Bodø/Glimt find themselves in a fantastic position, seven points clear at the top of the Eliteserien table with a game in hand. Their closest rivals Molde have been in bad form recently to give them this cushion. I am not entirely convinced Bodø/Glimt have been at their best either though. A couple of 2-2 away draws vs Stabaek and Vålerenga were less than convincing whilst they only just managed to dig out a 2-1 victory away at Sandefjord last week. Glimt have a 100% home record but last time they played a match at Aspmyra credit must be given to Godset for pushing them close in what was a tight 3-2 victory. Nobody expected this team to challenge for the gold medal this season and at some stage the reality of the situation will hit everyone hard what a great position they are in. Every team has a sticky spell somewhere and I’m vigilant that Glimt could be on the verge of it soon. Key defender Brede Moe has been out for a few weeks now whilst striker Kasper Junker has a knee injury. The top scorer in the league is also strongly linked with a move to Turkish side Besiktas.
Travelling here are a Start side who should be buoyed by a last gasp victory against Vålerenga on Monday night (2-1). They are now a lot closer to safety and have shown signs of picking up form. I expect them to approach this match quite negatively and basically park the bus in a 5-4-1 formation. They did this against Molde away a couple of weeks ago and eventually got well beaten 5-0. But for about an hour Start stayed in the game and were competitive. It was actually only a couple of penalties which led to their initial demise. Only a late goal denied them something at Kristiansund in their most recent away match and this is a team that might have turned the corner.
The only two viable betting options are Glimt -1.75 Asian Handicap or over 4 goals. Nothing else can really be considered so you have to ask yourself the question of which of those bets is more likely to cover. Glimt have a 100% record for over 2.5 games this season and their matches average a whopping 4.6 goals per game. The 4 goal line seems a bit high to me here though. Like I said, my expectation is that Start will just play very defensive and will continue to do so even if they do fall behind. Without Junker the home side will lean on Victor Boniface who is a good striker but I’m not sure he offers the same overall threat. I am tempted by the Glimt handicap because I see something like a 2-0 or 3-0 victory for them eventually. However, they are in a situation where they just need to win matches and there’s no need to rack up the score. This has the potential to be a frustrating afternoon for them against a side that will fight hard. I’m going to refrain from betting just in case we get a 1-0 or 2-1 game. Glimt should cover the -1.75 handicap in some form but this feels like a ‘trap’ sort of match.
Recommended bet: None