France Ligue 1 – Nantes v PSG Preview (21/1/17)

Nantes preview

  • New Nantes coach Sergio Conceicao has gotten off to a flying start in the ligue, winning all four matches so far. What’s more impressive if the fact Les Canaris have yet to concede a ligue goal under his stewardship.
  • It seems like the new coach has managed to get Nantes’ identity back. They are a hardworking physical side who are hard to break down.
  • Squad condition pretty good with only goalkeeper Remy Riou ruled out. However, Maxime Dupe is a more than able deputy.
  • This will be Nantes’ third game in the space of a week so I expect some squad rotation. The likes of Diego Carlos at the back who was rated doubtful because of injury will probably be rested to the bench.

PSG preview

  • Laboured to a 1-0 win against Rennes last weekend but in general PSG have started 2017 positively with some good performances in the cup especially.
  • Both starting fullbacks are ruled out. Serge Aurier is on international duty and Layvin Kurzawa injured. First choice keeper Alphonse Areola is also injured.
  • PSG have plenty of quality depth to replace these players, but obviously it’s not an ideal situation. They are effectively at full strength in midfield and attack. New Argentinian signing Giovani Lo Celso is included in the squad for the first time.
  • PSG have won six and drawn four of their away games, with no draws thus far. They recently lost at places like Guingamp and Montpellier which was hardly very encouraging.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • If Nantes were fully fresh then this would probably be a tough match for PSG. Les Canaris have looked very solid under their new coach and very hard to beat at the moment.
  • However, this is their third game in a week, hardly ideal when you’re about to face PSG. This might force the coach to rotate the XI a bit and maybe in the second half they will start to feel it physically.
  • The visitors are a -1.25 favourite and there’s no guarantee that they’ll cover this line. In fact, there’s no real guarantee Les Parisiens will even win. Unai Emery’s men have produced several flat performances this season and have become unreliable.
  • My feeling is that PSG will be make to sweat really hard for victory This match might be a bit beyond Nantes though and something like a 1-0 or 2-0 away win is the most likely outcome.
  • Over 2.5 goals is odds-on and this looks too skinny, especially when you consider the amount of clean sheets Nantes have recently kept. It’s been a long time (9 games) since both teams scored in a Nantes fixture.
  • Overall, I’m happy to leave this match alone. Nothing really stands out and I don’t see any great value either way.

Prediction: 0-1

Recommended bet: None

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