Monthly Archives: October 2020

France Ligue 2 – Le Havre v Pau Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Pau finally got their first win of the season and it came in style last week when they hammered Niort 4-1. I sense they have been gradually improving anyway and it was a matter of time before they managed to pick up 3 points. On loan Metz attacker Cheikh Sabaly was a really good pick up for the 2nd straight season and has caught my eye with some of his performances. The Pau attack force actually looks fairly dynamic right now and it feels like their offence could keep them competitive. It might need to because defensively Pau haven’t looked great at times. A trip to Le Havre could yield something today because HAC are missing players and aren’t necessarily great themselves. I could see something like a 1-1 draw or even a shock away win.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Rodez v Auxerre Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Auxerre’s form has read LWLWLWLW this season, so they are due a loss then? This is the problem they are too inconsistent and can blow very hot and cold. One thing I will say is that Auxerre have had a fairly tough fixture schedule this season and most of their losses were facing strong teams. Maybe this is a good opportunity away at a Rodez outfit who have lost their last 3 games. RAF themselves though are very up and down and literally capable of anything on the day. Auxerrre ‘should’ have the extra quality and class needed to prevail but whether you would trust them as a -0.25 or DNB favourite on the road? I’m not sure I could but I do predict AJA get the 3 points and finally start to string together some results.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Chateauroux Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Nancy have been a difficult side to predict this season and just to further muddy the waters they haven’t been seen on the field for 2 weeks. Their match last weekend vs Grenoble was postponed so in theory the Lorraine outfit should be pretty fresh here, although mabe lacking sharpness too. Nancy were quite impressive facing Dunkerque last time out and should have another chance to fill their boots vs a poor looking Chateauroux who are depleted again due to COVID cases. A total of five players are missing due to the virus and key midfielder Remi Mulumba is suspended. Backing Nancy @1.90 maybe wouldn’t be the worst option in the world because they should win. But the inconsistent nature and a history of draws kind of puts me off. Something like a 2-1 or 2-0 home victory should be expected though.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Guingamp v Sochaux Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Guingamp are an interesting case under new coach Mecha Bazdarevic. They have won 3 and lost 3 under his stewardship and seem to be inconsistent between performances. I suspect we shall see them rebound today but I don’t think I could be trusting them around the 2.0 mark to win. Sochaux finally lost for the first time this season on Monday night - but it was a couple of late goals that did for them vs Amiens (0-2). This is a tricky side to face and they can be hard to break down. One thing that Bazdarevic has brought to Guingamp matches are low scoring encounters. They’ve now had 5 straight unders in matches where only one team has scored. Something like a 0-0 can’t actually be ruled out and whilst I’d say a 1-0 or 2-0 home victory is more likely this doesn’t feel like the sort of match to get involved in.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Haugesund v Aalesund Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Haugesund

FKH bounced back extremely well after their 1-5 hammering to Start a few weeks ago. Jostein Grindhaug’s men have won back to back games 1-0 vs Sarpsborg and 1-0 vs Viking. When it really mattered their defence came up with a couple of much needed clean sheets. They are now situated in a fairly comfortable midtable spot a good 9 points clear of any sort of relegation trouble. The pressure is now off but Haugesund must surely look at this match as another good chance of picking up a maximum point haul. Both full backs are likely out of this match. Key man Alexander Stolas definitely misses out due to suspension whilst Mikkel Desler is doubtful due to injury. FKH should be at full strength in midfield and attack.

Aalesund

It is now 9 games lost in a row for AFK and new coach Lars Arne Nilsen is still waiting for his first point in charge of the club. Aalesund haven’t always been playing badly under his stewardship but they continually shoot themselves in the foot. It seems like the first goal against them can totally cripple confidence and in their most recent away game it was worrying how they collapsed vs Stabaek (0-4). Aalesund have lost 8 out of 10 games on the road this year and only picked up 2 draws. Team selection isn't the easiest to predict and neither is their overall mentality. It looks like midfielder Fredrik Carlsen will miss out here due to injury and there are some other defensive doubts.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Haugesund -1.25 or -1.5 probably wouldn't be a bad bet here. They should take victory and in all honesty there’s a decent chance of a blowout. At some stage Aalesund will surprise someone though. We are starting to get to the stage where there’s no pressure on their shoulders and they can play with freedom. If Haugesund aren’t sharp, and there’s a chance they could make mistakes considering they played midweek in Viking then maybe Aalesund could be more competitive than expected. I think the best bet for the match is over 3 goals. Haugesund could cover this line on their own but there’s a good chance that the visitors have a 'proper go' as well. There should be plenty of opportunities for at least 3 goals and probably more.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @2.0

Norway Eliteserien – Odd v Sarpsborg Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Odd

A return to winning ways was just what Odd needed last week as they cruised past Aalesund 3-0. It wasn’t the most convincing performance and especially in the first half they were labourous but ultimately got the job done well. Odd had shown some signs of slipping up in their hunt for a medal spot, most notably the horror of letting slip a 4-1 lead vs Haugesund with not long left. Attacker Robin Simovic is likely injured but key right back Espen Ruud returns from suspension for the home side - who have an excellent 7-1-2 record at the Skagerak Arena this season. 

Sarpsborg

Here they face a Sarpsborg side who have lost their last two games. Mickael Stahre’s men are situated comfortably in midtable but don’t have a great away record - losing 6 out of 10 times on the road this season and generally lacking goals. I don’t really believe in H2H records but Sapsborg have a terrible record at this venue and it’s been a long long time since they last won here. For the visitors centre back Jorgen Horn is done for the season after recently injuring his cruciate ligament, whilst right winger Halvorsen is suspended. There are doubts over the strike duo of Mos and Guillermo Molins.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I don’t personally trust Sarpsborg on the road and think Odd can get the job done here. They are formidable at this venue and are in all honestly the better team anyway. It might not be the most open game of football but over the course of the 90 mins Odd should have the measure of their opponents and have enough about themselves to win. Sarpsborg have a few injury doubts and absentees and it just feels like they've drifted off form this year. I’m happy to back Odd on a -0.5 Handicap around the even money mark.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Odd -0.5 Asian Handicap @2.0

France Ligue 2 – Ajaccio v Troyes Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Ajaccio

The Corsican outfit dug in last week to beat Clermont 2-0 away from home. It was a grafting display in which the defensive nature of the team earned them the win, in addition to a couple of penalties. Ajaccio always have a dogged nature under manager Olivier Pantaloni and although they rode their luck last week some would argue they deserved something. The squad actually isn’t in bad condition with only midfielder Mathieu Coutadeur injured along with left sided man Quentin Lecoeuche. ACA have struggled at home this season, winning just one game and scoring only 2 goals in 4 matches. Lack of goals - especially form open play has been an achilles heel all year so far and they are lacking proper bite in attack.

Troyes

The visitors aren’t doing badly by any means and are one of a number of sides currently situated in joint second position on 14 points. Maybe more could have been expected of Troyes but they are unbeaten in four games and are steadily making progress. They did well to draw 1-1 with Valenciennes last week despite being down to ten men for the majority of the contest. Yoann Salmier will be suspended for this clash as a result. A quartet of attackers are on the sidelines including a new injury to Alimami Gory. Guys like Barthelme, Hyun Jun Suk and Lenny Pintor have been out of action for a number of weeks now. ESTAC have only won 1 out of 4 road games and not been particularly impressive on their travels thus far.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The bookies are fairly split here and have both sides priced on a DNB Asian Handicap. Troyes are slight favourites and this is fair, they are the better team and possess that extra quality. I doubt this will be a great game of football and its likely to be cagey and low scoring. It might even be a 0-0 contender with maybe a set piece at either end deciding matters. If I had to bet something then it would be under 2 goals but I don’t have a strong enough feeling either way if I’m being honest.

Prediction: 0-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Paris FC v Caen Preview (31/10/20)

Match Preview

Paris FC

Rene Girard’s men are now five points clear at the top of the table after beating Chateauroux 2-1 last week. It was a good performance and their margin of victory should have been greater. Paris FC are sometimes guilty of missing chances but their creation levels are really impressive, a far cry from the days of when Mecha Bazdaerivc was in charge and they sneaked 1-0 wins or grind out draws. Girard has transformed this team into a well oiled unit and they look impressive. Paris FC have won 3 out of 4 home games this season with the only loss coming in a 0-2 defeat to Nancy, which was unlucky. Every game in Ligue 1 and 2 is now going to be played behind closed doors until Dec 1st (at least) but that shouldn’t affect Paris FC too much as they are used to low crowds anyway. Midfield duo Moustapha Name and Kikonda are both suspended but I don’t think either would have started anyway.

Caen

I have to give Caen credit, they played much much better than I expected last week in the face of adversity. The club has been in a bit of COVID crisis with a number of players ruled out due to the virus. It looked like guys such as Anthony Weber, Yoel Armougom and Nicholas Gioacchini will be missing once more and attacker Caleb Zady is injured. Centre back Steve Yago could return but is doubtful. There was also a scare to goalkeeper Remy Riou who went down injured in training this week. He should be fine to start though. Caen have lost their last two away games and it worries me that their performances at Valenciennes (0-1) and especially Niort (0-3) were well below the standard required.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I went against Caen last week and they totally proved me wrong. However, I feel that this will be a tougher fixture for them. Paris FC are perhaps the standout side in the division right now and seem to have all bases covered. They are attacking really well but also defending excellently as a unit. PFC have that knack of ‘finding ways to win’ which is the sort of quality title winning or promoted teams seem to have. Backing the hosts on a -0.25 Asian Handicap looks like a good bet to me. I have to respect Caen after last week but maybe their absences will catch up with them here and there’s also a chance they could be outclassed.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Paris FC -0.25 Asian Handicap @2.09

Ligue 2 Betting Record Sept & Oct 2020

September & October key stats:-
Staked: 17pts
Profit: +1.08
Yield: 6.35%

First couple of trading months in Ligue 2 this season at least yield a profit. Guingamp matches have been very costly with 3 of my 7 losers coming in their fixtures. It is always a tough grind in this division so to bring any profit out of a month is acceptable.

Date Match Bet Result
31/10/20 Paris FC v Caen Paris FC -0.25 @ 2.09 WIN +1.09
24/10/20 Caen v Guingamp Guingamp DNB @1.90 LOSE -1
24/10/20 Auxerre v Chambly Auxerre -0.5 @1.88 WIN +0.88
24/10/20 Chateauroux v Paris FC Paris FC -0.25 @2.04 WIN +1.04
24/10/20 Clermont v Ajaccio Clermont -0.5 @2.0 LOSE -1
17/10/20 Paris FC v Pau Paris FC -0.5 @1.97 WIN +0.97
17/10/20 Le Havre v Chateauroux Le Havre -0.5 @2.01 LOSE -1
3/10/20 Auxerre v Ajaccio Auxerre DNB @1.75 WIN +0.75
3/10/20 Caen v Amiens Caen DNB @1.79 WIN +0.79
3/10/20 Toulouse v Troyes Toulouse DNB @2.02 PUSH 0
3/10/20 Dunkerque v Guingamp Guingamp -0.25 LOSE -1
3/10/20 Paris FC v Le Havre Paris FC DNB @1.74 WIN +0.74
28/9/20 Troyes v Clermont Troyes DNB @1.89 WIN +0.89
26/9/20 Toulouse v Auxerre Auxerre +0.25 @1.83 LOSE -1
26/9/20 Chambly v Chateauroux Under 2 goals @2.04 LOSE -1
26/9/20 Guingamp v Grenoble Over 2.25 goals @2.09 LOSE -1
26/9/20 Valenciennes v Caen Under 2 goals @ 1.93 WIN +0.93

Norway Eliteserien – Stabaek v Viking Preview (1/11/20)

Match Preview

Stabaek

One of the hardest sides to predict in the league picked up a 1-1 draw at Brann last week. Prior to that they put in an excellent performance vs Aalesund although quite what we can take from that match I’m not sure. Jan Jonsson’s men have won their last 3 home games here at the Nadderud Stadion and that is perhaps one of the reasons why they are 2.10 favourites here. Key midfielder Emil Bohinen is suspended today which is a big blow. Stabaek have certainly shown a willingness to attack more recently and they aren’t under any pressure in the table, comfortable 8th and well clear of relegation. They finished last season well under Jonsson’s management so maybe they could repeat that this term.

Viking

After a 3 and a half week hiatus Viking were back in action on Tuesday night and lost 0-1 at home to Haugesund. Viking weren’t that bad or anything just seemed to lack sharpness. That is understandable when the whole squad effectively had to be locked down for 10 days due to COVID isolation. Maybe some rotation could take place here, especially with them facing Odd in midweek just a few days later. I would expect Viking to ‘come on’ from that run out vs Haugesund though and an improvement should be seen today. The Viking offense had been in good form prior to the COVID issue and it would be a surprise to see them shut out again. Bjarne Berntsen’s men have won their last 3 consecutive matches on the road.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The bet that screams out to me here is goals. The previous meeting this season ended in a wild 3-3 and there were chances galore. This is a 7th vs 8th clash and both teams are situated comfortably midtable with no pressure on their shoulders. Viking certainly like to have a go and attack regularly whilst I’ve seen signs of Stabaek being very proactive of late. The goal line of 3 is a little bit stingy but I really think this bet will at least push. Either team could win, it’s just a question of who takes their chances better.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.89