Norway Eliteserien – Stromsgodset v Molde Preview (26/6/17)


Match Preview

Heading into this match the big shock is that Stromsgodset are third from bottom after 13 games. You'd have obtained big odds on that at the start of the season! Godset don’t need to worry though, they will ultimately have more than enough to safely secure themselves in midtable. Their home record actually isn’t that bad (3-2-1) and really their main achilles heel is appalling away form. They have definitely underachieved, but are they that bad? I wouldn’t say so and recent performances have been relatively encouraging. The home victory against Viking here was easily their best display of the campaign (4-2)

Of course, beating Molde will be an entirely different matter. Should the visitors win today then they would be only five points off the top of the table. I personally think Molde are an overrated team though and a lot of their recent results have been fortunate. MFK have won 3 of their last 4 but in all of those instances I can point to situations of good luck. Odd completely dominated them yet they somehow Solskjaer's men fluked a late winner. At home to Stabaek they endured an extremely nervous second period in which they only just clung onto victory. The 3-0 against Tromso last week looks routine on paper, but at 0-0 Tromso missed some huge chances, which would’ve changed the game had they been taken.

Molde can’t keep relying on the opposition missing huge chances or goalkeeper Linde saving them with some good reflex stops. I have a feeling that Godset will be more clinical today, even if the likes of Marcus Pedersen haven’t been that sharp yet in 2017 so far. Any side visiting Marienlyst Stadion usually has a difficult task and Godset are traditionally very strong in front of their own fans. Molde won this fixture last season, but before that they lost three straight here. I think this will be an open game of football with chances at both ends so the first pick I like is over 2.75 goals. I’m less confident backing Godset -0.25 but I think there’s enough value to warrant the pick. Molde do not convince me defensively and I think sooner or later someone will really punish them by being fully clinical. Hopefully Godset convert their chances well here.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @1.93 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80) 

Recommended bet 1 unit: Stromsgodset -0.25 @1.92 (minimum odds acceptable 1.82)


Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player