Monthly Archives: August 2019

Norway Eliteserien – Stabaek v Strømsgodset Preview (31/8/19)

Match Preview

It’s 12th vs 16th in the table here. Stabaek have been gradually keeping their heads above water under manager Jan Jonsson but they always know they are just a few bad results from getting in big trouble again. Defeat today would see Godset close within just one point. The visitors have won two and lost two under their new boss Henrik Pedersen. Both victories have come at home and in their most recent away match Viking thrashed them 4-0. I’m not sure which way this one will go. I think it could be a close encounter with not much separating either come the final whistle. Probably the most important factor for both is not to lose so a draw wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. In terms of betting, not a lot interests me. Stabaek are -0.25 favourites which is fair enough and the over/under 2.5 line is set around the 1.95 mark. Something like a 1-1 draw is going to be my rediction but to be honest anything is possible here.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Lorient v Guingamp Preview (31/8/19)

Match Preview

Here we have a battle between a couple of teams who until recent years were more used to battling it out at Ligue 1 level. Lorient have started this campaign much better and sit top of the table with 4 out of 5 wins. It just shows what a huge difference investing in a high quality coach can give you. Christophe Pelisier has got Les Merlus playing much better football and they are clearly a major promotion contender this season. No squad problems today apart from long term injuries. Lorient will fancy themselves today because Guingamp aren’t in the best of form. The recently relegated club only have 5 points on the board and have been guilty of twice blowing 2-0 leads this season. Those sort of things can really affect a side mentally and they lost on Monday night at home to Valenciennes which has to be classed as a really poor result for Les Costamoricains. Guingamp have added Frandtzy Pierrot and Yannick Gomis to their attack in the last week or so and perhaps they can make a difference. There is easily enough quality in this squad to challenge at the top of the table but they don’t seem to be in the best mental state right now. Lorient are 2.10 favourites which is about fair. I was tempted by over 2 or 2.25 goals because these two teams only have three clean sheets between them all season. But this is a derby match which neither will want to lose which might lead to a tighter affair. I think based on recent form Lorient will have the edge and maybe sneak victory but I will leave this match alone from a betting point of view.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v Clermont Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Clermont haven't lost a match inside 90 mins yet this season although defeat on penalties in the Coupe de la Ligue on Tuesday night might have dented their confidence somewhat. Pascal Gastien's side have generally started the campaign pretty hot though and bookmakers give them the honour of being -0.25 favourites tonight. This is probably a bit too short. Whilst they are a better team than Valenciennes I think the hosts deserve a bit more respect. VA have won all of their last 3 games including a surprise success 1-0 away at Guingamp on Monday night. Whether they can repeat that here I'm not sure but I wouldn't fancy betting against them too much. This feels like a draw to me. If anyone is to win then Clermont are the more likely but a point each is going to be my prediction.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Orleans v Niort Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Somewhat surprisingly, Niort are unbeaten in 6 games in all competitions. I still don't rate them that much as a side and in the long run it could still be a challenging campaign. But I said last week that winning breeds winning and confidence. Things are definitely going their way, such as in midweek when they prevailed on penalties vs Grenoble in the cup. Orleans on the other hand have started quite slowly, yet to win and only have a couple of points on the board. Last week they conceded very late to draw 3-3 with Grenoble and then on Tuesday blew a 2-0 lead at Le Mans in the cup. There are signs that Orleans are finding their scoring boots again but home defeats to Chambly and Clermont, both 0-1 haven't been particularly inspiring. The hosts are odds on favourites around the 1.90 mark which is fair enough. I think they can win tonight but I am reluctant to trust them yet, especially facing a Niort who have momentum.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Rodez Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Nancy lost for the first time last week when they fell 0-3 at Sochaux. It was a disappointing performance from the Lorraine side, easily their worst of the season. I won't hold it against them too much though because a trip to Sochaux isn't easy for anyone at the moment. Nancy have been fairly inconsistent and this is a really tough match to predict. Rodez seem to have adapted to life fairly well in Ligue 2 and are competitive in all areas of the field. Nothing would surprise me in this game although maybe I'd edge towards Nancy. Results on the road for Rodez haven't been that great with a 0-0 at Chateauroux and 0-1 at Valenciennes. The odds look about right so I'll predict a draw and not get involved.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Le Mans v Sochaux Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Le Mans have yet to pick up a single point in the league and have lost all five matches, four of which have been by a 1-2 scoreline. I really don't think they have been as bad as their results suggest and had they taken their chances at the right time could easily be sitting with at least 5 or 6 points on the board. The one area of solace for them has been in the cup when a couple of wins must have made them feel better. On Tuesday night Le Mans came from 0-2 down to draw and then win on penalties against Orleans. Perhaps they can carry some momentum into this fixture facing a Sochaux side who are very solid right now. Omar Daf's men won't win any awards for style but even they managed to score three goals last week vs Nancy at home. I am less convinced by them away from home though and I personally consider Le Mans as good statistical value here. Really they should be a -0.25 favourite at absolute worst but instead we can grab a DNB Handicap. Whether they can be trusted is a different question entirely. Le Mans feel like a really naive side to me and in big moments always seem to fall short mentally. There is no doubt that Sochaux should have a tactical, disciplinary and mental edge and won't be easy to beat. Overall it's probably a match best avoided. I would like to back Le Mans but until they get their first win, or even their first point there will always be doubts in the head. 

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Chateauroux v Troyes Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Chateauroux have a couple of points on the board but only thanks to some 0-0 draws. La Berrichonne haven't actually scored a single goal in the league yet this season and appear totally toothless in attack. To be honest, they look pretty poor all over the pitch and I sense this is going to be an extremely challenging campaign for the club. Maybe coach Nicolas Usai will end up getting sacked at some stage but it must be remembered he did a remarkable job finishing so high last season with such a poor squad. Troyes visit tonight and should be full of confidence after beating Lens 2-0 last weekend. It was easily the best performance under new head coach Laurent Battles. I think they will have enough to win tonight but at the current price I'm happy to avoid betting. Statistical value is actually on Chateauroux and I don't think Troyes deserve to be a -0.25 favourite. However, the home team are so poor right now and can't be trusted, so on this occasion the bookmakers might not be wrong with their assessment. I looked at under 2 or 2.25 goals but Troyes have scored in every match this season which kind of puts me off. An exact 0-1 away win could be a strong possibility.

Prediction: 0-1

Recommended bet: None

 

France Ligue 2 – Auxerre v Ajaccio Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

Ajaccio have been going surprisingly well this season winning 3 out of 5 matches. All of them have been by a 1-0 scoreline including a couple of successes away from home. ACA were terrible on the road last season so it's obviously encouraging for them how things have improved this term. Here they travel to an Auxerre outfit who have only won once under new head coach Jean Marc Furlan. I always said not to expect instant success with this team and so far they've been fairly inconsistent. A couple of recent draws vs Guingamp when 0-2 down and then at Clermont last week another point was earned from a losing position. Auxerre have conceded the first goal in 5 of their 6 matches which is an area in which improvement is needed. I am personally surprised that the home team are odds against to win. I would have AJA as a strong -0.75 favourite and there is some value on backing them here IMO. Ajaccio had to travel all the way to Nancy in the midweek cup whilst Auxerre had a full week off which is another positive factor towards this bet. The extra quality Auxerre possess on paper should shine through in the end.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Auxerre -0.5 @2.07

 

Norway Eliteserien – Odd v Bodø/Glimt Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

 

Both teams head into the contest in good spirits. Odd managed to draw 2-2 away at Molde last week which is a result that keeps them in the title race. Fagermo's men are 7 points behind table toppers Bodo/Glimt who they face in this Friday evening clash. It goes without saying that a defeat would all but end any gold medal hopes. To be honest, even a draw isn't enough because a potential seven point gap to both Glimt and Molde is probably too much to overcome. So Odd are effectively in 'must win' territory. The bookies make them favourites around the 2.05 mark on a -0.5 Asian Handicap.

Bodo/Glimt hammered VIF 4-0 on Monday night to move back clear at the top of the Eliteserien. Molde are still sniffing behind them and of course Odd can't be ruled out either. Glimt have a lot of really tough away matches yet to play, starting here at the Skagerak Arena on Friday night. They beat Odd 3-0 earlier in the season but this will probably be a tougher contest. Glimt have achieved remarkable things this season but whether they can keep going in the final third of the campaign is a different question entirely. My prediction is for Odd to win but I think a better bet is over 2.75 goals. Glimt matches have regularly been wild this year, every single one of their contests have contained a least 2 goals. All of the matches between the top teams this year have been high scoring and I'm expecting something similar here. There's enough attacking talent on show to deliver an over match.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 2.75 goals @2.04

 

France Ligue 2 – Caen v Le Havre Preview (30/8/19)

Match Preview

I don't really get why Le Havre are favourites for this match. Ok, they have started the season well and remain unbeaten but they aren't anything special yet. Key to their form is striker Tino Kadewere who has been in sensational form. The Zimbabwean leads the scoring charts with 8 goals and I have to admit he looks red hot right now. Paul Le Guen obviously has something good going with HAC. Here we have a Normandy derby, a fixture which hasn't actually been played competitively for over 5 years. There should be quite a spicy atmosphere and maybe we will get a cagey affair which neither team wants to lose. Caen have their limitations at the moment especially in attack where they are lacking the firepower compared to some of the other big teams in this league. However, the hosts are solid enough and hard to beat. I personally think Caen should be a -0.25 favourite but instead Le Havre are given that honour on a DNB line. The value is definitely with Caen but I can trust them at the moment and I do think there is a very strong chance of a draw here. 

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None