Monthly Archives: August 2020

Eliteserien – Betting Record August 2020

August key stats:-
Staked: 19pts
Profit: +1.07
Yield: 5.6%

This was an 'all or nothing' month with 10 winners, 1 half winner and 8 full losers. It's fairly unusual for me not to have any pushes, half losses and just one half win during a typical calendar month. Brann cost me twice, as did a couple of under bets that went way over. +1.07 was probably a fair outcome and acceptable profit for this month. It has been a solid season so far and I managed to build on the awesome July. Hopefully can keep up the momentum as the autumn approaches.

Date Match Bet Result
30/8/20 Viking v Molde Over 3.5 goals @1.86 WIN +0.86
30/8/20 Rosenborg v Stabaek Over 3 goals @1.86 WIN +0.86
30/8/20 Odd v Mjøndalen Under 2.75 goals @1.93 LOSE -1
29/8/20 Brann v Strømsgodset Brann -0.75 @1.93 LOSE -1
22/8/20 Vålerenga v Sandefjord Vålerenga -0.75 @1.90 HALF WIN +0.45
22/8/20 Strømsgodset v Viking Over 3.25 goals @1.90 LOSE -1
22/8/20 Kristiansund v Sarpsborg Kristiansund -0.25 @1.92 WIN +0.92
22/8/20 Aalesund v Haugesund Over 2.75 goals @1.93 WIN +0.93
22/8/20 Molde v Odd Over 3 goals @1.84 LOSE -1
16/8/20 Rosenborg v Aalesund Over 3.5 goals @2.01 WIN +1.01
16/8/20 Sandefjord v Bodø/Glimt Over 3.5 goals @2.01 LOSE -1
16/8/20 Brann v Mjøndalen Brann -0.75 @1.93 LOSE -1
9/8/20 Rosenborg v Sarpsborg Under 2.5 goals @1.90 LOSE -1
9/8/20 Mjøndalen v Haugesund Under 2.25 goals @1.93 WIN +0.93
9/8/20 Kristiansund v Start Kristiansund -0.5 @1.60 WIN +0.60
9/8/20 Aalesund v Viking Over 3.25 goals @1.83 WIN +0.83
8/8/20 Vålerenga v Bodø/Glimt Over 3.25 goals @1.84 WIN +0.84
5/8/20 Molde v Start Over 3.25 goals @1.84 WIN +0.84
1/8/20 Sandefjord v Molde Molde -1.25 @1.91 LOSE -1

Norway Eliteserien – Sandefjord v Kristiansund Preview (30/8/20)

Match Preview

Sandefjord have fought very hard in their last two games vs Glimt and VIF but succumbed to late goals on both occasions (1-2). They are sitting in 13th position and if they were to remain there at the end of the season then it would be a great achievement. This is a poor team on paper, led by an excellent manager that tends to get the best out of the squad of players. Sandefjord can’t be underestimated at home where they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games. It might not be pretty all the time but an ability to grind out a result, or nab a goal when needed tends to be at trend with this team.

Kristiansund should be good enough to pick up a victory today and they are in good enough form. Just one loss in their last 7 games came at Odd and they’ve won 4 of their last 5. In Amahl Pellegrino I think it’s fair to say they have one of the best players in the league who has been red hot this season. One word of caution could perhaps be their away record which is rather inconsistent, and has been for the last few years. Sometimes they can put in a stinker of a performance when you least expect it, often when they are fancied to win. I see them getting the job done here but the price doesn’t tempt me enough.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Viking v Molde Preview (30/8/20)

Match Preview

Viking picked up a much needed victory and a rare clean sheet when they beat Godset 2-0 last week. It was a wide open match and Viking just took their chances in the last 15 mins to collect the points. They have been mostly below par this season and only sit 2 points clear of the relegation zone. Viking haven’t been able to string together any consistency this season but have shown more positive signs in the last few weeks. The main problem has been keeping clean sheets and their defence simply hasn’t been as reliable in 2020.

Molde travel here in a relatively comfortable second position but their league form has been poor, especially away from home where they’ve suffered defeats at Glimt, Sandefjord and Sarpsborg. MFK have however been doing well in the Champions League qualifiers and their mojo may well be back after some good results in the last 10 days or so. Magnus Wolff Eikrem is suspended today but probably wouldn’t have started anyway. The obvious bet with most Molde and Viking games is over 2.5 goals, so let’s not think too hard and back this option. Both sides love to attack and have shown defensive vulnerability. Maybe a 2-2 draw or a 3-2 victory for someone, depending who converts their chances better.

Prediction: 2-3

Recommended bet: Over 3.5 goals @1.86

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Stabaek Preview (30/8/20)

Match Preview

Rosenborg aren’t actually in bad form and have won 7 of their last 10 games. This isn’t a surprise because on paper they have one of the best teams in the league. Goalscoring has improved recently with the likes of Islamovic looking much more dangerous. Kristoffer Zachariassen from midfield has been their best player and a fantastic signing from Sarpsborg. RBK have a few players still on the treatment table like goalkeeper Andre Hansen. The wing duo of Helland and Adegbenro are ruled out and of course they’ve sold players such as Melling, Tronsdsen, Lundemo etc. 

Stabaek travel here winless in six games and they are starting to slide down the table. Their defence has become shaky and looked vulnerable in recent weeks probably, something that will probably be their downfall here. Rosenborg can also be ‘got at’ defensively and they aren’t the same solid unit we expect of them. I was also thinking of backing Rosenborg on a -1 handicap but I think the safer bet is over 3 goals. Stabaek could nick a goal themselves so something like 3-1 or even 4-1 maybe on the cards.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.86

Norway Eliteserien – Start v Aalesund Preview (30/8/20)

Match Preview

Start had somewhat of a revival in form by beating Vålerenga but they crashed down to earth by getting hammered 0-6 by Glimt last week. They are not the first team and probably won’t be the last to get smashed by the table toppers so we perhaps shouldn’t judge them too harshly. It’s fixtures like this which will determine their survival. We have a battle between the bottom two teams in the table although Aalesund are some way adrift right now.

This match would be a bankver over bet but for the fact that Aalesund have a new manager. They sacked Lars Bohinen and replaced him with ex Brann boss Lars Arne Nilsen. Strange things can happen when there’s a manager change at any club. Maybe AFK will suddenly be more defensively sound? LAN will surely look to tighten things up but maybe he will need some extra time, such as the international break to implement his tactics. I think this will probably be a higher scoring game due to the desperate position both teams are in but I can’t be taking over 3.25 goals after the shake up at Aalesund.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Sarpsborg v Bodø/Glimt

Match Preview

Bodø/Glimt continue to tear things up in the Eliteserien. They are top of the table by 7 points and have a game in hand on Molde. Glimt are unbeaten and have won 13 out of 15 games, scoring a mammoth 53 goals in the process. They are a machine and have even been smashing the Europa League in midweek as well. This team doesn’t seem to be getting complacent or showing any signs of dropping off form. Squad condition remains good with only goalkeeper Joshua Smits (doubtful) and centre back Brede Moe injured. There is not much else to say about Bodø/Glimt apart from they are a top class side who look very hard to stop right now.

Sarpsborg have been inconsistent recently but have won 4 of their last 5 games at home. This includes beating Molde 2-1 recently and they are no mugs. Goalkeeper David Mitov Nilsson is still injured, as is winger Mohammed Ofkir. It was interesting that Sarpsborg proved to be quite competitive in the reverse fixture where they just sat really deep and made it as difficult as possible for Glimt. It was a match that the table toppers only won 2-1 and a rare occasion a fixture of theirs didn’t go over 3.5 this season. This will probably be an away win but Sarpsborg’s home form puts me off backing anything.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Odd v Mjøndalen Preview (30/8/20)

Match Preview

Odd lost away at Molde last week and it ended their five match winning streak. Odd have nevertheless been in great form of late having won 7 of their last 9. Credit must go to coach Jan Frode Nornes for doing a great job this season. In the previous meeting between these sides just a few weeks ago I was impressed with how Odd asserted their dominance on the game. They appeared to have few problems handling the physicality of Mjøndalen and attacked them outside with low crosses which seemed to cause all sorts of havoc.

Mjøndalen are however in better form and probably more confident than they were at the end of July. They have won 2 of their last 3 games, which were 1-0 wins vs Haugesund and Brann. MIF can be a tough nut to crack and you just know they will try anything possible to get some points. Gamesmanship, time wasting and playing for set pieces will be on their agenda. Under 2.75 goals definitely temps me here. Odd don’t have particularly high scoring matches and actually 5 of the last 6 MIF games all gone under. I see something like a 1-0 or 2-0 Odd win in which the visitors just try and stay in the game as long as possible.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: Under 2.75 goals @1.92

Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Strømsgodset Preview (29/8/20)

Match Preview

Brann got their first win under new coach Kåre Ingebrigtsen as they beat Stabaek 2-0 on Monday night. The match itself was a bit of a non event with relatively few chances and action to write home about. However, they grabbed a poachers goal from Robert Taylor and then Daouda Bamba sealed the victory right at the death. Brann are probably never going to play proper fancy football under Ingebrigtsen but he is a very effective manager and experienced at this level. Goalkeeper could be a problem here with Opdal and possibly Aahamada injured. Youngster Markus Pettersen could be getting the gloves again. The rest of the squad however looks in good condition with no new injury or suspension concerns. Brann have failed to win any of their last four home games.

Travelling here are a Strømsgodset side in tenth position and who have a big problem keeping clean sheets. It’s something they’ve only managed since the second round of season. I suppose it’s not too much of a surprise considering the amount of injuries they’ve suffered at the back and once again there are problems. Key man Nikla Gunnarsson is rated doubtful whilst Leifsson appears to be a casualty once more. The obvious bet with Godset matches is usually an over but the line here is set at 3.25. Do you trust them to score against Brann? I’m not too sure I do because they fired blanks against a more porous Viking side last week. SIF have won the last two meetings, including the infamous 6-0 at the end of last season. Brann should be too strong today though and I like the idea of backing them on a -0.75 Asian Handicap. They should be buoyed by their Monday night victory and I see something like 2-0 or 3-1.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Brann -0.75 Asian Handicap @1.93

Norway Eliteserien – Haugesund v Vålerenga Preview (29/8/20)

Match Preview

Both sides beat newly promoted teams last week and in the case of Haugesund it was probably a relief to pick up another 3 points. They have been below par this season and kind of hovered above the relegation zone for the majority of the campaign. They now have a bit more of a comfort zone although their inconsistency continues to be a frustration. They blow far too hot and cold and the general problem for most of the season has been a lack of goals. Things have improved of late and they scored 3 times vs Stabaek & Aalesund and also weighed in with a brace vs Godset. The return of Ibrahima Wadji from his year long doping ban has definitely helped. Wadji brings much more of a presence to the side and is a physical beast when in the mood. The normally reliable defence has now gone four games without a clean sheet which isn’t very impressive when you consider the caliber of opponent faced recently.

Vålerenga travel here in 5th position and they are in the hunt for a bronze medal spot this season. They came from behind to beat Sandefjord late last week (2-1) scoring a couple of goals past the 85th minute. Dag Eilev Fagermo has got this bunch of players performing much better than in recent years, the question is whether they can remain consistent. It is usually around this time of the year when ‘Enga drop off a bit but I don’t see it happening this year. Defensive duo Sam Adekugbe and Ivan Nasberg are both doubtful due to injury. On the Haugesund side of things right back Mikkel Desler is rated questionable. This is a tough match to call and it could go either way. A draw feels about right with maybe 1-1 a possible option. I think both teams could score but at the same time I’m not convinced the match will open up. The odds look about right so this is a clear no bet match for me.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Stabaek v Brann Preview (22/8/20)

Match Preview

Is there a more difficult team to predict in the Eliteserien than Stabaek? You never know which version of them you are going to get and even within the same match their persona seems to change. Last week they blew a 2-0 lead against Viking to fall behind, but then managed to scramble an equaliser to earn a 3-3 draw. Stabaek are actually winless in 5 games but have drawn plenty of matches this season, a total of 6 out of 14 which is the joint most in the league. The one thing I will say about Jan Jonsson is that his team selections are fairly consistent. He doesn’t like to over complicate things if possible and probably the biggest problem he’s encountered recently is at the back where either injury or suspension has led to a few changes. Yaw Amankwah is rated doubtful and so is Jørgen Øveras.

Brann sacked Lars Arne Nilsen and immediately won their first match without him as they went and shocked Molde 2-1 away from home. It seemed like Brann had turned a new corner and the hire of Kåare Ingebrigtsen appeared to give everyone a lift. However, the ex RBK coach suffered defeat at home to Mjøndalen (0-1) and Brann inexplicably failed to make the most of their dominance. The same old problems reared their ugly heads as the likes of Bamba simply weren’t clinical enough in front of goal. In between both boxes Brann looked quite decent last week but the lack of a final ball or decent shot cost them, in addition to one slack moment in defence when they switched off.

This Monday match is probably the hardest fixture of the round to predict. Anything with Stabaek involved is tricky at the best of times but we are still trying to understand the impact of Ingebrigtsen on Brann. There are a lot of question marks on both sides so I think it probably makes sense to avoid betting on the game. Brann have a good recent record between the two teams in terms of H2H and on paper have the better team. Maybe a draw is most likely here but in all honesty nothing would surprise me.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None