Monthly Archives: November 2018

France Ligue 2 – Lorient v Lens Preview (30/11/18)

Both teams are overrated to a degree. I have said all season that Lorient aren’t the extreme force some make them out to be, but the same could be said about Lens at the moment too. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games and could only draw 0-0 vs Grenoble last week. In truth, they never really looked like breaking them down in that match and it was a deserved result. Lens haven’t actually really beaten anyone good away from home this year which is why I fancy Lorient more tonight. I personally think each of these two teams are fairly equal which begs the question why Lorient are such a big price on a -0.25 Asian Line? It’s not very often I’ve said it this season, but FCL look a bit of value for once. I was tempted to play them but overall I think there is a big chance of a draw in this fixture so I will leave it alone.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=910414655&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Clermont v Beziers Preview (30/11/18)

Match Preview

I have to say, I respect what Beziers have done this season away from home. To have already won five away games is a fantastic achievement considering their limited resources, fair play to them. But I do think tonight the newly promoted side will be in for a tough time. Clermont are actually one of the best teams in Ligue 2, in fact I would go as far to say they are they are as good as 6th in terms of quality, and probably better in terms of recent form. They can play some delightful stuff under the management of Pascal Gastian and should have enough to deliver the 3 points tonight. It's worth noting that Clermont have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 games, so have a knack of defending well too. Beziers have been amazingly impressive at times and will possess a threat on the counter attack but injuries are starting to rack up and logically Clermont are the better outfit who should be able to take advantage. Their price on the -0.5 and -0.75 Asian line is very generous so I’m happy to take a slice.  

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Clermont -0.75 @2.08

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=406724329&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Chateauroux v Sochaux Preview (30/11/18)

Match Preview

Things have been so bad for Sochaux recently that they sacked Jose Manuel Aira. It simply isn't working under the spanish coach and they’ve replaced him with Senegalese Omar Daf who made nearly 200 appearances for the club during his playing career. I think this is a good move and will certainly be popular amongst the fanbase. Daf has a few injuries to deal with here tonight but it’s very possible he could get more out a team which definitely has some talent on paper. Chateauroux themselves made a coaching switch recently and Nicolas Usai has picked up 7 points out of 12 so far, including impressive 1-0 away wins at Lens and Niort. I don’t think we can expect too many frills under his guidance but they are effective. I think Chateauroux -0.25 and over 2.25 are value picks for this match but there is way too much uncertainty for me to bet. If Sochaux turned up much improved under Daf I wouldn't be surprised.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=1213051642&single=true

France Ligue 2 – Brest v Ajaccio Preview (30/11/18)

Match Preview

For me, the gulf in class is quite big here. Brest are one of the best teams in Ligue 2 and unbeaten in 11 matches, of which they have won 8 of those contests. Perhaps there is some slight doubt regarding them due to a collection of recent draws, but they have dominated the likes of Orleans and Red Star yet somehow not won. I am fully expecting them to assert their authority on Ajaccio, who just seem a shadow of themselves this year. On the road they haven’t impressed much, and this can't be a surprise because historically they’ve always struggled away. Ajaccio have failed to score a goal in 4 of their last 5 road trips and I’m not expecting them to threaten much without key attacker Riad Nouri, who misses out again. Brest welcome back Yoann Court from suspension and his creativity can help them power towards a comfortable win. -0.75 handicap looks more than generous here because really -1 is a more accurate and fair one for this fixture.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet: Brest -0.75 @1.97

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=1048372943&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Le Havre v Auxerre Preview (30/11/18)

Match Preview

Le Havre have become quite an inconsistent side, but on paper I still consider them to have one of the strongest teams in the division - good enough that they could and should become a promotion challenger if they can string a decent run of results together. However, the stats say they have lost 4 of their last 6 games (3 on the road) which isn’t too great. I think they can collect another win tonight against an Auxerre outfit who are very hard to predict. A few weeks ago they looked absolutely terrible but seem to have picked themselves up thanks to wins at Metz and Sochaux. It’s slightly worrying that they seem more comfortable on the road, but I definitely don’t trust them yet.

 

The coaching of Pablo Correa is questionable and tonight they will be missing defender Samuel Souprayen who has been in great form of late, plus their #1 keeper Matthieu Michel. I perhaps would have left this game alone but there is no way Le Havre should be a -0.25 line at home to Auxerre. They are the better team for me so this line offers some value. It would help their cause if they actually started £2m summer signing Tino Kadewere. He has yet to be given a start following a long injury layoff but his extra skill and class could wreak havoc on a defence which on a bad day can be really exposed.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: Le Havre -0.25 @1.96

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=1775610483&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – GFC Ajaccio v Niort Preview (30/11/18)

Match Preview

Really tough game to predict. The odds look set very fairly in terms of asian handicap and over/under. Niort tend to be involved in low scoring matches and whilst I feel that GFCA will naturally become more open and an overish sort of team under their new coach, right now they are in transition. The pitch won’t help here and possibly lead to a close, tight sort of game which feels drawish.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCWTKiifxhUqrqes0CH3jV8ZpmhsxCXNEZRxDGfO5Yc5hSVJ3OgYkSrRUwl42sgLNiqgIUmswjOsuJ/pubhtml?gid=1934953114&single=true

France Ligue 2 – Metz v GFC Ajaccio Preview (26/11/18)

Match Preview

Metz can go outright clear at the top of the table by three points tonight if they win. I expect them to prevail but it might not be as easy compared to what some think. Metz have been a bit sluggish in recent weeks, losing at home to Auxerre and then only labouring to a 2-1 win vs Chateauroux despite playing against 10 men for over 75 mins. Despite all this, they remain the top side in the division, along with Brest and should show their quality here. The Metz squad is at full strength and they’ll be pleased to have this game on a Monday night, hence giving them extra preparation of the back of an international break. Perhaps it’s a slight concern that they’ve lost 2 of their last 3 home games by a 0-1 scoreline, but Le Havre and Auxerre do have quality squads on paper and tough defences on a good day.

GFCA Ajaccio don't really have that luxury and they certainly don’t have a defensive minded manager any more. If Albert Cartier was still in charge of GFCA then we could expect them to totally park the bus here but new head coach Herve Della Maggiore is a much more ambitious animal. For anyone who was familiar with his Bourg-en-Bresse teams in recent years it was quite refreshing to see such a positive, if at times cavalier approach. Already since taking over at the helm, 3 out of 4 GFCA matches have ended over 2.5 goals, and this is no coincidence. Maggiore has won his last two games 2-1 and whilst a victory tonight would be a big shock, I don't think he will come here and be timid. Therefore, I think the best bet for the match is over 2.5 goals. Metz -1.25 could also cover, but I am convinced GFCA can be threat tonight and at least score a goal, in which case you’d need Metz to net three times in order to cover the handicap. So I’m siding with the over 2.5 line and anticipate quite a decent, open game of football.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @1.90

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRigutGiU9S3juX_NEf-WcapAiqkN8xgEIX4TmeHUc1_ENLzjLmVen8Hs_76NlcTLCrhAkcItLCeo0/pubhtml?gid=366498067&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Lens v Grenoble Preview (24/11/18)

Match Preview

I’m not really sure what has happened to Lens. They were ticking along nicely but then lost three consecutive games, a couple of which were against relatively poor teams. The international break probably came at a good time for them and I expect the 2 weeks off will have given the opportunity to refocus and recharge. Lens are still one of the top teams in this division and should bounce back sooner rather than later. Grenoble aren’t a bad side by any means and have been surprisingly good this season. But I don't see them in the elite class of the division yet and if Lens perform near to their best then this should end up a home win. I am surprised that nearly even money is on offer and that the home side can be backed on a -0.25 handicap around the 1.70 mark. I am happy to take this line because I believe in the class of Lens to find form again and grab 3 points.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: Lens -0.25 @1.73

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRigutGiU9S3juX_NEf-WcapAiqkN8xgEIX4TmeHUc1_ENLzjLmVen8Hs_76NlcTLCrhAkcItLCeo0/pubhtml?gid=952322755&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Sochaux v Auxerre Preview (23/11/18)

Match Preview

For me, this is the toughest match of the day to predict. Auxerre have badly underachieved this season, although have improved recently. They are still far from trustworthy. Sochaux meanwhile, can be absolutely anything on the day and are ridiculously inconsistent. I am not ruling anything out here and perhaps it’s one of the candidates to finish in a draw tonight. There is nothing from a betting perspective that I am interested in taking. Good luck to anyone who wants to get involved!

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRigutGiU9S3juX_NEf-WcapAiqkN8xgEIX4TmeHUc1_ENLzjLmVen8Hs_76NlcTLCrhAkcItLCeo0/pubhtml?gid=1331564219&single=true

 

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Red Star Preview (23/11/18)

Match Preview

This is a battle between the bottom two teams in the division who are both absolutely in dire need of a win. I have always had a theory that fixtures like this tend to me much more open than expected, due to the extra desperation from each side and the sheer fact both must surely fancy the win and hold no fear. Whether that will happen here I’m not sure. Nancy have struggled so desperately for goals this season that they really can’t be relied upon to hit the back of the net, whilst Red Star really haven’t fared an awful lot better. It’s probably not the sort of match to get involved in but Nancy have looked improved under the management of Alain Perrin and they are due a win, so maybe it could come here. But in all honestly anything could happen here due to the nature of both being so poor.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRRigutGiU9S3juX_NEf-WcapAiqkN8xgEIX4TmeHUc1_ENLzjLmVen8Hs_76NlcTLCrhAkcItLCeo0/pubhtml?gid=1213051642&single=true