Valenciennes are teetering just above the relegation zone and won just 2 of their last 15 games . One of those was a shock 4-2 success at home to Lens a few weeks ago. This is a similar type of fixture so perhaps they can take some comfort from that result. Metz are deserving favourites although to have them so short around the 1.75 offers no value at all. I would say something around the 2.10-2.20 mark would be fairer. Despite all that, I am expecting them to win fairly easily tonight. This is going to be their last match of 2018 due to their scheduled fixture on Friday getting postponed. With nothing else to look ahead to, I expect a fully focused Metz who will aim to finish the year in style and on top of the table.
Metz haven’t been as free scoring as they were in the early stages of the season. They have faced a number of teams recently who have been willing to dig in and be really defensive against them though, so it’s perhaps understandable. My concern for Valenciennes here is that they have a habit of being way too open and potentially allowing big chances. They have just been fortunate themselves that they’ve faced poor attacks or negative teams like Paris FC, Beziers & Niort recently and been allowed to ‘get away with it’ Metz have the firepower and ability to fully take advantage. I like the overs for this game and I will be aggressive and take over 2.5 goals at a bigger piece. I just see this as better value than being conservative and taking over 2.25 at poorer odds. Metz could cover this line on their own, although I suspect Valenciennes will have a go themselves and might score. It’s a shame for the hosts that key playmaker Gaetan Robail isn’t available but this should still be quite an open game containing numerous chances.
Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @2.07