France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v Toulouse Preview (2/3/21)

Match Preview

Valenciennes

  • No win in last 5 games has pretty much ended any playoff homes for Valenciennes
  • Just played nearly the entire match with 10 men vs Clermont on Saturday (0-4)
  • Centre back Emmanuel Ntim is suspended as a result
  • Fellow CB Maxime Spano also ruled out injured
  • Inconsistent 5-4-4 home record

Toulouse

  • Victory vs Amiens (3-0) on Saturday keeps them joint second in the table
  • Lost 2 of last 3 away games, although do have the best road record in the division
  • Key defender and captain Ruben Gabrielsen still injured
  • Highest scoring team in the division with 51 goals

Conclusion & Betting analysis

The previous matchup ended in a wild 5-4 victory for Valenciennes and whilst I don’t expect anything quite so extreme here, I’d say there is a strong likelihood of more goals. Valenciennes got ripped apart on Saturday by Clermont and struggled with 10 men for most of the game. They are short-handed defensively and I have to worry about their physical recovery as well. I could see Valenciennes being a threat on the break here though against a Toulouse defence which usually gives you a chance. The visitors are again without Ruben Gabrielsen, a factor which wasn’t relevant vs a toothless Amiens but he might be missed here. I expect Toulouse to win but rather than back them at an odds-on price I would rather take over 2.5 goals. VAFC did beat Paris FC and held Troyes here recently and with the pressure of the promotion race to consider I am not ruling out something like a 2-2 draw or a situation where TFC make some mistakes. I am thinking more along the lines of 1-2 or 1-3 but either way over 2.5 around the 1.85 mark is my fancy.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @1.85