France Ligue 1 – Lyon v Metz Preview (26/2/17)

Match preview

  • Lyon have been scoring for fun recently. They’ve scored at least four goals against Nancy, AZ (twice) and Dijon recently, so their confidence in the final third is clear to see.
  • OL are still making dumb mistakes at the back though and nearly blew it last week against Dijon. They needed late goals to ultimately prevail, but once again defensive frailties nearly cost them.
  • It’s difficult to see how Metz threaten them much today though, especially with a number of key creative players out. The whole squad isn't in great condition with a bunch of injuries everywhere.
  • The asian handicap line on Lyon is generally around the -2 mark. I think they'll cover this handicap but it’s just too big for me to get involved.
  • As a comparison, Monaco were -1.5 at home to Metz just two weeks ago. What has changed in that small space of time for Lyon  to now be two lines shorter?
  • Ok, Metz got battered 5-0 that day but Lyon aren’t as good as Monaco. For me, there just isn’t any value on the hosts today and I would be pig sick if I backed them -2 and the bet lost.
  • I personally think the goal line is way too high for this match too, in between the 3.25 and 3.5 mark. For this over bet to win there’s a good chance you’d need Lyon to score four goals themselves, because Metz could easily draw a blank.
  • If I had to take anything then I’d be Lyon -1.75 or Lyon to score over 2.5 goals. I do think they’ll claim a comfortable victory but I’m going to stick with the rulebook here and refrain from betting. This is a situation where I will disciplined and play the long game waiting for better value opportunities.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet: None

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player