Monthly Archives: January 2021

France Ligue 2 – Round 25 (13-15 Feb)

Round 25
Next >>
Time (GMT)
Saturday 13th February
14:00
Auxerre
vs
Guingamp Preview
18:00
Caen
vs
Niort Preview
18:00
Chateauroux
vs
Le Havre Preview
18:00
Clermont
vs
Chambly Preview
18:00
Dunkerque
vs
Nancy Preview
18:00
Grenoble
vs
Amiens Preview
18:00
Pau
vs
Paris FC Preview
18:00
Troyes
vs
Rodez Preview
Monday 15th February
18:00
Sochaux
vs
Valenciennes Preview
19:45
Toulouse
vs
Ajaccio Preview

France Ligue 2 – Rodez v Sochaux Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Rodez

  • Unbeaten in last 7 games and won last 2 consecutive fixtures
  • Victory away at Caen last week (2-1) has seen them move out of the relegation places
  • No new injuries or suspensions
  • Mixed 3-3-4 home record

Sochaux

  • Lost back to back games vs high flying Troyes & Toulouse
  • 2-6-2 away record - a lot of draws and hard to beat
  • Two key absences - CB Florentin Pogba & DMID Joseph Lopy
  • Only conceded 6 goals on the road

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Rodez appear to have found some form again after a very sticky period. I expect Sochaux to come here with a fairly defensive game plan, they tend to be quite stout on the road facing pretty much anyone. A couple of key absences could affect them though because Pogba and Lopy have been playing well this season. I would lean towards Rodez if I had to pick anyone but they have a knack of conceding goals so probably something like a 1-1 draw is my overall prediction. Tough one to call here.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Niort v Le Havre Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Niort

  • Conceding a late equaliser against Chambly on Wednesday means they are now winless in last 7 games
  • Average home record (4-3-3). Lost last 2 games at this venue
  • Midfielder Yacine Bourhane is suspended
  • Center back Issouf Paro injured

Le Havre

  • Just 1 win in last 12 for HAC as their form continues to struggle
  • Better on the road with a 4-2-5 record
  • Squad condition good with no major injuries or suspensions

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Neither team is in great form so I expect this will be a close, tense sort of match which will probably end in a draw. If either team gets ahead I expect them to get a little nervous and perhaps struggle to close out the game and concede an equaliser. I suspect both sides would be ok with a draw at this point in time. Le Havre had a full week of rest so might have a physical edge and I would lean to them if I had to pick a side. But overall this feels very drawish.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Guingamp v Pau Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Guingamp

  • Rescued a late point away at Le Havre last week (1-1) but only won 1 of last 14 games
  • 2-5-3 home record has been poor this season
  • No new injuries or suspensions
  • Attacker Yeni N’Gbakoto not included in the squad

Pau

  • 6 consecutive defeats has them in trouble towards the bottom of the table
  • Terrible 1-2-8 away record which is the worst in the league
  • Squad condition good with no major injuries or suspensions

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Pau are not a good footballing team and have looked bad since the resumption of the league after Christmas. They showed some slight signs of improvement vs Troyes last week, perhaps unlucky to lose but for the most part performances have been fairly chronic.I don’t trust Guingamp but on paper and quality they should have enough to get the 3 points. They tend to make some mistakes somewhere which will cost them but offensively they have enough firepower to get the job done. I’m not going to bet but I’m thinking home win something like 2-0 or 2-1.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Chambly v Caen Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Chambly

  • Late draw against Niort on Wednesday night has them in 18th place, 6 points clear of automatic relegation
  • 3-2-6 home record is the 3rd worst in the league
  • 3 players now affected by COVID
  • Defensive trio Jaques, Dequaire & Gonzalez all ruled out

Caen

  • Only 1 win in last 10 games and are now 8 points off the playoffs
  • Average 3-2-5 sort of away record
  • Starting keeper Remy Riou is injured
  • Key centre back Anthony Weber also ruled out

Conclusion & Betting analysis

This is the sort of fixture Caen usually does quite well in. They are certainly due another victory and are sometimes at their best when they need a result. I do worry for them without a couple of key defensive pieces - goalkeeper Remy Riou & centre back Anthony Weber. This could affect them negatively and in terms of confidence Caen don’t seem in a great way either. Chambly played just 3 days ago and will have to recharge quickly. They have some absences of their own at the back which could give them issues. I’m not sure about this match, it could go either way and possibly a draw is most likely.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Amiens v Chateauroux Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Amiens

  • Loss to Paris FC (2-4) last week was their first in 9 games
  • 3-5-2 home record have drawn too many at this venue
  • 9 out of 10 home games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • New signing in defence Racine Coly could be in line to make debut

Chateauroux

  • Winless in last 10 games and bottom of the table
  • New coach Benoit Cauet picked up his first point after thrilling 3-3 draws vs VA last week
  • 1-3-6 away record is the second worst in the league
  • Defenders Mbone & Cordoval still ruled out
  • Attacker Giles Sunu not included in the squad

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I am not sure I could trust Amiens at an odds-on price here. They simply don’t win enough matches of football for my liking, especially here at home where draws rack up. Amiens have a formidable defence usually and it will be difficult for Chateauroux to score here but the visitors have looked better under new coach Benoit Cauet and I sense they are close to a first victory under him. It might not come tonight but I wouldn't rule it out. Most matches tend to be an under at this venue so I think something like a 1-1 draw is going to be my prediction. Chateauroux are fighting for their lives right now and the expectation on Amiens as an odds-on favourite could go against the home team

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Ajaccio v Grenoble Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Ajaccio

  • Surprise defeat 1-3 away to Dunkerque was just their 2nd loss in last 12 games
  • Unbeaten in last 5 home games, conceding just 2 goals
  • Key goalkeeper Benjamin Leroy suspended for 3 games
  • Midfielder Vincent Marchetti injured 
  • 8 out of 10 home matches ended under 2.5

Grenoble

  • Victory at home to Chambly last week (2-0) was just their 2nd in 7 games
  • Bang average away record (3-3-5) this season and haven’t been great on the road
  • 9 out of 11 away games ended under 2.5 goals
  • Midfielder Charles Pickel is suspended

Conclusion & Betting analysis

This will probably be an under 2.5 match but I’m not sure it's going to be 0-0 territory. Ajaccio put up a sticker of a performance last week in Dunkerque and if they defend like that again then there will be trouble. The most significant absence for this match is their #1 goalkeeper Benjamin Leroy who has been really solid during the last 2 seasons. There’s a chance Grenoble could take advantage of that and if either team is to win then I would personally favour them. Something like a 1-1 draw is what I suspect or a 1-0 victory either way. I’m not going to bet on this game. Under 2 goals slightly tempted me and I’d be surprised if there were 3 or more goals, but at the same time I’m just not confident enough to back it.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Paris FC Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Nancy

  • Only 1 win in last 13 games after another draw last week vs Niort (2-2)
  • Only kept 2 clean sheets all season
  • 9 out of 10 home games ended with over 2.5 goals
  • No new injuries or suspensions
  • Key playmaker Amine Bassi still ruled out

Paris FC

  • Midweek defeat away to Valenciennes (0-2) was their fourth consecutive road loss
  • Inconsistent side recently and have been very up and down
  • Squad condition better with attacker Warren Caddy back after injury
  • Haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 8 games
  • 6 out of 10 away matches ended over 2.5 goals this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I’m not sure who is going to win this match but the obvious bet appears to be the over. Nancy home games have this knack of ending really high scoring this year. I’m not sure what it is but they have been defensively vulnerable which doesn’t help their cause. The last four Nancy home games have remarkably ended 2-2, 3-3, 2-2 and 2-2. I actually think Paris FC might claim victory here. They looked good a couple of weeks ago vs Amiens (4-2) and although not scoring in midweek managed to create an abundance of chances which were somehow not converted. This is going to be an end to end type affair for Ligue 2 standards and I’m surprised over 2.25 can be backed around the 1.90 mark. I think at worst we are looking at a 2 goal half loss but I see something like a 1-2 or 1-3 road victory.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet: Over 2.25 goals @1.94

France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v Dunkerque Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Valenciennes

  • Victory on Tuesday night at home to Paris FC moved them up to 7th in the table
  • Inconsistent side but have only lost 1 of their last 11 on the field
  • 4-3-3 home record and the win vs Paris FC was their first at home for a while
  • Midfield duo Julien Masson & Sassi D’Almeida still injured

Dunkerque

  • Surprise win 3-1 at home to Ajaccio last week ended a poor run of form
  • Lost 5 of last 7 games
  • 3-0-7 away record is the 3rd worst in the league
  • Defensive trio Ba, Cisse & Thiam are still ruled out injured

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I have been an advocate of betting against Dunkerque for a while recently and I will continue to do so again. They cost me by somehow drawing with Troyes and I really didn’t understand what happened during the Ajaccio match last week which they surprisingly won. I just think ACA played a stinker of a game to be honest and a goalkeeper red card didn’t help matters. Ultimately, I just don’t rate Dunkerque at all though and Valenciennes are fundamentally the better side who should have too much today. They look a more than acceptable price on a -0.25 Asian Handicap around the 1.85 mark and are often underrated by the bookmakers. I would be very surprised if Dunkerque managed to claim a victory and expect them to go back to losing ways here.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Valenciennes -0.25 @1.85

France Ligue 2 – Troyes v Auxerre Preview (30/1/21)

Match Preview

Troyes

  • Top of the table and only lost 1 of last 17 games
  • Exceptional 8-2-0 home record and yet to be defeated at Le Stade de l’Aube
  • Bench warmer centre back Gabriel Mutombo is injured
  • No other significant absentees apart from longer term casualties

Auxerre

  • Defeat away to Clermont last week (0-1) was their first loss in 14 games
  • In 5th place but now 6 points off automatic promotion spots and 8 points behind Troyes
  • No major injuries or suspensions
  • Mediocre 3-4-4 away record this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

It’s interesting to note that one of the few Troyes defeats this season did come against Auxerre (1-2). We have a battle between two possession hungry teams and the key will be who makes the most of their chances on the counter attack. I am concerned that Auxerre have generally come up short in these big clashes with that aforementioned victory vs ESTAC a rare exception vs other sides in the top five. It will be a special occasion for their manager Jean-Marc Furlan who spent many years in Troyes and did well at the club. Troyes haven’t fully convinced me of late and they laboured past the likes of Chateauroux, Pau and Sochaux of late so I could see Auxerre picking something up, maybe a draw. The visitors have enough quality to cause problems and are in a chasing position where they have less pressure and not as much to lose. I think something like a 1-1 draw is possible and the odds look about right. Over 2.5 goals is priced around 1.90 in some places which looks a tad short because these bigger matches can sometimes be fairly tight affairs in which neither team really wants to lose.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None