France Ligue 1 – Nantes v Marseille Preview (12/2/17)


Nantes preview

  • Les Canaris didn’t play in midweek due to a postponement but this was probably more of a hinderance than a positive. All the preparation they did was for nothing and now they have no travel to Corsica to face Bastia this midweek due to the re-arrangement.
  • Squad condition is fairly good although playmaker Amine Harit is suspended. The attack duo of Jules Iloki & Yacine Bammou are both rated doubtful and probably won’t feature.
  • Nantes have generally done very well since Sergio Conceicao took over at the helm. He won his first four Ligue 1 games although since then a couple of defeats have dropped them back a bit.
  • Les Canaris are a very solid team with great defensive strength, but they also have limitations. Should this team fall behind there there appears to be a lack of ‘Plan B or C’

Marseille preview

  • OM have started 2017 with a couple of wins and three defeats. They bounced back well in midweek thanks to a 2-0 victory against Guingamp. Dimitri Payet scored his first goal for the club since re-joining, whilst Bafetimbi Gomis continues to be pretty hot upfront.
  • In their most recent away match, Rudy Garcia’s gamble to rest a number of key players backfired. They lost 0-1 at Metz and it really felt like a great chance was thrown down the drain. I can’t imagine he will start anything but his strongest possible side here.
  • The Marseille squad seems very settled dnow and they have no major absences compared to recent matches. The likes of Diarra, Bedimo and N’Jie aren’t included, but neither have featured properly for a while now so won’t be missed.
  • OM have a relatively poor away record, only picking up nine points so far this season on their travels. They have at least won a couple on the road under Rudy Garcia though.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Marseille are -0.25 favourites and whether this is right or not is fairly debatable. I feel this is an awkward matchup for them against a very physical Nantes who are hard to break down.
  • OM will need all of their technical skills to find a breakthrough here and might have to rely on a moment of magic from someone like Payet ot Thauvin to break the deadlock.
  • Nantes certainly have the potential to keep things tight but if they were to fall behind don’t see to have many idea how to get back into the match. The first goal is absolutely crucial in any of their games which makes betting on their fixtures fraught with danger.
  • This feels like an under match unless an early goal is scored. I’m surprised the goal line is between 2 and 2.25. I would have this down as a flat 2 goal line around the even money mark.
  • I think a 0-0 draw is a possibility here. If anyone is to win then I’d favour OM to maybe sneak it 1-0 or something. Nothing interests me from a betting point of view so I’m happy to leave it alone.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None