Monthly Archives: September 2021

Norway Eliteserien – Stabaek v Strømsgodset Preview (29/9/21)

Match Preview

Stabaek

  • Victory away to Sandefjord on Sunday (3-0) has re-ignited their survival bid
  • That was their first clean sheet in 16 games!
  • Stabaek have a poor 2-2-5 home record this season
  • 14 out of 19 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Yaw Amankwah (CB) & Oliver Edvardsen (ATT) both still doubtful with injury

Strømsgodset

  • Absolutely hammered Sarpsborg 5-0 on Sunday
  • Comfortably midtable on 28 points
  • Have the worst away record in the league (1-2-6) but did win their last road fixture
  • 3 of their last 4 away games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Midfielder Johan Hove doubtful with injury

Conclusion

These two teams actually met just last week in the Norwegian Cup, a match which Godset won 5-1. They then followed it up with a 5-0 victory vs Sarpsborg in the league. SIF suddenly seem in great goalscoring form and key striker Fred Friday hasn’t bagged any of them! Godset are not as strong away from home though and rarely seem to find their mojo as much, creating less chances. It will be interesting to see how they adapt to playing on a grass surface as well. 

Eirik Kjönö’s first match in charge for Stabaek was in the reverse fixture which Godset won 2-1. It will be interesting to see what he has learned from facing them twice and losing twice. Stabaek put in a good performance at the weekend to beat Sandefjord 3-0. It was a rare clean sheet for Stabaek but I am not convinced we can expect too many more of them. Defensively, this team is usually too vulnerable. 

I am expecting to see an open game of football and the over 3 goal line stands out to me around the 1.99 mark. I think Stabaek could avoid defeat and are maybe more likely to win. They are hungry and desperate in the relegation battle and Godset have struggled on the road. I will predict 2-2 but this could be something like 2-1 or 3-2. 

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.99

France Ligue 2 – Toulouse v Caen Preview (27/9/21)

Match Preview

Toulouse

  • Top of the league and could go 6 point clear with a win
  • Won 7 out of 9 matches, 4o of them by a 2+ goals margin
  • Kept 5 clean sheets out of 9
  • CB Anthony Rouault injured with a foot problem

Caen

  • Now win in last 5 matches after a good start to the season
  • Only scored 2 goals in last 5 fixtures
  • Under 2.5 goals in 5 of last 6 games
  • Defender Ibrahim Cisse is a new injury and ruled out
  • Several attacking absences including Benjamin Jeannot & Yoann Court

Conclusion

In the early rounds of the season this looked like it was going to be a top of the table battle. Toulouse have kicked on and dominated proceedings so far but Caen have drifted somewhat. Right now, Toulouse look by far the best team in the league. Philippe Montanier has done a fantastic job in charge so far and I have to give him full credit. I always knew they had great talent on paper but with expectations high pressure often is a problem at this club. One problem for this evening is that they are without centre back Anthony Rouault due to injury and he has started every single match this season. 

Caen also have injury problems in defence with Ibrahim Cisse ruled out and Hugo Vandermersch yet to have featured this season. In attack they still miss several regular starters including Yoann Court and Benjamin Jeannot. At least top scorer Alexandre Mendy is available though. Caen are well coached under Stephane Moulin but have definitely lost their way a bit with injuries and some other unlucky elements hitting them. There remains enough ability to cause Toulouse some problems here though.

Toulouse are priced at 1.55 to win and the over 2.5 goal line is 1.95. I think the most likely outcome here is a 2-1 or 1-0 home win. There is not enough of a temptation to take Toulouse on a -1 handicap though.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Lillestrøm v Tromsø Preview (25/9/21)

Match Preview

Lillestrøm

  • In 5th place just four points off the top of the table
  • 5-1-3 home record has been reasonably good
  • Last 4 consecutive matches all ended with over 2.5 goals
  • #1 keeper Christiansen & midfielder Kaan Kairinen both injured

Tromsø

  • Just 1 win in their last 12 games see them down in 13th position
  • 3-3-4 away record is the 6th best in the league
  • Not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 9 games
  • Injury doubts to several players in all areas of the field

Conclusion

A lot depends on the makeup of the Tromsø XI. They have doubts defensively with Jenssen, Nilsen and Amundsen. We know that Felix Winther & Kent Are Antonsen are definitely ruled out of midfield and it also looks like striker ‘the cobra’ Ondrasek could miss out. With TIL being so shorthanded then it should be a good chance for Lillestrøm to win. I was a bit worried about how they performed against Brann in their most recent home game though. They lost 2-3 against another team fighting relegation and seemed to struggle with obvious expectations. This is probably going to end with a home win with over 2.5 goals and maybe both teams scoring. LSK are around the 1.70 mark though which isn’t that appealing. Over 2.5 is certainly more tempting, it just depends if the match becomes a shootout. I’ll leave this one alone. 

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Bastia v Ajaccio Preview (25/9/21)

Match Preview

Bastia

  • Just 1 win all season so far has them down as low as 18th
  • Drawn all 4 home matches, three by a 1-1 scoreline
  • Coach Mathieu Chabert has been sacked this week
  • Midfielder Diongue and striker Robic the most significant absences

Ajaccio

  • Unbeaten start to the season with 5 wins and 4 draws
  • 7 out of 9 games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Mohammed Youssef (RB) is the only new injury
  • Marchetti (CM) & Bayala have both been out for some time now

Conclusion

Here we have one of the big rivalries in French football. This is a huge Corsican derby between two old foes and things could get very spicy. This is the first competitive meeting between the two sides for 7 years and both will be desperate for a result. No away fans are allowed inside the stadium due to security concerns. Bastia sacked manager Mathieu Chabert after losing away to Valenciennes in midweek. This seems a little harsh and too early in the season but the Bastia board are desperate to stay in the division and can’t afford to have a relapse after several strong promotion seasons. With a match like this then form goes out of the window. Absolutely anything can happen. Yes, Ajaccio are the better team right now but this will be a tough venue to travel to and Bastia are going to be fired up massively. I expect a lot of fouls, free kicks and the game to have little rhythm. 0-0 or 1-1 are very possible outcomes and from a betting point of view nothing really sticks out. The goal line is as low as 1.75 which feels understandable.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Sochaux v Auxerre Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Sochaux

  • Good start to the season with 19 points in 3rd place
  • Won last 3 consecutive home games
  • 5 of last 6 games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Squad fully healthy with no injuries or suspensions

Auxerre

  • Also had a strong start. In 4th place and on 18 points
  • Unbeaten away from home with 2 draws and 2 wins
  • Kept 3 consecutive clean sheets
  • Midfielder/right back Alexandre Coeff is the only injury

Conclusion

This is going to be a really good match between two strong teams. A draw is probably the most logical result. Despite Sochaux having won their last 3 home games I still feel that they are more comfortable on the road where they can counter attack, sometimes as the underdog. Auxerre have been in decent form and manager Jean Marc Furlan has got them playing some good form at both ends of the field. He has always produced a high calibre of results away from home and I think of the two teams the most likely to win is Auxerre. In all probability though the two teams will probably cancel each other out into a draw.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Pau v Dunkerque Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Pau

  • Unbeaten in last 6 matches 
  • Won 3 out of 5 home fixtures
  • 4 out of 5 home games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • No major injuries or suspensions

Dunkerque

  • Winless after 9 matches with only 3 points on the board
  • Scored only 5 goals all season
  • Lost 3 out of 4 away games
  • CM/LB Mohamed Ouadah the only significant absentee

Conclusion

Pau should win but at a price of 1.75 I’m not really interested. I mentioned last week how they are now starting to become favourites in a lot of matches and that is a different dynamic compared to what they have been used to in recent years. There is now an expectation on their shoulders and they didn’t manage to get the win vs Valenciennes last week, only drawing 1-1. Dunkerque are struggling desperately in all areas of the game and it is difficult to see them getting anything here. They are a limited side who would prefer to grind out a result with defence yet haven’t shown signs of keeping many clean sheets this season. I see Pau taking this 1-0 or 2-0 but at such a short price there just isn’t any interest in it for me.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Niort v Paris FC Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Niort

  • In 10th place on 12 points which is a solid start to the season
  • Kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 games
  • Decent home record with 2 out of 4 wins
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Paris FC

  • Victory at home to Nimes in midweek ended a 3 game losing streak
  • Won 3 and lost 2 away matches so far
  • Last 6 consecutive fixtures ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Missing regular starters Laura (ATT), Mandouki (CM) & Guilavogui (ATT)

Conclusion

Paris FC are the better team in my opinion but a trip to Niort can sometimes be a difficult task. They have a habit of grinding out results in front of their own fans, to such an extent I’d almost be tempted to back them +0.25. Paris FC are missing some firepower without Gaetan Laura upfront and he is a massive part of their squad. I could see this ending in a draw, maybe 1-1. It’s actually a really difficult match to predict both in terms of Asian Handicap and over/under. 

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Nimes v Le Havre Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Nimes

  • Suddenly in a poor run with no win in last four games
  • Unbeaten at home this season with 3 out of 4 draws
  • Pablo Martinez (CB) & Andres Cubas (CM) back from suspension & injury

Le Havre

  • Solid start to the season with just 1 loss in first 9 games
  • Unbeaten away from home, conceding just one goal in four matches
  • At full strength with no injuries or suspension
  • Under 2.5 goals in 7 out of 9 fixtures

Conclusion

I quite like the under and Le Havre +0.5 but ultimately I’d prefer to leave this match alone. Nimes are suddenly out of form after stringing together a few poorer games. I am not sure what has happened because they looked so solid in the early stages of the campaign. They could struggle to break down a Le Havre side who are one of those really awkward opponents when they play on the road. HAC have a knack of just frustrating the opposition loads and then taking chances on the counter attack. This could end something like 0-0 or 1-1 and if either team is to win then I’d probably favour Le Havre to nick it something like 1-0. They are playing some very solid football recently.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Amiens Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Nancy

  • Winless start to the season with only 3 points from 9 games
  • Manager Danien Stendel under huge pressure - win or probably get sacked
  • Goalkeeper Nathan Trott and midfielder Sieban Daewale both injured
  • Their 5 goals scored is a league low

Amiens

  • Poor start to the season with just 1 win in 9 games
  • Better away record with just one loss in four
  • Winger Matthieu Dossevi ruled out injured
  • 5 out of 9 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Conclusion

This could be it for Daniel Stendel. Failure to beat Amiens would probably see him lose his job. Quite how much the players are playing for him I’m not sure but if they want to keep him around then they will be giving everything tonight. Amiens haven’t started the season well either but are probably more likely to win this fixture. It is interesting that the last two Amiens fixtures have ended 2-2 and 3-3 and I fancy a few goals to be scored. Amiens simply have to go for the win and there is no reason for Nancy to shy away either. Both teams should fancy 3 points leading towards an open game of football. I like taking the full over 2.5 goals around the 2.25 mark here. I think Amiens will win 2-1 or 3-1 but this could go either way and I see both teams scoring. Those who fancy Amiens could take them DNB at a decent price as well but I prefer just to take the over here.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @2.28

France Ligue 2 – Dijon v Valenciennes Preview (24/9/21)

Match Preview

Dijon

  • Won three consecutive matches under the guidance of new coach Patrice Garande
  • Kept successive clean sheets for the first time this season
  • Left back/winger Christopher Rocchia is injured
  • Midfielder Lucas Deaux back in the squad

Valenciennes

  • Victory at home to Bastia in midweek (2-1) was just their 2nd of the season
  • 4 out of 4 away games all ended under 2.5 goals
  • Not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 5 fixtures
  • Injury problems in midfield with Masson, D’Almeida & Yatabare all ruled out
  • Striker Baptiste Guillaume also injured

Conclusion

I expect Dijon to win and we are now getting to the stage where they might be considered trustworthy. The impact of Patrice Garande as manager has been fairly instant, with him winning 3 out of 4 games. I still feel the team and club is fairly unsettled though and it is not like they have beaten that much yet in the form of Bastia, Dunkerque and an out of form Caen. This is another fairly soft fixture though. Valenciennes have not been at their best this season and only won twice. I expect them to operate quite negatively away from home and try to frustrate Dijon. The VAFC defence is not as strong as it was 18 months ago though when they could be relied upon to pick up multiple clean sheets. Dijon don’t tempt me enough around odds of 1.90 but I see them winning 1-0 or 2-0.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None