Monthly Archives: June 2021

Norway Eliteserien – Vålerenga v Sarpsborg Preview (1/7/21)

Match Preview

Vålerenga

  • Victory away to Stabaek 2-0 was their first win in four matches
  • Just their 2nd clean sheet of the season was a welcome boost
  • Won just 1 out of 5 home games so far
  • Key men Aron Dønnum & Vidar Kjartansson both still out, but no other new injuries

Sarpsborg

  • Picked up four points from Lars Bohinen’s first four games in charge
  • 6 out of 8 matches ended with under 2.5 goals this season
  • Attackers Ibrahima Kone & Rashad Muhammed suspended
  • Centre back Mickael Dyrestam doubtful due to injury

Conclusion & Betting analysis

If I had to lean towards a bet here it would be under 2.5 goals. I don’t think this will be a high scoring encounter. Firstly, Vålerenga don’t look like the free scoring side we thought they would be, especially considering Donnum & Kjartansson are both missing. Sarpsborg are quite hard to break down and the main strength of their squad is in defence. Striker Ibrahima Kone is suspended here and so is Rashad Muhammed which means they will lack a pacey option going forwards. Kristian Opseth probably gets his first start for the club if he’s fit enough. I would lean towards Vålerenga winning this game 1-0 or 2-0 but at a price of around 1.55 I am not interested. Equally, the prospect of backing Sarpsborg +1 on an Asian line doesn’t have great appeal either. I am happy to leave this match alone and let things play out. A draw wouldn’t surprise me at all but maybe Vålerenga have the mental strength and that extra bit of quality to grind out a victory.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Lillestrøm Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Brann

  • Lost 8 out of 10 games and rock bottom of the table
  • Manager Kare Ingebrigtsen under serious pressure to turn things around
  • 5,000 fans will be here at the stadium, but could that work against them?
  • Some injuries in defence to Forren, Grogaard & Tveita 
  • Midfield playmaker Robert Taylor could be back after his EURO stint with Finland

Lillestrøm

  • Won 3 of their last 4 games and found some form
  • 2-0 win against Rosenborg on Monday evening was a massive boost
  • Lost 2 out of 3 away games
  • Midfielders Pal Andre Helland & Kaan Kairinen both doubtful here

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Brann have lost a whopping 8 out of 10 games and are in a real mess. They are impossible to back right now but are clearly still fighting at least. They had a good win vs Godset, fought out a 0-0 draw in Sarpsborg and were unlucky to lose to Haugesund in the previous round 0-1. I am a bit worried that the 5,000 fans now allowed inside the stadium will go against them if things turn sour, but they could equally push on Brann towards a much needed victory. The possible return of Robert Taylor after his return from the Euros with Finland could be a boost as well.

Lillestrøm must be loving life after beating Rosenborg 2-0 on Monday evening. I do wonder if there will be some sort of come down for LSK though. It was an emotional victory for the newly promoted outfit and they put a lot of effort into that game. Their away form has been a bit ropey this season but they do nevertheless look a decent price on the +0.25 Asian Handicap line. I am very tempted to back them here but ultimately I will refrain from betting. Brann are in a desperate situation and sometimes that sort of desperation can lead towards a positive performance. They're going to be mega hungry but the logical result here is a draw or an away win.  

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Sandefjord v Bodø/Glimt Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Sandefjord

  • Lost 5 out of 7 matches and sit 3rd bottom of the table
  • All 7 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals in them
  • 3 out of 4 home fixtures ended with defeat
  • Several injury doubts along with COVID isolation cases

Bodø/Glimt

  • Joint top of the table but have played a game more than Molde
  • Winger Sondre Sorli ruled out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury
  • Ola Solbakken also out with a dislocated shoulder
  • Bodø/Glimt have only scored 5 away goals in 4 games this season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Bodø/Glimt have been dealt a huge injury blow by the news that Sondre Sorli is ruled out for the rest of the season due to an ACL injury. Ola Solbakken is already ruled out for a few weeks anyway so suddenly Glimt have issues in wide areas and some other players are going to have to step up. More of a concern is how flat the defending champions have been away from home. They just haven’t looked anywhere near their best on the road this season, creating fewer chances and actually relying on defence to pick up points. They are 1.55 favourites to win and that looks too short to me.

Sandefjord head into the match on the back of a 0-4 drubbing at the hands of Stromsgodset. All 7 of their games have ended over 2.5 goals this season so maybe over 3 would be a decent bet. But I suspect that Sandefjord will have been focusing on defence this week, not just because it’s Glimt they are facing but because they need to improve this area in general. Last season they pushed Glimt twice, only losing 1-2 on both occasions and I could see something similar again. The visitors are more likely to win this match by a tight margin or even get held to a shock draw or something. Nothing interests me from a betting perspective because it’s a definite ‘trap’ game for Glimt and overs in my opinion.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Haugesund Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Rosenborg

  • Lost three consecutive games to drop down to 6th in the table
  • Kept just one clean sheet all season
  • Midfielder Per Ciljan Skjelbred is rated doubtful due to injury
  • Marcus Henriksen & Stefano Vecchia both likely to remain out again
  • 7 out of 10 matches ended over 2.5, but the last two both ended under

Haugesund

  • Found some form and won 3 of their last 4 games
  • Away record not so good with 2 out of 3 defeats
  • Kept 4 out of 7 clean sheets this season
  • Striker Ibrahima Wadji looks set to be ruled out due to injury

Conclusion & Betting analysis

It looked like Rosenborg had some momentum this season but now it has all vanished by losing three consecutive matches.It’s not like they’ve faced anyong great during this run either. The likes of Godset, Lillestrom and Sarpsborg are all mediocre at best and you could argue that Haugesund could be an even trickier opponent. The visitors can be very inconsistent and are probably due a bad performance but there’s no doubt they have found some good form recently. It looks like key striker Ibrahima Wadji won’t start because of injury and this is a shame for FKH because he offers a great technical and physical threat.

 If Wadji was available and fully fit I would perhaps be tempted in backing Haugesund +0.75, but instead this looks like a difficult match to call. Rosenborg are probably ‘due’ a rebound result, but could you trust them? The over/under feels like a close call as well and could go either way. I am going to predict a 1-1 draw and not bet on this game. It is certainly a banana skin game for RBK and Haugesund can cause them trouble with their fairly stout defence and decent set pieces.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Molde v Strømsgodset Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Molde

  • Four successive wins has them joint top of the table, with a game in hand
  • Crucial victory away to big rivals Bodø/Glimt 2-0 last time was a major boost
  • Won 29 of last 35 home league games at the Aker Stadion
  • Several injury doubts with midfielder Eirik Hestad the latest concern
  • Magnus Wolff Eikrem & #1 GK Andreas Linde likely still out again

Strømsgodset

  • Excellent 4-0 victory vs Sandefjord has moved them up to 10th position
  • Lost 3 out of 4 away games
  • 4 of their last 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • No new injuries or suspensions to deal with

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Molde are 1.35 favourites to win this match which is probably just about fair. They seem to have the bit between their teeth right now and need to keep picking up victories to apply the pressure to Bodo/Glimt. Molde have however been racking up injuries and it's a good job they have an expansive squad to cover in times like this. I have been impressed with 3rd choice keeper Oliver Petersen taking over the gloves in the absence of Andreas Linde but I still think  at some stage he will make a mistake somewhere that costs them, maybe it will be in this match. Striker Ohi Omoijuanfo is in really good form and highly likely to add to his goal tally.

I will give Stromsgodset some credit, they have played two really good matches in recent weeks when they beat Rosenborg & Sandefjord at home. Mixed in with that was a disappointing 7-2 loss to Bodo Glimt and it is that result which worries me. I am not sure they have the defensive security to keep things tight against elite teams. Godset do look pretty decent going forwards though and now that Fred Friday appears to have found his mojo again then could be dangerous. Molde sometimes play down and get sloppy vs ‘weaker’ opponents although rarely do they mess up at home. The Molde -1.5 handicap doesn’t interest me in case they only win by one goal. Over 3.5 goals DID have me interested but I think this is maybe a line too high. Probably the most likely outcome is 2-1 or 3-1 to Molde and it will be touch and go with the handicap and the over so I’ll just leave this match alone.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Tromsø v Kristiansund Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Tromsø

  • Down to 12th place after losing 3 of their last 4 games
  • Have a terrible home record with 3 losses and 1 draw so far this season
  • 6 out of 9 fixtures have ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Defensive duo Jostein Gundersen & Lasse Nilsen are both still injured

Kristiansund

  • Dropped points against Haugesund & Mjondalen after winning 5 games in a row
  • Usually strong away from home picking up some good results in the last 12 months
  • 7 out of 9 matches ended under 2.5 goals
  • No injuries or suspensions to worry about

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Tromsø started the season with some good performances, almost a sort of promotion bounce sort of thing but that appears to have evaporated now. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and even the one win in that run was against woefully out of form Stabaek. Tromsø have found things especially difficult at home where they’ve lost 3 out of 4 games and conceding early goals has often been their problem. I am not sure that the 3-5-2 system is working very well at home and they seem to leave themselves exposed more. I think this match spells trouble vs a Kristiansund outfit who are usually pretty useful on the road and can counter attack really well. KBK should not be a +0.25 underdog in this match and look to be a bet I can’t avoid. The visitors really should be outright favourites so I can’t turn this one down. At very worst they should be a DNB handicap. I’m thinking along the lines of a 0-2 or 1-2 road victory where they basically just outclass Tromsø.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: Kristiansund +0.25 Asian Handicap @2.0

Norway Eliteserien – Viking v Stabaek Preview (30/6/21)

Match Preview

Viking

  • Totally all or nothing team this year with 5 wins, 4 losses and no draws!
  • Won 3 out of 4 home games
  • 8 out of 9 fixtures ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Key midfielder Joe Bell is suspended
  • Winger Zlatko Tripic still doubtful because of injury

Stabaek

  • Lost their last 5 consecutive matches and now 2nd bottom of the table
  • Conceded a whopping 15 goals during this period and looked very insecure
  • The injury to defender Yaw Amankwah hasn't helped and he might not play again here
  • 4 of last 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Conclusion & Betting analysis

To me, the obvious pick here is over 3 goals. Most of the Viking games this season have been pretty wild and end to end, full of chances and goals. They themselves always carry a significant goal threat but the defence itself has only kept one clean sheet all season. Stabaek have been conceding goals left right and centre recently and you feel like the only way they can get a result is by scoring a few themselves. They have fast players on the break who could cause trouble and get in behind. I am expecting Viking to win but at a price of around 1.65 I am happy to leave them alone. Key midfielder Joe Bell is suspended and he has been a big part of any success they’ve had this season. I see something like a 3-1 or 3-2 home win but don’t rule out a high scoring draw if Stabaek do take their chances.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @2.0

Norway Eliteserien – Mjøndalen v Odd Preview (1/7/21)

Match Preview

Mjøndalen

  • Winless in their last 6 games, although have drawn 4 times during that run
  • Drawn all 3 home matches so far
  • Defensively solid and hard to penetrate, but struggle to create at the other end
  • Midfielder/attacker Ole Amund Sveen rated doubtful due to injury
  • 5 out of 7 matches ended with under 2.5 goals

Odd

  • Consecutive victories against Brann (3-1) and Tromso (3-0) have them in good form
  • Striker Mushaga Bakenga red hot with 8 goals in 8 games
  • Squad in good condition health wise and no suspensions
  • 5 out of 8 games ended under 2.5 goals

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Mjøndalen aren’t a particularly great watch. They tend to try and stifle games with their game management, defensive play and generally keeping things tight. You have to almost respect this but it can sometimes make them quite limited going forwards. One thing to me that sticks out from last season was how well Odd handled their physical play and style. Odd beat them twice convincingly, 6-1 at home and 2-0 away. On both occasions Mjøndalen could hardly lay a glove on them and it could be one of those matchups where Odd just have a clear edge on a team. The visitors are starting to find some form too, and have looked very good recently. Bakenga is sniffing around for goals and the injuries have dried up. For all that Mjøndalen have fought well recently and picked up some good draws, they haven’t actually won a game since their opening match which came seven matches ago. I don’t get why Odd are the underdog in this fixture. They can be backed at 1.82 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap and this seems far too generous. Odd should be outright favourites in my opinion and I am quite confident they win this game, or at very worst draw it.

Prediction: 0-2

Recommended bet: Odd +0.25 Asian Handicap @1.82

Norway Eliteserien Lillestrøm v Rosenborg Preview (25/6/21)

Match Preview

Lillestrøm

  • Found some form recently after winning 3 of their last 4 games
  • Only kept one clean sheet all season
  • Have won consecutive home fixtures
  • Centre back Lars Ranger is suspended

Rosenborg

  • Consecutive defeats to Stromsgodset & Sarpsborg have set them back
  • Only won 1 out of 4 away games this season
  • Key man Kristoffer Zacharissen back from suspension
  • Marcus Henriksen & Stefano Vecchia remain the only injuries

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I think Lillestrøm will be really fired up here. They have been in much better form recently and a switch to a three man back line has definitely been something which manager Geir Bakke has to be given credit for. Lars Ranger is suspended so someone will have to fill his place in defence. 2,000 fans will be allowed inside the stadium for the first time in a long time and it should really help LSK. They have two players, Gjermund Asen & Pal Andre Helland who will be eager to make their mark against a club who effectively let them go. Rosenborg themselves have lost two straight games rather surprisingly. I am expecting better from them here in what should be a pulsating and gripping match. I am fairly sure that the value is on Lillestrøm +0.25 but let’s not forget they are a newly promoted side and perhaps suddenly some pressure is on their shoulders. I am thinking something like a 1-1 draw is likely because surely Rosenborg aren’t going to lose three games in a row, are they? Really close to taking the Lillestrøm handicap but I have a gut feeling this might be a good swerve so I’ll just watch this game instead. 

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien Sarpsborg v Viking Preview (25/6/21)

Match Preview

Sarpsborg

  • Surprise victory 1-0 away to Rosenborg on Sunday was the first for Lars Bohinen at the club
  • Generally a strong defensive record this season apart from when they lost to Molde
  • 6 out of 7 fixtures ended under 2.5 goals
  • Injury doubt to centre back Mikael Dyrestam
  • Striker Ibrahima Kone could also miss out

Viking

  • Wildly up and down this season with 4 wins and 4 losses with no draws!
  • Terrible performance at the weekend vs Sandefjord away 0-3 
  • Have lost 3 out of 4 away games this season
  • 7 out of 8 fixtures ended with over 2.5 goals
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Conclusion & Betting analysis

This is a tough game to predict for a number of reasons. Firstly, we have a clash of styles. Sarpsborg are more of a defensive unit who have a lot of under 2.5 games. Lars Bohinen has recently taken over and there are some early signs they might be more proactive and attack minded once he has been in charge for a while. Fundamentally though, their big strength remains at the back and being a tough side to break down. I was really impressed with how they beat Rosenborg at the weekend and the 4-1 defeat to Molde was really harsh - they deserved much better. I’m a bit worried that a third fixture in the space of 8 days against a fairly tough opponent might be a lot to ask of this squad and they produce a lower quality performance. The hardest thing to predict here is which version of Viking shows up. They have blown very hot or cold but tend to be poor away. If they play like they did against Sandefjord then this will end up as another defeat. I am leaning towards a tight Sarpsborg victory 1-0 or something but I am just not sure here so happy to not bet.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None