France Ligue 1 – Guingamp v Rennes Preview (21/1/17)

Guingamp preview

  • Antoine Kombouare’s men blew a lead against Lorient last week, ultimately falling to a 3-1 defeat. They have now failed to beat both of the bottom two sides in recent weeks.
  • Guingamp do however have an excellent home record (6-2-1) and are very hard to beat in front of their own fans. Matches here tend to be less open and they defend better at Le Stade Roudourou.
  • Right back Jordan Ikoko and fellow defender Benjamin Angoua are both ruled out. However, pretty much everyone else of significance is available for selection.
  • Defence has been an issue with only one clean sheet kept in their last nine games.

Rennes preview

  • A poor run of 4 defeats in 6 games has seen Rennes starting to slide towards midtable. They haven't been playing well recently and a lack of goals has been especially noticeable.
  • Rennes lack a serious threat. They recently sold PG Ntep and Giovanni Sio is on African Nations duty. Midfielder Benjamin Andre is ruled out due to injury.
  • The visitors have a fairly poor away record (1-2-6) suffering a lot of defeats on their travels. Their one victory was in a Breton derby at Nantes though and this is a similar type of fixture.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • This match is being dubbed ‘Celtico’ a Brittany derby between two old rivals. Games between these two sides tend to be really tight with the away team not having a bad record in recent years.
  • Neither side is heading into the match with particularly great form, but Guingamp’s excellent home record could give them the edge. They are usually really hard to beat here and will bes desperate not to lose in front of their own fans for the third straight year in this fixture.
  • Quite a lot of Guingamp matches have ended over recently, but I have a feeling this will be a tight encounter. The goal line is set between 2 and 2.25 which doesn’t interest me much.
  • I would back Guingamp if their price was better. But 1.85 on a -0.25 handicap looks a very fair price, and if anything a little skinny. Rennes aren’t that bad and the draw risk is high here.
  • Overall, I see a close Guingamp win and nearly backed them. But overall I’ll leave this encounter alone.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None