France Ligue 1 – Dijon v Lille Preview (21/1/17)

Dijon preview

  • Les Rouges managed to grind out a 1-1 draw against Montpellier last week. However, they were clearly second best throughout and were lucky to avoid defeat. Only some poor Montpellier finishing and good keeping by Baptiste Reynet prevented a loss.
  • Dijon have won just 1 of their last 10 games and are hovering above the relegation zone only by virtue of goal difference.
  • Right back Fouad Chafik and midfielder Mehdi Abeid are both on African Nations Cup duty. Left back Arnaud Bouka Moutou is injured but isn’t a regular starter anyway.
  • DFCO have only lost twice at home all season and can be tricky to beat here at Le Stade Gaston Gerard.

Lille preview

  • Patrick Collot has only lost one match since taking charge of the team as interim manager. However, back to back 1-1 draws against Rennes and St Etienne at home are only average results and better was hoped for.
  • Lille have played noticeably better since Collot took over and there’s more confidence in the team. However, this is a side still languishing in midtable, yet to offer their true potential.
  • As many as four players are all away at the African Nations cup, although only one of those guys is a regular starter - midfielder Naim Sliti.
  • The rest of the squad is all fully healthy apart from defensive midfielder Rio Mavuba and young striker Martin Terrier.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Dijon don’t win many games but are possibly better than their results might suggest. A lot of their performances here at home have been impressive. It was worrying how many chances they conceded at Montpellier last week though. On another day Les Rouges could’ve lost 4-1 or 5-1.
  • Lille are also the sort of side who also miss too many chances, although their goalscoring has improved since Collot took charge. The bookies have both sides lined up on a DNB handicap and I feel this is capable of going either way.
  • I think over 2 goals looks a good bet, around about the 1.85 mark. You have to go all the way back to the end of October for the last time a Dijon match didn’t contain at least a couple of goals.
  • Lille have been involved in some higher scoring and entertaining matches since Collot took over at the helm and I think they'll come here looking to win so I’m hopeful of an open game of football.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.87 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)