France Ligue 1 – Caen v Lyon Preview (15/1/16)

Caen preview

  • The Normandie outfit are currently inside the relegation zone and are an inconsistent side. Most of their bad results have come away from home though. Only two teams have beaten them on their own patch.
  • Caen have one of the worst defences in the whole of Ligue 1, conceding a whopping 32 goals. Only Metz have a worse record and this is a big problem for Patrice Garande’s men.
  • The squad is at least in great condition with no injuries or suspensions to worry about. Key goalkeeper Remy Vercoutre returns from injury to face his former club. He was badly missed in the four games prior to the winter break because Caen’s backup keepers are terrible and made numerous mistakes.

Lyon preview

  • Les Gones ended 2016 with 7 wins in 8 matches. They started 2017 with a 5-0 rout of Montpellier in the cup and truth be told they could’ve scored double that amount.
  • When OL’s attacking lineup fires then it can look pretty irresistible. I’d expect them to be pretty sharp here especially as they are at full strength going forward.
  • The defensive duo of Emmanuel Mamama & Nicolas N’Koulou are both ruled out but neither have been a big part of the team this year, so won’t be missed.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • The expectation is that this will be a fairly high scoring away win. Lyon are on a -0.75 handicap and the goal line is set at 2.75.
  • I agree the logical outcome is something like a 1-2 or 1-3 away win but it’s not a great percentage play in France to be backing these sort of bets.
  • The weather forecast is for rain, potentially heavy at times which could make the match a little bit more unpredictable as well.
  • Caen don’t have a bad overall home record so might be able to spring a surprise. A lot depends if they can defend as well as they did against Nice and restrict OL.
  • I’m not convinced the Normans can keep it tight, but the prices aren’t tempting enough for me to get involved. So this is another no bet match for me.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None