Monthly Archives: December 2020

Betting Review 2020

The last preview I wrote before COVID-19 stopped football in its tracks was a French Ligue 2 fixture between Lens and Orleans. I remember I had been in two minds as to whether to back Lens or over 2.5 (or both). Typically, I only took over 2.5 and Lens won 1-0, which although we didn’t know it at the time was a very significant result which earned Lens promotion - anything less and they would have stayed in Ligue 2! That was the first French match to be played behind closed doors and I have to admit I didn’t initially enjoy watching football without fans. In fact, I decided to ‘stay away’ for the next few weeks until fans would be allowed back in. Little did we all know that it would be the LAST MATCH of the entire French season!

Overall results from ALL picks recommended on meatmansoccer.com in 2020

Picks: 166
Units staked: 166
Profit: +15.21 units
Yield: 9.16%

French Ligue 2 results in 2020

Picks: 63
Units staked: 63
Profit: +1.51 units
Yield: 2.39%

2020 started auspiciously with my first recommended pick Le Mans DNB at home to Auxerre on January 10th, which they lost 0-1 to a Dejan Sorgic goal. In the January - March period I actually had an overall betting loss of -1.74 units in French Ligue 2. I couldn’t seem to get any rhythm going, although I had slightly picked up form as COVID enclosed on proceedings. Ultimately, I was to end the 2019/20 season with a loss of -2.74 units, the majority of which was the result of a shocking September 2019 in which I lost nearly -5 units. We will never know if I would have ended the season in profit or loss but it’s fair to say it was never going to be the greatest campaign.

So far in the 2020/21 season I am in a profit of +3.25 units on advised selections in French Ligue 2. I have said many times before that it’s one of the harder leagues in the world to make profit on and I am probably a madman for being involved in this division! But it has always been my baby and nothing will change there. This season I have cut down on over/under betting in Ligue 2 - not deliberately but slightly more discipline appears to have paid dividends as my handicap betting has so far been +5.32 units, something I am keen to continue. French Ligue 2 is a marathon, not a sprint and a lot of patience is required. I would honestly be happy with anything between the +5 to +10 unit range at the end of the season. The one thing about COVID and fan restrictions is that it hasn’t really affected anything statistically in Ligue 2. Home wins are still around the 40% mark and over 2.5 games are still around 40%. Goals per game have slightly increased but not significantly. Playing behind closed doors might be a more dull watch but I feel like I’ve got a good grasp on things.

Eliteserien 2020 results

Picks: 96
Units staked: 96
Profit: +13.44 units
Yield: 14%

The big success for me in 2020 was Norwegian Eliteserien betting. The league started back in June and I was RARING to go with a bang. July 2020 was one of my best ever betting months on advised selections, managing to amass +10.60 units from 25 picks. I bagged a huge 17 winners with just 4 full losers on the card. It was the ‘holy grail’ of a month and perfectly set me up for the months ahead. I probably should have got more than +1 unit out of August in Norway before stuttering a bit in the Autumn. I have always preferred matches to be played regularly in leagues so I can get a nice feel and rhythm - probably why I was so successful in the summer and in December this year as fixtures pile up. I found that international breaks, along with the transfer window really halt momentum and make betting a lot harder. I was also ill in September and to be honest I’ve said it before that you need to be sharp both physically and mentally in the betting industry otherwise there is no point being involved - you need to take a break if you aren’t feeling on top form.

A large chunk of the +13.44 units I gained in the Eliteserien this year were a result of over/under betting. In total, my profit for overs in particular was +10.16 units from 48 selections and I was delighted to take advantage of what was a much higher scoring league in 2020. Over 2.5 goals was up near the 63% mark which is about 10% higher than in recent seasons. Starting the league in the summer probably helped the goal production but it was encouraging to see lots of high scoring games as we headed towards winter as well. I really hope the Eliteserien stays high scoring in 2021. Having Mjøndalen still in the division won’t help matters in that regard but they do have their uses for under betting at least. I was slightly disappointed that my Handicap bets in Norway only resulted in a +1.77 profit from 36 picks this season - and prior to December I was running at a loss in this department. I need to look at how I can improve to either become more selective or increase returns. Certain teams such as Brann , Rosenborg and Odd cost me at times with handicaps. I know I can’t rely on such amazing returns on over/under goals in 2021 so it’s vital I raise my form with handicaps a bit. I am really looking forward to the Eliteserien 2021 though and feel like I properly nailed the league this year. Having 200 fans in the stadiums was great and they actually generated a nice atmosphere. Norway didn’t really lose any significant home advantage. Away wins were increased was actually draws which dropped and of course the big increase in goals, as aforementioned.

MLS 2020

I actually did some previews on the first two normal rounds of MLS before the league was stopped and in 7 picks gained a profit of +0.16 units. I personally followed the league upon its resumption but I didn’t have the time to continue picks and previews for this league. I feel like MLS is a hotbed of betting potential though and despite COVID restrictions still managed to maintain roughly a 50% home win rate, which remains one of the highest in the world. The goal potential is high in this league considering everyone over there craves entertainment. Unfortunately, there are so many teams in MLS now it’s difficult to stay on top of things. I hope to be able to produce more previews and picks in MLS for 2021 but I can’t promise anything. It might be a case of one weekly post highlighting the best selections.

2021 & the Future

The future for meatmansoccer.com is to hopefully go from strength to strength. I will continue to provide match previews and picks for all games in Ligue 2 and Eliteserien. It would be nice to expand back to French Ligue 1 again and offer something MLS related, so watch this space. There also might be the potential for individual in-depth team reports including analysis on players at specific clubs in France and Norway. I know many people have been intrigued as to how I rate certain players and teams. This is something which might become a subscription based system, as indeed there is always the possibility of my own betting picks becoming a subscription service. I have said many times though I would not move back to a sub service unless I can guarantee a high quality of product and commitment though, and always at competitive prices. It is my aim and ambition for Meatmansoccer.com to always maintain some sort of free service even if part of the site is subscription based.

Away from my site I still make the Nordic Football Podcast with my good friend Jonathan Fadugba. 2021 will be our 5th season doing the podcast together. The lockdown allowed me to do some other things such as streaming Football Manager on Twitch. This is something I have retained and I have really enjoyed mixing with the FM community on twitch. Links to all my socials and key channels can be found below.

I wish everyone the very best for 2021. Stay safe, hang in there and hopefully we can all have a profitable and prosperous year!

Key links

Meatmansoccer- twitter

Nordic Football Podcast twitter

Nordic Football Podcast - Episodes

Meatmansoccer - twitch page

Eliteserien Betting Record

Ligue 2 Betting Record

France Ligue 2 – Betting Record Feb/March 2020

Feb/March key stats:-
Staked: 14
Loss: -0.85
Yield: -6.07%

Roughly down by about a unit in this period. The key was probably a couple of 2-0 over picks which with another goal in them would have been the difference between a profitable month and a losing month. Unfortunately, there was no time to recover the overall loss of the season which was close to -3 units due to the Coronavirus update.

Date Match Bet Result
9/3/20 Lens v Orleans Over 2.5 goals LOSE -1
6/3/20 Grenoble v Valenciennes Over 2 goals @1.89 WIN +0.89
6/3/20 Clermont v Sochaux Clermont -0.5 @1.92 WIN +0.92
28/2/20 Orleans v Troyes Over 2.5 goals @2.39 LOSE -1
28/2/20 Auxerre v Niort Over 2 goals @1.84 WIN +0.84
14/2/20 Le Mans v Rodez Over 2.25 goals @ 2.02 LOSE -1
14/2/20 Auxerre v Chambly Auxerre -0.5 @1.87 LOSE -1
7/2/20 Niort v Orleans Over 2.25 goals @1.87 HALF LOSS -0.5
7/2/20 Clermont v Valenciennes Clermont -0.5 @1.85 WIN +0.85
4/2/20 Nancy v Sochaux Nancy -0.25 @1.94 HALF LOSS -0.5
4/2/20 Lorient v Le Mans Over 2.5 goals @1.84 WIN +0.84
4/2/20 Lens v Troyes Lens -0.5 @1.81 WIN +0.81
4/2/20 Chateauroux v Chambly Under 2 goals @ 1.97 LOSE -1
3/2/20 Grenoble v Le Havre Grenoble DNB @ 2.07 PUSH 0

France Ligue 2 – Betting Record December 2020

December key stats:-
Staked: 14pts
Profit: +3.46
Yield: 24.71%

Very solid month. Again, it could have maybe been better because every losing bet ended a draw or some form - apart from the late Valenciennes winner which cost me the under pick. I feel like form really picked up just before Christmas, so hopefully can have a really solid January!

 

Date Match Bet Result
19/12/20 Toulouse v Le Havre Toulouse -0.25 @ 1.81 WIN +0.81
18/12/20 Troyes v Niort Troyes -0.75 @1.90 HALF WIN +0.45
18/12/20 Auxerre v Pau Auxerre -0.75 @1.90 HALF WIN +0.45
18/12/20 Ajaccio v Nancy Ajaccio -0.25 @2.03 WIN +1.03
12/12/20 Paris FC v Rodez Paris FC -0.5 @1.95 LOSE -1
12/12/20 Grenoble v Dunkerque Grenoble -0.5 @1.86 WIN +0.86
12/12/20 Nancy v Axuerre Auxerre DNB @ 1.75 PUSH 0
12/12/20 Chateauroux v Toulouse Toulouse -0.25 @1.86 WIN +0.86
7/12/20 Ajaccio v Le Havre Under 2 goals @1.93 PUSH 0
5/12/20 Toulouse v Guingamp Toulouse -0.25 @2.14 HALF LOSS -0.5
5/12/20 Sochaux v Nancy Sochaux -0.25 @2.11 HALF LOSS -0.5
5/12/20 Clermont v Pau Clermont -0.75 @2.01 WIN +1.01
5/12/20 Chambly v Valenciennes Under 2.25 goals @1.94 LOSE -1
5/12/20 Auxerre v Niort Auxerre -0.5 @1.99 WIN +0.99

France Ligue 2 – Betting Record November 2020

November key stats:-
Staked: 12pts
Loss: -1.29
Yield: -10.75%

Every singly loser apart from Niort against Dunkerque was the result of a draw. Just need to convert some of those into victories. Good price odd of the winners reduced damage this month thankfully.

Date Match Bet Result
28/11/20 Clermont v Nancy Clermont -0.75 @2.06 WIN +1.06
28/11/20 Caen v Chateauroux Caen -0.5 @1.95 LOSE -1
28/11/20 Auxerre v Valenciennes Auxerre -0.75 @2.06 LOSE -1
24/11/20 Grenoble v Nancy Grenoble -0.5 @2.03 WIN +1.03
21/11/20 Valenciennes v Rodez Valenciennes -0.25 @ 1.91 HALF LOSS -0.5
21/11/20 Niort v Dunkerque Niort -0.25 @1.98 LOSE -1
21/11/20 Chambly v Toulouse Toulouse -0.5 @2.06 LOSE -1
7/11/20 Auxerre v Amiens Auxerre -0.25 @2.16 WIN +1.16
7/11/20 Caen v Nancy Caen -0.25 @1.93 WIN +0.93
7/11/20 Dunkerque v Paris FC Paris FC -0.25 @2.03 WIN +1.03
7/11/20 Toulouse v Valenciennes Toulouse -0.5 @1.97 LOSE -1
7/11/20 Troyes v Chambly Troyes -1 @2.01 LOSE -1

Eliteserien – Betting Record December 2020

December key stats:-
Staked: 16pts
Profit: +4.84
Yield: 30%

Really good month to end the season. Things started badly in December but a 7 game winning streak was the key to success here. Finally had some luck with a couple of late goals in certain matches, but losses such as the Glimt - Viking over and Mjøndalen - Aalesund pick were unlucky. Overall it was a profitable campaign and I'd have signed up for this at the start of the month for sure

Date Match Bet Result
22/12/20 Strømsgodset v Stabaek Over 3.25 goals @ 1.94 WIN +0.94
22/12/20 Mjøndalen v Aalesund Over 3.25 goals @1.94 HALF LOSS -0.5
22/12/20 Kristiansund v Haugesund Over 3.25 goals @1.88 WIN +0.88
19/12/20 Bodø/Glimt v Viking Over 3.75 goals @1.88 LOSE -1
13/12/20 Rosenborg v Molde Rosenborg DNB @1.78 WIN +0.78
10/12/20 Rosenborg v Mjøndalen Under 3 goals @1.90 WIN +0.90
10/12/20 Viking v Valerenga Over 3 goals @1.86 WIN +0.86
9/12/20 Kristiansund v Odd Kristiansund -0.5 @2.06 WIN +1.06
9/12/20 Haugesund v Bodø/Glimt Bodø/Glimt -0.75 @1.90 WIN +0.90
6/12/20 Bodø/Glimt v Stabaek Over 3.5 goals 1.87 WIN +0.87
6/12/20 Strømsgodset v Haugesund Over 2.75 goals @ 2.03 WIN +1.03
2/12/20 Start v Bodø/Glimt Over 3.5 goals @2.05 LOSE -1
2/12/20 Start v Bodø/Glimt Bodø/Glimt -0.75 @ 2.01 LOSE -1
2/12/20 Viking v Brann Over 3.25 goals @1.90 LOSE -1
2/12/20 Viking v Brann Viking -0.25 @2.12 WIN +1.12
2/12/20 Sarpsborg v Kristiansund Kristiansund DNB @ 2.01 PUSH 0

Eliteserien – Betting Record November 2020

November key stats:-
Staked: 11pts
Loss: -0.77
Yield: -7%

Another losing month with some frustrating results. Genuinely deserved more with a couple of frustrating pushes and a couple of losers which were harsh. Still, it wasn't a disastrous month and heading into the last few rounds of the season I am hoping for a strong December to finish.

 

Date Match Bet Result
29/11/20 Vålerenga v Sarpsborg Vålerenga -1 @ 2.03 LOSE -1
29/11/20 Molde v Haugesund Over 3 goals @1.89 WIN +0.89
29/11/20 Kristiansund v Strømsgodset Over 3 goals @1.89 PUSH 0
29/11/20 Bodø/Glimt v Rosenborg Over 3.25 goals @2.0 WIN +1.0
22/11/20 Odd v Start Start win @1.65 LOSE -1
8/11/20 Viking v Rosenborg Over 3 goals 2.0 PUSH 0
8/11/20 Molde v Kristiansund Over 3.25 goals @ 1.88 WIN +0.88
8/11/20 Bodø/Glimt v Aalesund Over 3.75 goals @1.96 WIN +0.96
1/11/20 Strømsgodset v Vålerenga Over 3 goals @1.87 LOSE -1
1/11/20 Stabaek v Viking Over 3 goals @1.89 LOSE -1
1/11/20 Rosenborg v Start Rosenborg -1.25 @1.85 HALF LOSS -0.5

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Chambly Preview (22/12/20)

Match Preview

Nancy

  • Winless in last 8 games and lost 6 of those fixtures
  • Brutal run of games and this is already their 6th game of the month
  • Key playmaker Amine Bassi is injured along with Rayanne Philippe
  • 2-2-3 home record is the second worst in the league

Chambly

  • Impressive 3-0 victory vs Guingamp on Friday has lifted them out of the relegation zone
  • Still winless on the road but have managed to draw 5 out of 7 games
  • Defensive midfielder Maxence Derrien is suspended
  • Striker issues with both Mehdy Guezoui & Doucoure injured

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The way things have been going for Nancy I am actually tempted by Chambly +0.25. However, I don’t think Nancy are actually that bad of a side. It’s just a number of things like injuries, their enforced COVID break and the hectic fixture schedule have all been against them. Chambly have been going well recently but they are still a limited team and it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggled playing a midweek match. Maybe a draw is the most likely outcome here although if anyone is to win I’d say Chambly because Nancy don’t look to have much left in their tank right now. 

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Paris FC v Guingamp Preview (22/12/20)

Match Preview

Paris FC

  • Defeat to Clermont on Saturday (2-3) means they are now winless in 6 games
  • Keep conceding the first goal in matches which is hindering them
  • Fullback Ali Abdi is suspended
  • Average 4-4-2 home record but haven’t won any of last 3 here

Guingamp

  • Mightily underachieving down in 15th position
  • Incredibly now winless in 9 games after losing 0-3 to Chambly on Friday
  • Just 1 away win in 8 games this season
  • Attacker Ronny Rodelin is injured
  • Defensive duo Sampaio & Mellot also still ruled out

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Paris FC are now odds-on to win with some bookmakers after a big move on them today. Both teams have issues though. Paris FC have had a tough fixture list recently but haven;t won in 6 games and clearly their rhythm and confidence is down. Guingamp though also have massive concerns and they were shocking on Friday night losing to Chambly 0-3. Both sides have a bad habit of conceding the first goal recently and I don’t think they can be relied on. At some stage the quality is there within both squads to go on good runs again this season but right now it’s a difficult place for both. I could see Paris FC sneaking the 3 points but maybe a draw is the most likely outcome with both struggling for wins of late.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 -Le Havre v Rodez Preview (22/12/20)

Match Preview

Le Havre

  • Winless in 7 games after losing late away against Toulouse 4-3 on Saturday
  • Fairly poor 2-3-2 home record
  • 6 out of 7 home games ended under 2.5 goals
  • Key striker Jamal Thiare ruled out injured
  • Midfielder Nolan Mbemba also a casualty

Rodez

  • Failure to beat Chateauroux on Friday (1-1) means they’ve now gone 11 games without a victory
  • Worst away record in the league but have drawn 4 out of 7 on the road
  • Haven’t kept a clean sheet since the opening day of the season
  • Left wing back Amiran Sanaia is suspended

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Both teams are in poor form and haven’t won for a while. I definitely rate Le Havre as the better unit and they have given good games to the likes of Auxerre, Clermont & Toulouse recently. However, without key striker Thiare and with more expectations on their shoulder I’m not sure I could trust them. Rodez are quit frankly a poor outfit and I do wonder how long coach Laurent Peyrelade will last. Le Havre can be backed around the 2.20 mark tonight and that might look like a big price come the end of this match. But I just can’t trust them even though I think they’ll get the 3 points.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Grenoble v Troyes Preview (22/12/20)

Match Preview

Grenoble

  • On a nine match unbeaten run but drawn 4 of last 6 games
  • Failed to beat ten men for the entire 2nd half  twice in recent games
  • Fantastic 6-1-0 home record, only conceding four goals here
  • Key playmaker Yoic Ravet still injured and they have missed his creativity

Troyes

  • Unbeaten in 12 consecutive games and they are top of the table
  • Won 4 of last 5 games on the road
  • Midfielder Florian Tardieu is suspended

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Here we have a battle between the top two sides in the division and it should be an interesting battle. Both haven’t lost a game of football for quite some time so the obvious outcome is a draw. Grenoble are very strong at home but have struggled to break sides down on the road in recent weeks. Perhaps they will have more success facing a Troyes side who will likely play more expansive and attacking. I am surprised Troyes are slight favourites on a DNB handicap and it feels like Grenoble might be some potential value. How can you bet against an ESTAC team that hasn’t lost in a dozen games though? I think let’s just enjoy the match between two good teams and not worry about trying to bet on such a fixture.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None