France Ligue 2 – Nimes v GFC Ajaccio Preview (24/2/17)

Match preview

  • Nimes are unbeaten in eight games and are actually playing some very good football. They have been missing a number of key players during this run but still manage to churn out good performances and results.
  • Their home record isn't as strong this season (only 2-8-3 here) but Les Crocos remain hard to beat and some recent displays at this stadium have been much improved.
  • I have said for a while that GFCA are a poor away side whenever they face someone half decent. The likes of Strasbourg and Amiens both comfortably beat them recently on the road and I'd be surprised if they got close to Nimes today.
  • GFCA are too limited going forwards and don’t score enough goals for my liking. I don’t see them getting many opportunities here because Nimes will probably dominate proceedings.
  • I personally think the hosts should be an odds on shot! Incredibly, they are a full 2.08 on a -0.25 handicap which is a really big price. My estimations are one and a half lines, out but in this instance I think the bookies have got it badly wrong.
  • Since August, if you take away their wins at Tours and Le Havre (who were both in shockingly bad form at the time), GFCA have lost seven and drawn two away games, only scoring twice in the process.
  • I’m very happy to pull the trigger on this -0.25 handicap. I think this is a great value bet and unless Nimes get reduced to nine men again, or miss a bunch of chances then a home win is definitely on the cards.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Nimes -0.25 @ 2.08 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player