Monthly Archives: November 2020

Norway Eliteserien – Mjøndalen v Stabaek Preview (29/11/20)

Match Preview

Mjøndalen

  • Defeat 0-1 at Kristiansund last week was their 9th in 11 games
  • It hasn’t been all bad recently though as victories over Brann & Godset have given them hope
  • Only 4 points off the relegation playoff spot, so have everything to play for
  • Squad in good health with no major injuries or suspensions to worry about

Stabaek

  • Defeat against Molde last week ended a four game unbeaten run
  • Notoriously hard to predict, Stabaek are very up and down capable of anything
  • Just 2 away wins out of 12 this season
  • No new injuries or suspensions 

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Very tough game to predict here. MIF are fighting for their lives and it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see them get a decent result. Stabaek can literally be anything on the day and it depends what sort of version of them shows up or how motivated they are. I suspect quite a low scoring sort of physical tussle with not that many clear cut chances. The previous meeting this season ended in a 0-0 draw and last year this particular fixture ended 1-0. Mjøndalen still have fixtures vs Aalesund & Start to come so picking up anything here would be useful, even a draw. Nothing from a betting perspective interests me.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Molde v Haugesund Preview (29/11/20)

Match Preview

Molde

  • 5 out of 6 recent wins in the league has them back in control of second place in the Eliteserien
  • Great home record this season with 9 victories out of 12
  • Injury problems at the back. Martin Bjornbak and Kristoffer Haugen likely out
  • Watch out for squad rotation following a midweek Europa League clash with Arsenal

Haugesund

  • Back in form after winning 4 of their last 5 games
  • Sitting comfortably in midtable, unlikely to move form the 8th-10th range
  • Mixed 4-2-6 away record
  • Midfield duo Niklas Sandberg (inj) and Bruno Leite (susp) both ruled out

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I’m always a little bit wary of betting on Molde after European involvement this season. After their trip to the Emirates they dropped points at home to Kristiansund (2-2) and they were given quite the run around by the Gunners again on Thursday. I think Molde should be winning this match but they might put in a substandard sloppy display in which they concede a silly goal somewhere. Haugesund are kind of freewheeling with no real pressure on their shoulders and I expect they’ll come here with a positive sort of mindset. I like the idea of backing over 3 goals because I see this being an open game. Both teams should be able to contribute and I wouldn’t rule out FKH actually bagging something like a 2-2 draw. Molde may well just edge things overall but backing them on a handicap doesn’t really interest me. 

Prediction: 3-2

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @ 1.89

Norway Eliteserien – Bodø/Glimt v Rosenborg Preview (29/11/20)

Match Preview

Bodø/Glimt

  • Confirmed as champions after beating Godset 2-1 last week
  • Still fighting for points total and goal records
  • Immense 100% home record this season with 12/12 wins
  • Marius Lode, Brede Moe (CBs) & Patrick Berg (CM) all still ruled out

Rosenborg

  • Now lost last two games after a big setback midweek at home to Brann (2-3)
  • CM Markus Henriksen & #1 keeper Andre Hansen still ruled out
  • Anders Konradsen & Pal Andre Helland likely casualties again too
  • Away form still their achilles heel with only 5 wins out of 12

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I think the real question here is whether or not there will be a drop off in performance from Glimt. They have just won the title this week and I would imagine celebrating quite a bit, it's just natural. I’ve seen it before in some leagues where teams wrap up the title early there is some sort of slack or below par performance before the end of the campaign. This Glimt side is very professional though and they will want to rack up as many goals and points as possible. Rosenborg have been disappointing in both of their last two outings and aren’t in good form. A price of around evens on Glimt might look really big come the end of the game but over 3.25 is the bet that stands out to me. Glimt have 23/25 over 2.5 matches this season with 17 of those ending over 3.5. RBK can be inconsistent with goals but this should be a shootout with chances at both ends.

Prediction: 3-2

Recommended bet: Over 3.25 goals @2.0

Norway Eliteserien – Vålerenga v Sarpsborg Preview (29/11/20)

Match Preview

Vålerenga

  • Unbeaten in 6 game and won 6 of their last 9
  • Draw a Aalesund last week a slight setback but ‘Enga remain 3rd in the table
  • Third best home record in the league, unbeaten with 8-4-0 stats
  • Squad in good condition with no major injuries or suspensions

Sarpsborg

  • Suddenly under pressure after losing 4 of their last 5 games
  • Poor away record this season, losing 7 out of 12 times
  • Offensive player problems with Mos & Mollins both doubtful
  • Centre back Jorgen Horn ruled out for the rest of the season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I’m pretty confident that Vålerenga will win this match. They are much the better team and in far better form. In front of their own fans at the Intility Arena Fagermo’s men have been imperious this season and strung together some excellent displays. Sarpsborg have really struggled of late and seem to be hitting the rocks at an awkward time. The quality VIF attack should be able to fill its boots today and I personally think Sarpsborg will be toothless themselves. Taking VIF on a -1 Asian Handicap makes some sense. They should at worst win, but in all reality I’m expecting something like 2-0 or 3-0 here.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet: Vålerenga -1 Asian Handicap @2.03

Norway Eliteserien – Kristiansund v Strømsgodset Preview (29/11/20)

Match Preview

Kristiansund

  • Got the job done 1-0 against MIF last week to stay in European contention
  • Was their first win in 5 games after a really tough fixture schedule
  • Attacker Bendik Bye is ruled out due to injury and striker Flamur Kastrati still suspended
  • KBK have a mixed 5-4-3 home record this season

Strømsgodset

  • Now winless in 11 matches and lost their last four straight
  • Can’t stop conceding goals but also lacked firepower as well
  • No new injuries but fullback Nico Mickelson doubtful
  • Just 2 away victories all season and 6 defeats out of 12

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Defeat at home to Glimt last week put Godset in the relegation playoff spot. One positive from Saturday for them was Start losing at Viking, which eases the pressure somewhat. But SIF need to start picking up some points again, with a victory really what is required to get them back on track. Last season they won here in the latter stages of the season to help avoid relegation but this time around I’m not so confident. Kristiansund have more to play for compared to that fixture and are quite frankly the better team. There’s usually a few goals when these two teams meet so I think over 3 looks a decent bet. Godset can’t be relied upon to keep things tight at the back but KBK themselves don’t usually have that many clean sheets either. KBK to win around the 1.95 could look a big price come the end of the match but I think I'll just stick with the over.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.89

France Ligue 2 – Clermont v Nancy Preview (28/11/20)

Match Preview

Clermont

  • Just 2 losses in 10 games has put Clermont inside the top 6 places
  • One solitary victory at home is perhaps the only concern heading into this game
  • Squad in perfect health with everyone available
  • Jordan Tell and David Gomis in contention to start after bench stints recently following injury recovery

Nancy

  • Lost on Tuesday night away against Grenoble 0-1
  • Had COVID issues which prevented them from playing a match for 3 weeks
  • Injuries to 4 regular starters including playmaker Amine Bassi & defender Souleymane Karamoko
  • Lost 4 out of 6 away matches this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I betted against Nancy on Tuesday night and it was ultimately successful. They didn’t create much doing the loss to Grenoble 0-1 and although generally defended ok it was clearly a struggle. They looked rusty and off the pace a bit, which was to be expected after having a long break since their last match. I personally think Clermont will be too strong today. They perhaps haven’t won as many matches as they should have this season but Pascal Gastien’s men have been playing some decent football. Home form has been surprisingly poor but they can improve on that by picking up another 3 points today. When Clermont have won matches this season it’s mostly been by at least a 2 goal margin so taking a -0.75 Handicap makes sense to me rather than just on the nose.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Clermont -0.75 Asian Handicap @2.06

France Ligue 2 – Auxerre v Valenciennes Preview (28/11/20)

Match Preview

Auxerre

  • Finding form. Unbeaten in 4 games and beat top of the table Paris FC 3-0 last week
  • Early season inconsistency has shown major signs of improvement
  • Good home record, won last 4 consecutively here
  • DMID Birama Toure is the most significant absence through injury but the squad is mostly healthy

Valenciennes

  • Just 1 win in their last 6 games which was the wild 5-4 victory at Toulouse
  • Away form hasn’t been great, overall losing 3 out of 5 games
  • No clean sheet in last 4 games, conceding 10 in this period
  • Wing back Laurent Dos Santos remains an important injury absence

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Auxerre really made their mark last week by beating top of the table Paris FC 3-0 away from home. It feels like to me they are just starting to warm up and it could be their year to go up under promotion specialist Jean Marc Furlan. On paper, Auxerre have one of the best squads in the league and it’s finally starting to show. Their form at Le Stade l’Abbe Deschamps has not been this good for a long time and I expect them to stamp their authority on Valenciennes today. The visitors aren’t a bad unit by any means but I’m concerned how vulnerable their defence is looking recently. Auxerre have plenty of firepower to take advantage of these issues. You can back AJA straight on the nose around the 1.80 mark which is totally acceptable but I prefer a -0.75 handicap at bigger odds. There’s a good chance if they win that it’s fairly comfortable in my opinion.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet: Auxerre -0.75 Asian Handicap @2.06

France Ligue 2 – Caen v Chateauroux Preview (28/11/20)

Match Preview

Caen

  • Back up to third in the table after a derby win against local rivals Le Havre last week (2-1)
  • Won 4 of last 6 games and possess a strong home record, conceding just 1 goal in 5 fixtures here
  • Squad in near perfect health and they have no suspensions

Chateauroux

  • Miracle escape last week, scoring twice in stoppage time saw them beat Sochaux 2-1
  • That result ended a run of three losses in a row but in general Chateauroux have struggled of late
  • Fullback Chaker Alhadur still injured
  • Lost 3 of their last 4 away games

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Chateauroux are a weird team with which anything is possible and last week rather summed them up when they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat late. This is a club that have endured plenty of problems this season, not least COVID issues a few weeks back. Caen really should have too much for them here in my opinion. If they perform like they did in the 2nd half at Le Havre last week it won’t be a problem for them to get 3 points. I would expect Caen to keep a clean sheet so potentially just one goal could be enough to see them to victory. Taking the hosts straight on the nose around the 1.95 is the bet that appeals to me with their extra quality and class proving the difference.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Caen -0.5 Asian Handicap @1.95

France Ligue 2 – Grenoble v Paris FC Preview (28/11/20)

Match Preview

Grenoble

  • Top of the table battle between 2nd and 1st
  • 100% home record with 5 out of 5 wins following 1-0 success vs Nancy on Tuesday
  • One of the best defensive records in the division
  • No new injuries or suspensions and nobody of significance ruled out

Paris FC

  • Defeat at home to Auxerre last week (0-3) was only their second of the season
  • Still top of the table and that loss snapped a five game winning streak
  • Key striker Gaetan Laura returns to the match squad which is big - they’ve missed him
  • Best away record in the league with 4 out of 5 wins with one draw
  • Key versatile man Lalaina Nomenjanahary remains out injured until the new year

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Here we have an intriguing battle between the current top two in the division. Grenoble have looked good recently and managed to squeeze past Nancy on Tuesday night, winning when not quite at their best. I just wonder how much momentum Paris FC will have lost after their surprise 0-3 home defeat to Auxerre last week. They have the quality to rebound but this set of fixtures coming upon them is going to be a real test. Key striker Gaetan Laura returns to the squad after injury and they have massively missed his dynamism. The odds look about right with Grenoble a favourite on a DNB handicap. Over 2 or 2.25 did interest me because I could see this being a reasonably open contest. However, these top of the table contests can sometimes be tight so I’ll swerve. I've got the feeling Grenoble edge it as they are in a winning mode.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Aalesund Preview (28/11/20)

Match Preview

Brann

  • Huge win 3-2 away at Rosenborg on Tuesday night was their first in 11 games and eased some relegation fears
  • Had to hang on in the end but overall much better performance and a massive improvement
  • 2nd worst home record in the league this season with a terrible 2-4-6 record
  • No new injuries. Daniel Pedersen (CM) is out for the season and GK Ali Ahamada is still in quarantine

Aalesund

  • Officially relegated with a defeat and all but down with even a draw
  • Worst away record in the league with a 1-2-9 record
  • Offensive problems with key playmaker Niklas Castro still out and Sigurd Haugen suspended
  • Manager Lars Arne going back to the club that sacked him earlier this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Very few people expected Brann to go to the Lerkendal on Tuesday night and obtain a victory. But they played pretty well and picked up a huge 3 points. Credit to Kåre Ingebrigtsen for using the extra time to come up with a good gameplan. I do just wonder how much that game will have taken out of their legs though physically. There has to be some sort of comedown, especially now as a massive favourite in a match everyone expects then to win. In an interesting twist, Lars Arne Nilsen returns to the club who sacked him and he could suffer an official relegation with defeat. I would expect Brann to have enough but there’s no way I can trust them around the 1.35 mark or on a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Over 3 would’ve been a tempting bet if Aalesund had the likes of Castro available but they’ll probably now draw a blank and end up losing something like 2-0 or 3-0.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None