Monthly Archives: June 2017

Norway Eliteserien – Stromsgodset v Molde Preview (26/6/17)

 

Match Preview

Heading into this match the big shock is that Stromsgodset are third from bottom after 13 games. You'd have obtained big odds on that at the start of the season! Godset don’t need to worry though, they will ultimately have more than enough to safely secure themselves in midtable. Their home record actually isn’t that bad (3-2-1) and really their main achilles heel is appalling away form. They have definitely underachieved, but are they that bad? I wouldn’t say so and recent performances have been relatively encouraging. The home victory against Viking here was easily their best display of the campaign (4-2)

Of course, beating Molde will be an entirely different matter. Should the visitors win today then they would be only five points off the top of the table. I personally think Molde are an overrated team though and a lot of their recent results have been fortunate. MFK have won 3 of their last 4 but in all of those instances I can point to situations of good luck. Odd completely dominated them yet they somehow Solskjaer's men fluked a late winner. At home to Stabaek they endured an extremely nervous second period in which they only just clung onto victory. The 3-0 against Tromso last week looks routine on paper, but at 0-0 Tromso missed some huge chances, which would’ve changed the game had they been taken.

Molde can’t keep relying on the opposition missing huge chances or goalkeeper Linde saving them with some good reflex stops. I have a feeling that Godset will be more clinical today, even if the likes of Marcus Pedersen haven’t been that sharp yet in 2017 so far. Any side visiting Marienlyst Stadion usually has a difficult task and Godset are traditionally very strong in front of their own fans. Molde won this fixture last season, but before that they lost three straight here. I think this will be an open game of football with chances at both ends so the first pick I like is over 2.75 goals. I’m less confident backing Godset -0.25 but I think there’s enough value to warrant the pick. Molde do not convince me defensively and I think sooner or later someone will really punish them by being fully clinical. Hopefully Godset convert their chances well here.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @1.93 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80) 

Recommended bet 1 unit: Stromsgodset -0.25 @1.92 (minimum odds acceptable 1.82)

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Viking v Haugesund Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

This is a big derby match between two fierce rivals and I think we will see a pulsating clash in which both sides give everything. Viking are a team who somehow find ways to drop points. They regularly concede late goals which has hindered their progress all season. Manager Ian Burchnall has been dealt a poor hand of cards this season, but in their current position it’s understandable why some people are talking about his position at the club. Defender Michael Ledger has left the club after a reasonably decent loan spell so they could be shorthanded at the back today. The squad is pretty threadbare anyway and this isn’t anything new for Viking.

Haugesund sensationally beat Rosenborg 1-0 last weekend and their defence has been surprisingly good this season. They've only conceded 9 in their last 11 games keeping 7 clean sheets in the process. I don’t particularly rate Haugesund that much but their ability to keep things tight needs to be respected. My gut feeling is that this will be a more open match than expected. Both of these fixtures were expected to be tight last season but exploded into life (4-1 & 3-2). Maybe the same will happen today? Viking DNB and over 2.25 does tempt me a little bit, but I would only be going on gut feeling and the best option here is to swerve the game. I think it’ll be a very interesting encounter though and worth a watch.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Tromso v Sandefjord Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

Tromso have only won 1 of their last 10 games and now find themselves inside the relegation zone. I think the odds are about here but there is no way I would trust the hosts at this 1.85 price. Head coach Bard FLovik is under massive pressure and was recently given a vote of confidence. He pretty much has to win this match otherwise he’ll be fired. Are the players behind their coach? I’m not sure, so in this sort of situation it would be very dangerous to bet on Tromso. Besides, Sandefjord aren’t a bad side at the moment and could be hard to beat here. They have lost 5 of their 7 away games though and have become unreliable on the road. I am leaving this match well alone and no result would surprise me.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Stabaek v Kristiansund Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

I was really really close to taking Stabaek either -1 or -0.75 here, but ultimately I can’t trust them enough on current form. They’ve conceded a massive 12 goals in their last 3 games and defensively looked all over the place. However, all of those fixtures were facing strong teams or sides in form, they are unlikely to be tested as much by a very limited Kristiansund outfit. The visitors are the worst side in the league in my opinion and have the worst playing squad on paper. However, they always fight very hard and will give maximum effort. They’ve actually only lost 2 of their last 8 games and it’s been a while since they got battered by anyone. I think this is a favourable matchup for Stabaek and I see a home win. But on a -1 handicap I guess I can give this one a swerve due to a few doubts. I do fancy Stabaek to deliver today though.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: None

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Sarpsborg v Brann Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

Two good teams on show here, who are probably playing the best football in Norway right now. I think it will a very interesting match to watch and it could be an intriguing tactical battle. But from a betting point of view, it’s a difficult one. I think the odds are set just about right and Sarpsborg -0.25 is right where the line should be. My personal feeling is that this will be a draw, either 0-0 or 1-1. Both teams will respect each other, possibly too much and a fairly tight match might develop. Brann have been scoring freely at home this season but have only scored 7 goals in 6 away games and they rely more upon defence on the road. Quite happy to leave this one alone and just watch it.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Sogndal Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

Rosenborg are clearly out of form, only winning 1 of their last 6 games which is a shocking return for a team of their expectations. Something isn’t right and they are especially struggling to create chances and score goals. It’s obvious how Sogndal will lineup today, they will try and park about ten double decker buses. It will be up to Rosenborg to break them down, which they may well do, but I couldn’t say so with too much confidence. I would be surprised if Sogndal created many chances here and the only way they can score is surely from a set piece. I can’t be taking RBK -1.75 and the best value bet looks to be under 3 goals. However, if Sogndal did implode it could get ugly because they are a very limited side who are highly unlikely to trouble the scorers today, they have no offensive threat. I’m happy to leave this one alone.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Aalesund v Odd Preview (25/6/17)

 

Match Preview

Odd have astonishingly drawn their last three matches 0-0 which is absolutely remarkable for this league! What’s worse is they probably deserved all three results and they simply don’t look like scoring goals at the moment. Odd have been relying on a watertight defence but they are missing key left back Thomas Grogaard here which might upset their balance a bit.  Aalesund have failed to win any of their last three games either but have been playing quite well and generally been in excellent overall form right back as far as the end of last season. I think they have enough to win today because Odd just haven’t impressed me of late, the hosts seem the more in-form team. Both sides are missing at least one starting defender each, maybe more depending on injuries so it could be more open than expected. Aalesund DNB is my selection, I don’t personally see Odd winning this one.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Aalesund DNB @1.79 (minimum odds acceptable 1.60)

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Valerenga v Lillestrom Preview (24/6/17)

 

Match Preview

The first thing to mention about this match is that it’s a big Oslo derby between two fierce rivals who hate each other. For these sort of games the formbook can sometimes be torn up completely, although on this occasion both teams are in relatively good knick. Valerenga are still very much a work in progress under Ronny Deila and we probably won’t see the desired results he wants until year 2 or 3 of his reign. However, VIF are a nice possession team who like to play football in an attractive way so he is clearly making his mark on the team. Sometimes I think they need to be more direct, but just 1 loss in 7 games is a pretty good run of form.

Lillestrom suffered a disastrous start to the campaign but they head into this match on the back of three straight wins and they look a completely different side at the moment. Dinosaur manager Arne Erlandsen made some tactical and personnel changes which have made a massive difference. Now that Lillestrom are converting chances they are starting to pick up a lot more points. They are hit hard by the suspension of Erling Knudtzon today though. He’s been one of the major reasons their form has improved. Since he moved upfront, the goals have flowed and they’ve looked much more dangerous. Now the big and ineffective units like Malec and Skoda will be in line to replace him and neither are very good.

It’s true that I don’t rate Lillestrom particularly highly and I have been ‘low’ on them all season. Sometimes this has cost me and I will admit they have improved, but in my opinion Valerenga are clearly the better side on display today. They missed key duo Ghayas Zahid and Robert Lundstrom to suspension against Godset last week, but both return here. Combine that with the Knudtzon suspension and I think the hosts deserve to be a strong odds-on price to win today. This is a derby match, so there should be a slight element of caution, but taking VIF on a -0.25 handicap makes sense to me. I believe there is at least one line of full value here, possibly more. I doubt this will be an easy win and with derby games anything is possible. I think the value is all on the home team though and they are too much of a juicy price to refuse here in my opinion.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Valerenga -0.25 @1.90 (minimum odds acceptable 1.60)

 

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Round 14 (24-26 June 2017)

Saturday 24th June

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-valerenga-v-lillestrom-preview-24617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Valerenga v Lillestrom - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

Sunday 25th June

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-aalesund-v-odd-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Aalesund v Odd - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-rosenborg-v-sogndal-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Rosenborg v Sogndal - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-sarpsborg-v-brann-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Sarpsborg v Brann - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-stabaek-v-kristiansund-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Stabaek v Kristiansund - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-tromso-v-sandefjord-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Tromso v Sandefjord - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-viking-v-haugesund-preview-25617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Viking v Haugesund - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]

Monday 26th June

[otw_shortcode_button href=http://www.meatmansoccer.com/2017/06/norway-eliteserien-stromsgodset-v-molde-preview-26617/  size="tiny" icon_position="left" shape="round" color_class="otw-green" target="_blank"]Stromsgodset v Molde - Preview[/otw_shortcode_button]