Monthly Archives: March 2021

France Ligue 2 – Round 33 (17 April)

Round 33
Next >>
Time (GMT)
Saturday 17th April
14:00
Clermont
vs
Le Havre Preview
19:00
Troyes
vs
Caen Preview
19:00
Ajaccio
vs
Niort Preview
19:00
Auxerre
vs
Nancy Preview
19:00
Chambly
vs
Amiens Preview
19:00
Dunkerque
vs
Grenoble Preview
19:00
Rodez
vs
Paris FC Preview
19:00
Sochaux
vs
Pau Preview
19:00
Toulouse
vs
Chateauroux Preview
19:00
Valenciennes
vs
Guingamp Preview

France Ligue 2 – Round 32 (10-12 April)

Round 32
Next >>
Time (BST)
Saturday 10th April
14:00
Paris FC
vs
Troyes Preview
19:00
Chateauroux
vs
Dunkerque Preview
19:00
Grenoble
vs
Caen Preview
19:00
Le Havre
vs
Ajaccio Preview
19:00
Nancy
vs
Sochaux Preview
19:00
Niort
vs
Auxerre Preview
19:00
Pau
vs
Clermont Preview
19:00
Valenciennes
vs
Chambly Preview
Sunday 11th April
18:00
Amiens
vs
Rodez Preview
Monday 12th April
19:45
Guingamp
vs
Toulouse Preview
Wednesday 14th April
19:45
Clermont
vs
Amiens Preview

France Ligue 2 – Round 31 (3-5 April)

Round 31
Next >>
Time (BST)
Saturday 3rd April
14:00
Toulouse
vs
Nancy Preview
19:00
Ajaccio
vs
Valenciennes Preview
19:00
Caen
vs
Pau Preview
19:00
Clermont
vs
Niort Preview
19:00
Dunkerque
vs
Amiens Postponed
19:00
Grenoble
vs
Chateauroux Preview
19:00
Rodez
vs
Chambly Preview
19:00
Sochaux
vs
Paris FC Preview
19:00
Troyes
vs
Guingamp Preview
Monday 5th April
19:45
Auxerre
vs
Le Havre Preview
Wednesday 7th April
18:00
Clermont
vs
Amiens Postponed

France Ligue 2 – Betting Record March 2021

March key stats:-
Staked: 6pts
Loss: -2.595
Yield: -43%

Small sample size due to the way the fixtures fell and the most recent round which I was unable to preview fully. Unfortunately, this is a losing month though which contained 4 out of 6 losses. The last gasp Pau equaliser vs Grenoble was particularly crippling and a swing of 2 units entirely. There are still 8 rounds left so hopefully I can finish the campaign strongly! Overall profit for this season has now sadly dipped below +4 units

Date Match Bet Result
13/3/21 Grenoble v Pau Grenoble -0.5 @1/95 LOSE -1
13/3/21 Sochaux v Chateauroux Sochaux -0.75 @1.95 LOSE -1
2/3/21 Chambly v Troyes Troyes -1 @1.98 WIN +0.987
2/3/21 Paris FC v Dunkerque Paris FC -0.75 @1.85 HALF WIN +0.425
2/3/21 Pau v Chateauroux Over 2.25 goals @2.08 LOSE -1
2/3/21 Valenciennes v Toulouse Over 2.5 goals @1.85 LOSE -1

France Ligue 2 – Amiens v Troyes Preview (20/3/21)

Match Preview

Amiens

  • Last week's match against Clermont was postponed, so had an 18 day break
  • Not in great form and winless in 6 games
  • Only scored 1 goal in their last 6 games as well
  • Relatively poor 4-7-3 home record this season
  • Left back Racine Coly rated doubtful due to injury

Troyes

  • Shock 1-5 home defeat to Nancy last week was perhaps a freak, but also a wake up call
  • 6-4-4 away record is one of the best in the league
  • Still top of the table but only have a 3 point cushion to 3rd place now
  • Midfielder Rayan Raveloson still ruled out with COVID

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The big question is how Troyes respond after their shock 1-5 loss last week to Nancy. It was a bit of a freak match in which Troyes had some very high xG numbers but missed a bunch of chances. They missed a penalty, gave away two spot kicks and also got caught out on the break  lot. It is difficult to see Amiens causing them as many problems with their blunt attack but from a defensive point of view the hosts might be hard to penetrate. I do wonder if an 18 day break for Amiens is less than ideal and they might not be as sharp compared to normal. I expect Troyes to bounce back after last week but I cann’t be backing them around the 2.10 mark to win. Strange things and pressure can affect teams when they are challenging for promotion so I’ll leave this one alone. 

Prediction: 0-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Chambly v Ajaccio Preview (19/3/21)

Match Preview

Chambly

  • Lost 6 of last 7 games and in 19th place, 5 points from safety
  • Not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 games
  • Still recovering from a brutal bunch of COVID cases
  • Key centre back Thibault Jacques is ruled out injured
  • Main starting striker Mehdi Guezoui out because of COVID

Ajaccio

  • Lost 4 of last 5 games and seem to be out of form again
  • Fairly poor 3-4-7 away record this season
  • Scored just 1 goal in last 6 games
  • Squad in good condition with no major injuries or suspensions

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Neither side is in great form right now. Chambly have desperately struggled through a difficult period where they had to deal with a bunch of COVID cases to players and staff. They’ve also had a really brutal fixture list. We can perhaps excuse them losing to the likes of Toulouse, Clermont, Troyes & Auxerre recently. In all fairness, Ajaccio haven’t had an easy ride either, but losing at home to Guingamp at home last week has to surely set some alarm bells ringing. They look to be relatively safe in midtable whilst Chambly are still fighting bravely against relegation. There’s no way I could be backing Ajaccio as a 1.95 away favourite here, but equally there’s no way I could take Chambly either. This could end anything really so I will predict a 1-1 draw in what is a tricky game to call.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Caen v Le Havre Preview (15/3/20)

Match Preview

Caen

  • Just 2 wins in last 17 games means Caen are hovering in lower midtable
  • Mixed 5-6-3 home record is the 11th best in the league
  • 10 out of 14 home games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Full back Hugo Vandermersch is suspended
  • Three key defensive players return - Riou (GK), Weber (CB) & Rivierez (CB)

Le Havre

  • Consecutive defeats followed what was a solid 7 game unbeaten run
  • Also situated in lower midtable  on 34 points
  • 22 out of 28 games ended under 2.5 goals which is the most out of anyone in the league
  • 5-3-6 away record has been fairly solid this season
  • Attacker Khalid Boutaib is suspended

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Big Normandie derby between two fierce rivals. Caen got the better of the first meeting, winning 2-1 in what was one of the rare Le Havre over 2.5 games this season. HAC fixtures tend to be very low scoring and they have quite a solid defence without being particularly adventurous going forward. My suspicion is that this will be a tight fixture, containing few goals and a draw is very much in play. Under 2 goals would interest me greatly, but weird things can happen in derby games even if there are no fans. Both teams know the stakes are high and won’t want to lose. I would probably lean towards Caen if I had to pick a side but neither have been in great form of late and are clearly untrustworthy. I’ll leave this game alone even if the under was tempting. 

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Troyes v Nancy Preview (13/3/20)

Match Preview

Troyes

  • Top of the table by 3 points and won 6 of their last 9 games
  • Superb 11-3-0 home record which is the best in the league
  • Joint second best defensive record, only conceding 22 goals
  • Midfielder Raveloson & defender El Hajjam ruled out of this match

Nancy

  • Won 4 of last 5 games and situated comfortably in midtable
  • Lost only 1 of last 12 games and found some great form in 2021
  • Midfielder Ogou Akichi is the only significant injury

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I suspect Troyes will win this match but Nancy are in good form and I don’t think this will be easy for them. ESTAC have the extra quality and class required to get the result they need but Nancy are playing without any pressure on their shoulders and are usually a threat to score goals. I could see this being an over 2.5 goals affair and that was the bet that tempted me most. However, we are in a difficult situation of the season where just something like a 1-0 victory would do for ESTAC and they have no need to push the boat out and keep attacking if they get ahead. I sense something like 2-1 or 3-1 but I’ll leave this alone, especially as the hosts are a little on the short side around the 1.75 mark. 

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Toulouse v Chambly Preview (13/3/20)

Match Preview

Toulouse

  • 3 losses in last 6 games has dumped Toulouse out of the automatic promotion places
  • Excellent 9-3-2 home record including 6 consecutive victories here
  • Highest scoring team in the league with 51 goals 
  • 15 out of 28 games ended over 2.5 goals
  • Squad in good condition. Captain and CB Ruben Gabrielsen returns from injury

Chambly

  • 5 losses in last 6 games leaves them 2nd bottom of the table
  • 1-7-5 away record has contained a number of draws
  • Lack of goals recently - just 2 scored in 6 games has hindered them
  • Still affected by a number of absences across the squad

Conclusion & Betting analysis

It wasn’t that long ago that Chambly were badly affected by COVID with a number of players ruled out. They’ve also had injuries and suspensions to deal with. Important players such as Soubervie & Derrien are missing tonight and I do still worry for them in terms of how the last few weeks have affected them. Toulouse should win here it’s just a question of by how many goals. The price on TFC is fairly short - around the 1.30 mark and any handicaps offered around the -1.5 or -1.75. The goal line is at 2.75 as well. Toulouse have been vulnerable away from home recently but their results at home have been strong. 5 of their 9 victories here have been by at least a 2 goal margin.  Am seriously tempted to back the TFC big handicap because I see something like a 2-0 or 3-0 victory but we are at the stage of the season where any victory will do. I’ll leave this one alone but it’s a shame the odds aren’t a bit better.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Sochaux v Chateauroux Preview (13/3/20)

Match Preview

Sochaux

  • 13 points from a possible recent 15 gives Sochaux a sniff of the playoffs
  • 5-5-4 home record has been fairly mediocre this season
  • Last 8 home games all ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Attackers Bryan Lasme & Steve Ambri both ruled out injured

Chateauroux

  • Bottom of the table and now 9 points from safety
  • Four consecutive defeats leaves them in a bad place, one win since mid November
  • Terrible 1-4-9 away record is the worst in the league
  • Three suspensions - Ibarra (ATT), Operi (LB) & Keny (ATT)

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The obvious bet here is to back Sochaux and in this instance I’m just going to go with that. Sometimes you can overthink things but I’m not going to make that mistake here. Chateauroux look to have mailed in their season now and I just don’t see them staying up. They are getting too desperate and defensively very insecure. Sochaux are usually pretty good at keeping things tight and regularly rack up clean sheets when their first choice defence can take to the field. The price on the home team isn’t great here around the 1.65 mark but taking Sochaux on a -0.75 handicap is a more juicer price. They should at least win by one goal and if Chateauroux keep defending badly there’s every chance of a more comfortable success.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Sochaux -0.75 Asian Handicap @1.95