Auxerre have been wildly inconsistent this season under Jean Marc Furlan. There are times when you think they are on their way towards really challenging at the top of the table, but then they regress. An example of this was in their previous home game vs Troyes which was lost 1-2. Then last week although a 2-2 draw from 0-2 down was a decent comeback at Niort, the overall standard of performance wasn’t really good enough. Auxerre are a work in progress and I think we have to accept they will blow hot and cold until things settle down. They are pretty much what you’d expect from a JM Furlan side though in that plenty of threat is carried in the final third. The big difference compared to his Brest team is that they don’t anywhere near as solid defensively. It’s pretty staggering that AJA have only kept one clean sheet all season.
That statistic bodes well for Ligue 2 leading scorer Tino Kadewere. He has 10 goals to his name although hasn’t been as sharp in recent matches. He had a poor game vs Chateauroux, which Le Havre lost 0-1 and they simply can’t just rely on Tino to get them over the line every week. Paul Le Guen had a great start in charge of HAC, not losing any of his first 8 fixtures. But no win in 3 games has seen them hit the buffers. I suspect this type of fixture will suit them better though. I have noticed how Le Havre have struggled to break down certain rigid sides who park the bus like Paris FC & Chateauroux. However, put them against more attack orientated outfits such as Lens & Troyes and they can cause plenty of problems going forward. The obvious pick to me here is over 2 goals. You could take over 2.25 or even 2.5 at bigger odds if you preferred. Every Le Havre away match has ended over 2.5 this season, whilst Auxerre matches average 3 goals per game so far. I think Auxerre can take the points but I am unwilling to back them due to poor reliability and will just stick with the over.
Recommended bet: Over 2 goals @1.75