Monthly Archives: November 2020

France Ligue 2 – Grenoble v Nancy Preview (24/11/20)

Match Preview

Grenoble

  • Victory away at Pau (2-0) last time out was their 6th in 8 games
  • In a healthy 5th place and have 2 games in hand on most teams
  • 100% 4 out of 4 wins at home this season
  • Squad in fine condition with no major injuries or suspensions

Nancy

  • Haven’t played a competitive match since 7th November due to COVID issues
  • There were a lot of cases at the club so off the field things have been difficult
  • Defensive duo Saliou Ciss & Ernest Seka ruled out
  • Midfielder Akichi also not included in the squad
  • Lost 3 out of 5 away matches

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Grenoble had their own COVID issues earlier in the season but seem to have come out of it quite well. They are in excellent form and if they win their two games in hand would actually sit just one point off the top of the table. Their 2-0 victory away at an improving Pau was comfortable on Friday night and the Alpine club look one of the form teams at the moment. I do kind of fear for Nancy here because they have endured some issues with a number of positive cases as the club. It’s doubtful how fit exactly everyone is and there are some important players ruled out anyway. Nancy aren’t a bad side in a normal circumstance, but they aren’t anything special either. I expect Grenoble to get the job done and I’m happy to back them on the nose around the even money mark.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Grenoble -0.5 Asian Handicap @2.03

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Brann Preview (24/11/20)

Match Preview

Rosenborg

  • Midfielder Marcus Henriksen self isolating and won’t be available
  • Also doubts over whether #1 keeper Andre Hansen can play
  • Anders Konradesen & Pal Andre Helland injured and unlikely to feature
  • Defeat to Viking last time out (0-3) ended an 11 match unbeaten run
  • Strong at home this season (8-3-1) and only lost to Glimt at the Lerkendal

Brann

  • Winless in 9 games and now hovering only just above the relegation zone
  • Better away from home this season with a 4-3-5 record
  • Goalkeeper Ali Ahamada ruled out due to self isolation
  • CB Kolskogen & CM Daniel Pedersen likely injured

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Brann are suddenly under serious pressure after Start’s recent two victories. The Bergan outfit are just 1 point above the relegation playoff match now and in bad form - winless in 9 games. Kåre Ingebrigtsen goes back to his old stomping ground now in desperate need of something. Rosenborg themselves are fighting for a medal spot and a victory would move them back to second place. RBK ‘should’ win but the -1.25 handicap is not something that interests me. They couldn’t even cover it vs Start and Brann have a knack of keeping this fixture close and competitive in recent years. Motivation will be high on both sides and although the extra class and confidence of Rosenborg should shine through I don’t think Brann will disgrace themselves.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Guingamp v Ajaccio Preview (23/11/20)

Match Preview

Guingamp

  • Down in 14th place and failed to score in 4 of last 5 games
  • Home record improved with 2 wins in last 3 here
  • Right back Jeremy Mellot suspended but injury situation is good
  • Last 7 matches all ended under 2.5 with both teams not scoring

Ajaccio

  • Hovering above the relegation zone but have improved recently
  • Won last two away games by a 2-0 and 1-0 scoreline
  • Centre back pairing Joris Sainati & Cedric Avinel both suspended
  • 8/10 matches under 2.5 this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

My main concern when Mecha Bazdarevic took over at Guingamp was that their goals would dry up and he wouldn’t make the most of their offensive talents. This is exactly what has transpired and Guingamp have become this under type machine where too much negativity takes over. This squad should be scoring way too much but the tactics of the coach are too defensive. If Ajaccio weren’t missing two important defenders to suspension I would definitely look at backing under 2 goals here, or even consider the visitors +0.25. It will be hard for Ajaccio now though and maybe Guingamp can squeeze out a tight 1-0 or something. I’m not expecting a classic by any means and this could go either way.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Strømsgodset v Bodø/Glimt Preview (22/11/20)

Match Preview

Strømsgodset

  • Winless in 10 games and lost their last 3 consecutively
  • Goals have seemingly dried up, scoring just 4 goals in last 7
  • Squad in good condition with no new injuries or suspensions
  • Home record of (3-5-4) not too bad

Bodø/Glimt

  • Need just one point to be officially crowned champions
  • Won 21 out of 24 matches this season
  • Missing some key players for this game including midfielder Patrick Berg
  • Without centre backs Lode & Moe as well

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Glimt have been hit hard by some player absences today. I have to worry about them defensively due to Marius Lode & Brede Moe both out, in addition to holding man in the middle Patrick Berg. Hugo Vetlesen (susp) & Sondre Fet (inj) are also ruled out. They need just one point to be champions so backing them at 1.68 to win the game might not be the best idea. Godset are in poor form but it wouldn’t surprise me if they put up a decent fight here. Most Glimt games are wide open and high tempo so I could see a few goals being scored. The goal line is 3.75 though which is probably too high with plenty at stake for both teams. Something like a 2-2 draw or 3-1 3-2 away win  is what I expect.

Prediction: 2-3

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Sarpsborg v Viking Preview (22/11/20)

Match Preview

Sarpsborg

  • Lost 3 of their last 4 games and dropping off form
  • Now only 6 points clear of the relegation zone but still quite comfortable
  • Fairly good home record this season, winning 6 out of 12 matches
  • Offensive doubts with Mos & Mollins possibly injured
  • Key CB Jorgen Horn out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL

Viking

  • A 3-0 victory against Rosenborg last time out sees them on a comfortable 33 points
  • Mixed away record 4-3-5 so far this year
  • No new injuries or suspensions
  • Midfielder Joe Bell returns after missing the RBK match

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I’m surprised Sarpsborg are as short as 2.05 here. They were even trading slightly odds-on in the build up this week. Viking are the better team in my opinion and I’m guessing the so called extra motivation for the hosts is why they are so favoured. Sarpsborg could win and I wouldn’t be surprised but I do not think Viking should be underestimated. The previous meeting this season ended in an easy 3-0 victory for Viking and recent H2Hs have all contained goals. However, Sarpsborg have the 2nd most under games out of anyone and a lot of their matches tend to end both teams not scoring. I’m going to avoid betting but I see something like a 1-2 away win or a 2-2 draw.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Odd v Start Preview (22/11/20)

Match Preview

Odd

  • Defeat to VIF last time out (0-2) has stalled their progress in hunt for a medal
  • Still in with a chance though and everything to play for. This feels must win.
  • #1 keeper Sondre Rossbach ruled out due to a COVID quarantine
  • Experienced CB Steffen Hagen remains injured
  • Odd have an excellent 8-2-2 home record this season

Start

  • Important late victory at home to Sarpsborg (3-2) last time was crucial
  • Actually won 4 of their last 10 games but all of those at home
  • Terrible away record (0-3-8) and the only side yet to win on the road this season
  • No new injuries to worry about. Midfielder El Makrini back from suspension

Conclusion & Betting analysis

This is a bit of an obvious bet but I like the home side here. Start just don’t travel well and can’t be relied upon whilst on their travels. Odd have good attacking options now and should have enough about themselves to get the 3 points. Start can sometimes be hard to break down and will probably be defensive minded, so I think the better bet to take is Odd on the nose @1.65. Taking a handicap brings the risk of a push or something. Odd should be winning this match something like 2-0 or 3-0 though because they are much the better side. 

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Odd to WIN @ 1.65

Norway Eliteserien – Kristiansund v Mjøndalen Preview (22/11/20)

Match Preview

Kristiansund

  • No win in four games as a collection of draws have stalled them recently
  • Stuck in 6th position with a decent gap both above and below them
  • Only the 11th best home record this season with a 4-4-3 record
  • No new injuries. Striker Flamur Kastrati remains suspended

Mjøndalen

  • Huge victory last time out vs local rivals SIF has given them more hope
  • Second bottom of the table but are within striking distance of those above them now
  • Midfielder Martin Ovenstad suspended and attacker Fredrik Brustad rated doubtful
  • Lost 8 out 12 away games including their last 4 consecutively

Conclusion & Betting analysis

KBK haven’t won for a while but have endured a brutal fixture list in recent weeks. Their run of Rosenborg, VIF, Glimt and then Molde has thankfully come to an end and this is a much more manageable game. The question is whether it has taken some wind out of their sails. Today they face a MIF team who are fighting for their lives and will be giving it absolutely anything. They can be an absolute bitch to face with their start/stop tactics. The extra motivation of MIF might be a factor to consider but Kristiansund are much the better team overall so maybe their class will show. Nothing interests me here. My best guess is for a home win something like 2-0 or 2-1 but I’m not really sure. 

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Haugesund v Sandefjord Preview (22/11/20)

Match Preview

Haugesund

  • Won 3 of last 4 games and seem to have bounced back into form
  • Sitting comfortably in midtable on 31 points in 9th spot
  • Squad condition good with no new injuries or suspensions to worry about
  • Inconsistent home record 5-2-5, you never know which version of them will show up

Sandefjord

  • Now 6 points clear of the relegation zone after consecutive draws
  • Injury doubts to defenders Marc Valles and Brice Wembangomo
  • Won 5 and lost 7 away games, yet to draw on their travels
  • Second lowest scoring side in the league with just 25 goals netted

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I’m a little bit surprised that Haugesund are as short as 1.80 to win this match. I’m not saying they won’t win but I just don’t like the idea of trusting them at such a short price. They failed against Aalesund here a few weeks ago and although weather conditions were against them on that occasion I think FKH prefer being underdogs. Sandefjord could certainly dig their heels and I see something like a 1-1 or even 0-0 draw. Under 2.5 would’ve interested me if it was earlier in the season but weird things can happen at this time of year. I suspect a fairly tight contest though which could be decided by a set piece or something.

Prediction:  0-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Pau v Grenoble Preview (21/11/20)

Match Preview

Pau

  • Found some form after winning 2 of their last 3 games, scoring 7 goals in the process
  • Only 1 home defeat out of 4 so far
  • Centre back Antoine Batisse is suspended
  • Most of the rest of the squad largely injury free

Grenoble

  • Won 5 out of the 8 games they’ve played this season
  • Away form not so good with 3out of 4 defeats
  • No suspensions and the injury list is small

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I have a feeling that Pau might be underestimated a bit here. They have actually played some decent football in recent weeks and the 4-1 victory vs Niort was especially impressive. This is a team suddenly creating chances and actually taking them fairly regularly. You almost feel there is more in the tank and on the counter attack pacey players like Sabaly and Assifuah are worth watching. Grenoble will probably be a tougher test than most of what they’ve faced recently though. The visitors have two games in hand and if they won them would actually sit 2nd in the table. I suspect Pau DNB and over 2 goals is overpriced but let’s just watch and see what happens.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Amiens v Clermont Preview (21/11/20)

Match Preview

Amiens

  • Following an initial ‘new manager bounce’ Amiens have now lost their last two matches
  • One of the worst attacks in the division scoring just 6 goals
  • Defensively solid but left back Sanasi Sy is suspended and a couple of centre backs, Wague and Opoku are rated doubtful
  • Key midfielder Alexis Blin is another suspension

Clermont

  • Second best away record and have won 3 out of 5 on the road this season
  • With just 6 goals conceded, Clermont have the best defensive record out of anyone
  • Attacker David Gomis returns form injury and they are at full strength 
  • No suspensions and no injuries to worry about

Conclusion & betting analysis

It’s a sign of the times that Clermont are actually an away favourite facing one of the relegated teams from Ligue 1. But this is probably a fair price. They are definitely the better team and in better form. A lot of factors are with them here and I could see this ending up a 0-1 or 0-2 away victory. Amiens are a tricky side to predict though and capable of anything. They are still under relatively new management so could be a bit of a wildcard. There’s still some good quality within the squad so I think overall this match is best left avoided, even if I do think Clermont emerge victorious.

Prediction: 0-1

Recommended bet: None