Monthly Archives: November 2017

France Ligue 2 – Le Havre v Reims Preview (6/11/17)

Match Preview

My original intention was to avoid this game, but a couple of factors have swayed me to have a nibble on Le Havre. The first is actually the price and I believe we are getting a whole full line value on the hosts, who should be around the -0.25 mark. Secondly, two important Reims injuries might make the visitors unstable. Key man at the back Julien Jeanvier is a huge rock in the defence and missing him could be absolutely vital. In the middle of the park Xavier Chavalerin is an underrated player who contributes in many ways. The normal Reims tactic on the road against bigger teams is just to defend and keep things tight, but with a slightly different makeup of side, perhaps they won't find this so easy.

As far as Le Havre go, I struggle to make out this team but they are a decent outfit with a good home record. Nobody has beaten them in front of their own fans this season and they've claimed a few decent victories, including facing the likes of Lorient. Results over the weekend were favourable for HAC and a win would put them right on the coattails of the promotion contenders. It feels like this match matters more to the hosts, especially considering the fact Reims have a two point cushion at the top of the division. I’m not saying they will relax or anything but they know they’ll be two clear whatever the result tonight. Their away record of 5-0-2 has to be respected, but I don’t think Le Havre will lose this one so taking a DNB handicap seems a relatively safe play to me.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Le Havre DNB @1.97

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

 

France Ligue 1 – St Etienne v Lyon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

This is usually a cracking match to watch and full of great intense rivalry between two teams who hate each other. I have been burnt before betting on the fixture so I’m always reluctant to get involved. The formbook should be thrown out of the window, but I’d say it’s Lyon who have looked better recently. Historically, OL have a strong past record in these derbies too, although have now lost on both of their last two visits to Le Stade Geoffroy Guichard. I actually think St Etienne are great value on a +0.5 handicap. How on earth are Lyon odds-on here? These odds seems very strange to me, there is no way OL should be so short. If I had more confidence in Sainte right now, I’d totally back them. But they just haven't been playing well enough for my liking and something isn’t quite right. My best guess is a draw here but it could end anything so the most sensible option is probably to refrain from betting.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Caen Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

Marseille results have improved recently, and they may well win this match. However, I don’t think it’ll be easy against a Caen side who have been surprisingly hard to break down this season. Their defensive record is fairly impressive and most of their matches are fairly tight, containing relatively few goals. A whopping 10/11 of their fixtures have ended under 2.5 and I’m willing to bet on that happening again. In fact, I’m surprised a 2.75 goal line is on offer. I’m guessing the presumption is that OM will easily win and could potentially run riot. But they played in the midweek Europa League so that distraction won't have helped them. I think the hosts will labour towards a victory, maybe 1-0 or 2-0. It’s possible Caen could even get a point here and surprise everyone. Either way, I’m not expecting a classic so I think unders on this 2.75 line is sensible.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Under 2.75 goals @1.89

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Metz v Lille Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

First game in charge for new Metz coach Frederic Hantz, who I actually think is a terrific appointment. He has a good past pedigree in this division and his sort of style should suit Metz. This is a battle between the bottom two teams in the division and I’m expecting an open fixture. Often when two poor out of form teams play each other then things can get a bit frantic, and you've got to think both outfits will fancy their chances of the win. Both desperately need a victory and indeed the pressure is desperately on coach Marcelo Bielsa. He could be on his last legs and defeat would probably see him sacked. I don’t know why Metz are +0.25 underdogs and they look a good value bet to me. Who would back Lille as a favourite in any fixture right now? They look a mess, devoid of confidence and with the new manager factor to consider, I’m firmly in the Metz court for this one.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Metz +0.25 @1.86

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.92

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Nice v Dijon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

My concern with Nice is that their European endeavours this season have affected them too much. The backlog of games has been a real hindrance and they’ve struggled to juggle domestic and European matches. It’s also taken its toll on the squad in terms of injuries, with many key men often being ruled out. That's the same case again today and there’s a long list of absences. I really think Dijon are underestimated here and I like the idea of backing them on a +0.75 handicap. Les Rouges are better than their league position anyway and have picked up form recently. They've had a whole week of rest and I could see them catching Nice out in many ways. I also like backing over 2.5 goals because I think both teams will play in quite an open fashion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended up as an away win and I feel there is good potential for both bets to win.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Dijon +0.75 @1.94

    Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.5 goals @1.88

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

Norway Eliteserien – Molde v Kristiansund Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

Molde are in second place and must win this match in order to prevent Rosenborg winning the title today without a ball being kicked. But more importantly the three points would solidify their own silver medal aspirations. I wouldn't say Molde are necessarily the second best side in Norway right now. In my personal opinion Sarpsborg or even Stromsgodset are better or at least their equal. However, Molde have an incredible knack of scoring goals at the right time, especially late in matches. It’s amazing how many late goals have picked them up wins this season! Is it pure luck? It can’t just be a coincidence but I feel there is definitely an element of flukiness about it.

Kristiansund have done really well in the last few weeks to give themselves a great chance of avoiding relegation but the hard work still isn't over. They would be near enough safe by now had they not lost to rock bottom Viking, or blown late leads against Aalesund and Odd recently. This is a local derby so both teams will give their absolute all. Kristiansund will be well supported on the road and there should be a nice atmosphere. These two teams have played each other twice this season and Molde have won 1-0 and 2-1 (cup) respectively. KBK have kept things close each time and I expect they will again. But ultimately, I think Molde will find a way to win, and considering the fact KBK have been conceding late goals I wouldn't be surprised if we see the hosts grab a winner after the 80th minute mark, or even later.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Troyes v Strasbourg Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

The bookmakers can’t separate either side here and in some places Strasbourg are slight favourites. This is wrong in my opinion, Troyes do deserve some sort of favoritism, between a DNB and -0.25 handicap. Both teams are newly promoted and should fancy their chances of winning here. This fixture ended 4-0 last season and it could be a good opportunity for Troyes to win again. Neither outfit has looked great defensively of late and the step up a division is maybe taking is toll on everyone. But I would expect both will enjoy this game as a chance to flex their wings a bit and open up, leading to an end to end type fixture. I fancy the overs based on current form and match situation. The goal line looks generous with a 2.25 line offered around the 1.85 mark. Here is one of those type of games where anyone could win and a high scoring draw can’t be ruled out, so I’m happy to strike with the overs.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.84

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Nantes v Toulouse Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

Nantes aren’t a bad price here and could be backed on a -0.25 handicap at decent enough odds. However, I fear the draw too much. Toulouse are a solid team who aren't in bad form and won't be easy to break down. Nantes aren’t the most free scoring team at the best of times, they couldn't even net against Dijon last week and the first goal (if one is scored) would be absolutely massive here. Toulouse are missing rock at the back, Christopher Julien who is also very dangerous from set pieces. In addition, left wing back Moubandje is injured. This could tip the scales in Nantes’ favour and maybe allow them to sneak another 1-0 win. But I haven't been impressed with them in the last 2-3 weeks, so I’ll leave this one alone. It goes without saying this match also has strong under potential, but the line is 1.75 and too low for me to fancy getting involved.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Montpellier v Amiens Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

This is an interesting game because statistically I think Montpellier aren't a bad value bet here. Either they are being underestimated or Amiens overestimated, I’m not sure. In my eyes the home team should be closer to a -1 Asian Handicap. However, betting value doesn’t always guarantee success and this might be a potentially hard match for Montpellier. They will be facing a side hard to break down and who will fight hard for everything in a physical way. I don’t expect this match to be a classic by any means and it’s a likely under. Ultimately, I think Montpellier may well find a way to win the game, just. But the risk of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw puts me off backing them. When you factor in the poor pitch at this stadium, and the possible chance of a thunderstorm at some point, I’m happy enough to leave this one alone, although on pure price MHSC are generous odds.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Guingamp Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

It’s a shame that both teams miss some decent attacking talent here, otherwise it literally could've been full of goals. Monaco are renowned for dealing with injuries well, but some of the men they miss here are crucial. Thomas Lemar especially is a massive player for them in the final third, and Falcao’s goalscoring record speaks for itself. I still think Monaco will probably find a way to win this match, it’s amazing how often they manage it with a depleted squad. Guingamp are no mugs though and I expect they’ll stay in the game right until the end. If both teams were at full strength I’d certainly have been interested in backing over 3 goals, and maybe even Monaco on a handicap, However, due to the absences involved I'm going to have to refrain in this instance.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player