Monthly Archives: October 2021

France Ligue 2 – Nimes v Ajaccio Preview (18/10/21)

Match Preview

Nimes

  • After a good start to the season, Nimes are now 6 games without a win
  • No clean sheet and 10 goals conceded in last 5 matches
  • 1-3-1 home record - have drawn quite a lot of fixtures here
  • 3 suspended players - Cubas (CM), Kone (ATT) & Doucoure (ATT)
  • Key midfielder Lamine Fomba and #1 keeper Bratveit are both injured

Ajaccio

  • After going unbeaten in first 9 games Ajaccio have lost consecutive fixtures
  • Failed to score goal in their last three league matches
  • Drawn 3 out of 5 away from home
  • Several injuries in midfield and attack. Laci, Cahbrolle & Barreto the most significant
  • Key defender Ismael Diallo is suspended

Conclusion

Both teams started the season well but have dropped off form recently. In the case of Nimes it has been an alarming decline with no win in any of their last 6 games. They have a small squad which will be tested even more tonight with several injuries and suspensions to deal with. The one area which they aren’t decimated is in defence so maybe they can recapture some of their early season form where clean sheets were more of a regularity. Nimes have only lost one home game all season vs Le Havre, who are no mugs.

It is difficult to say exactly what has gone wrong for Ajaccio. They looked like a well oiled machine but then lost the derby match vs Bastia 0-2. They followed it up with a shock 0-1 home loss to Quevilly-Rouen which would have been a major disappointment. Ajaccio also have several absences for this match and have similar squad issues that they generally lack depth.

The bookmakers have placed Nimes as slight DNB favourites around the 1.80 mark. This is probably a fair and accurate reflection. The goal line is as low as 1.75 and this also looks spot on. I am not expecting a classic here and 0-0 or 1-1 is a major contender. Considering the amount of absences on both sides this is a clear no bet match in my opinion.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Sandefjord v Odd Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Sandefjord

  • Wildly inconsistent team who are very hard to predict
  • Only won 1 of their last 8 games
  • Mixed 3-4-3 home record this season
  • Defensive absences with Vales suspended and Wembangomo injured

Odd

  • Not in very good form with 6 defeats in last 9 games
  • Did win their most recent away match 2-1 at Haugesund
  • Over 2.5 goals in 14 of last 16 league games
  • Squad in good health with no injuries or suspensions

Conclusion

Neither of these teams has a big rival or anything and are probably about as close as it comes to some sort of geographic derby. They tend to play each other close games and usually at least one fixture per season would end in a draw. This game feels very drawish to me and the exact 1-1 scoreline sticks out as the most likely outcome. This is 11th vs 10th in the table and a point each would be useful just to inch further away from the danger zone. I don’t think either team would want to lose here or take too many risks towards the end of the game. I find Sandefjord matches very hard to predict so nothing would surprise me here. I am very happy to leave this match alone but I am expecting quite a close contest.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Vålerenga Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Rosenborg

  • 7 wins in their last 9 games has put Rosenborg back in the medal hunt
  • 7-1-2 home record and won their last 4 straight at the Lerkendal Stadion
  • Big crowd expected due to a cheap ticket push
  • Defender Adam Andersson suspended
  • Several injury doubts to important players across the squad

Vålerenga

  • Victory against Godset in the previous round (3-0) was just their 2nd in last 10 games
  • Their 9 draws this season is an Eliteserien high
  • Have a terrible record at this stadium and rarely ever win at the Lerkendal in the league
  • Squad in good condition with no injuries or suspensions

Conclusion

If Rosenborg were at full strength then I’d probably back them here. But #1 keeper Andre Hansen is doubtful, as is midfielder Alexander Tettey and fullback Augustinsson. In the previous match against Kristiansund fullback Adam Andersson was sent off after just 20 seconds and is suspended. The Rosenborg squad actually lacks depth and they sometimes struggle to fill their bench with bona fide first teamers.

Vålerenga have drawn too many matches this season and can be tough to beat. I expect they will give a strong account of themselves here and might match the 1-1 draw they obtained last season at this venue. But they generally hate it at the Lerkendal Stadion and haven’t won here in the league since 2005!  I think this will be a close game of football which RBK just edge something like 1-0 or 2-1. I wouldn't be interested in backing them at 1.80 and the tempting bet would actually be under 3 goals. I’m happy just to watch this game though.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Haugesund v Mjøndalen Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Haugesund

  • 6 defeats in last 8 games has dropped Haugesund down to 9th place
  • 7 out of 10 home wins has been strong, but have lost 2 of their last 3 here
  • 8 of their last 9 Eliteserien games ended over 2.5 goals
  • Key attacker Kristoffer Velde doubtful with injury

Mjøndalen

  • Winless 11 match streak has seen Mjøndalen drop to rock bottom
  • Both teams scored in 10 of last 11 games
  • Midfielder Albin Sporrong is suspended

Conclusion

Haugesund should win but I am not interested in backing them at odds of 1.57 after seeing their performance at Tromso last time out. They looked uninterested, devoid of ideas and really lacking motivation in that fixture. Maybe things will be different here but Haugesund haven’t played particularly well for quite some time really with 6 defeats in their last 8 games. The good news is they face a Mjøndalen side who have only won twice all season. Funnily enough, one of those victories was actually against Haugesund 3-0 so perhaps the visitors can take some confidence out of that. Both teams seem to score in most Mjøndalen games these days so something like a 2-1 Haugesund win or a 1-1 draw would be my best guess. I do not have faith in either side enough to commit to a bet.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Bodø/Glimt v Sarpsborg Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Bodø/Glimt

  • 6 wins in last 7 games has them top of the table heading into the round
  • Must win to keep 3 points ahead of Molde
  • 7-3-1 home record has been strong
  • 10 out of 21 under 2.5 matches is the 4th most in the league
  • Captain and key midfielder Ulrik Saltnes ruled out for the rest of the season

Sarpsborg

  • Crucial 2-1 victory vs Lillestrom in their previous match has them 5 points clear of danger
  • Terrible 2-1-7 away record and they have not travelled well this season
  • 11 out of 21 matches with under 2.5 goals is the 2nd most in the league
  • Injury doubts to regular starters Utvik (CB), Saletros (CM) and Kone (ATT)

Conclusion

Bodø/Glimt should win this match, it’s just a question of by how many goals. The Asian Handicap line is -1.75 which means if you are to win your bet fully then they need to win by a 3 goal margin. Glimt could certainly win comfortably here but I just sense Sarpsborg might be a tough nut to crack. Sarpsborg tend to play close games with Glimt in recent years. Even last season they only lost 1-2 in this fixture and earlier this campaign managed to draw 2-2. The strength of the Sarpsborg team is in defence and they will try to set up hard to break down.

Bodø/Glimt have not been as free scoring this year and both of these teams actually have a high number of under 2.5 games. I am not foolish enough to back an under in a Glimt match because they could turn on the style at any moment, but this is not the same team that blitzed its way to 100 league goals like last season. With key leader Ulrik Saltnes now ruled out for the rest of the season with injury, it leaves a big hole to fill in the middle of the park. I think Glimt get the job done 2-0 or 3-0 and under 3.5 does tempt me. I’ll leave this game alone though.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Stabaek Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Brann

  • Unbeaten 4 match spell has seen them pick up 8 points
  • Only lost 1 of their last 6 home games
  • Big crowd of at least 11,000 will be in attendance
  • Both teams scored in last 11 Eliteserien fixtures
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 out of 10 home games
  • No significant injuries to worry about, or suspensions

Stabaek

  • Just 1 win in their last 7 games has seen Stabaek move back inside the bottom two
  • Over 2.5 goals in 15 out of 21 fixtures is the 3rd most in the league
  • 9 out of 10 away games ended with over 2.5
  • Injuries to Amankwah (CB), Edvardsen (ATT) with Kornelius Hansen (winger) suspended

Conclusion

If ever the term ‘6 pointer’ is to be used, then this is it. We have 14th vs 15th and just one point separates them. With Tromso already losing on Saturday a victory for either team would put them right on the coattails of TIL and also teams like Sarpsborg and Sandefjord. I personally think Brann will win the match. They have been playing some good football recently and actually look more like a midtable team than one fighting against relegation. A big crowd is expected which should mostly be a positive factor unless Brann find themselves a few goals down.

Stabaek have definitely improved since Eirik Kjono took charge but they have been in fairly poor form results wise with just 1 win in 7 games. This is the sort of fixture they simply can’t afford to lose but I suspect Brann will pressurise them a lot. These types of matches between two teams down towards the relegation zone usually either end as a tight and cagey 0-0 or an over type game which can go wild with goals. Both sides should fancy the win and properly go for the 3 points so I am happy to back over 3 goals in this game.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.98

Norway Eliteserien – Strømsgodset v Viking Preview (17/10/21)

Match Preview

Strømsgodset

  • In a comfortable 8th position on 29 points
  • Excellent 7-3-1 home record has been crucial this season
  • 8 out of 10 home matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Starting CB duo Gustav Valsvik and Ari Leifsson both suspended

Viking

  • Just 1 loss in their last 8 games has put Viking up to 6th place
  • Mixed and inconsistent 3-3-4 away record
  • 18 out of 21 matches ended over 2.5 goals is an Eliteserien high
  • Goalkeeper Patrik Gunnarsson suspended

Conclusion

This match surely has to end at the very least with over 2.5 goals in it. Viking are constant over merchants with their attacking and risky style often leading to wide open games of football. The goal line for this game is a generous 3.25 and worth grabbing. I would even take over 3.5 goals here because I see something like a 2-2 draw or a 3-2 victory either away. Godset are strong at home but are missing two key defenders in Valsvik and Leifsson. Valsvik in particular is a total rock and not missed a single minute this year. 

Godset have a really impressive 7-3-1 home record this year and have played their best football at Marienlyst Stadion. A big crowd of over 6,000 is expected here due to some cheap tickets being solid. The atmosphere should be intense and I would normally fancy them to prevail, but those key defensive absences make me lean towards Viking. They have the likes of Tripic and Berisha who could feast on the Godset backups. This should be a really good game of football. Hopefully the chances don’t get wasted and the over 3.25 lands comfortably.

Prediction: 2-3

Recommended bet: Over 3.25 goals @1.88

France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v Dunkerque Preview (16/10/21)

Match Preview

Valenciennes

  • After a tough start to the season 3 consecutive wins has put them back on track
  • Home record poor with just 1 win out of 5 and 3 defeats
  • 4 out of 5 home games ended with over 2.5 goals is the most in the league
  • Striker Baptiste Guillaume and midfielder Julien Masson are both injured

Dunkerque

  • Consecutive victories have moved them up to 9 points in the table
  • Poor away record with 3 out of 5 defeats
  • 3 regular starters are suspended
  • Alioune Ba (CB), Thomas Vannoye (CB) & Bilal Brahimi (AM) all banned

Conclusion

This is somewhat of a derby match between two teams from the north of France.  Only 1hr 20 mins separates the two clubs and there could definitely be an interesting sport of edge and atmosphere for this fixture. Valenciennes seem to have found some good form with 3 straight wins - albeit not always convincing. They are a slightly tempting price around the 2.15 mark here. I think they are the better side but Dunkerque will also have their tails up after firing back to back wins.

Dunkerque will probably come here with a defensive gameplan and overall I suspect that this will end in a fairly low scoring match. Perhaps a 1-0 either way is the most likely outcome although for these derby matches you never quite know what will happen. Often the best thing is just to leave them alone from a betting perspective and just watch and see.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Rodez v Sochaux Preview (16/10/21)

Match Preview

Rodez

  • After a good start to the season they have now lost 3 of their last 4 games
  • Drawn 3 out of 5 home games and are known for obtaining high % of draws
  • Under 2.5 goals in 4 of last 5 games
  • Squad in perfect condition with no injuries or suspensions

Sochaux

  • Up to 2nd place with 7 out of 11 wins
  • Good away record and have a strong track record on the road under Omar Daf
  • Under 2.5 goals in 8 out of 11 fixtures
  • Midfield duo Weissbeck & NDiaye both suspended
  • Lopy, Kaabouni & young star Alan Virginius all injured

Conclusion

The goal line is 1.75 for this match and it’s no surprise. I am expecting a very low scoring, tight sort of content devoid of many chances. If Sochaux were at full strength then I would have considered backing them. They are a great away side but missing key captain Gaetan Weissbeck is hardly ideal. In fact, their whole midfield is kind of decimated without Ndiaye, Lopy or Kaabouni. 

It should be easier for Rodez to win the midfield battle today and that could actually be a key factor and actually give RAF the edge. If either team is to win then I would say they are perhaps the most likely. A 0-0 draw is very possible but my own prediction will be 1-1 here. It feels very much like a drawish type of game anyway in which both sides would probably accept a point.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Quevilly-Rouen v Niort Preview (16/10/21)

Match Preview

Quevilly-Rouen

  • Just 1 loss in their last 6 games has QRM riding as high as 8th
  • Regular starters in midfield Kalidou Sidibe and Gustavo Sangare both suspended
  • Attackers Duckens Nazon & Ottman Dadoune both injured
  • Yet to win at their own stadium this season - only ‘home’ win was on neutral turf

Niort

  • Inconsistent side with a bunch of mixed results this season
  • Haven’t been as strong on the road with just 1 win in 6 games
  • Their away fixture list has been quite difficult - worth factoring in
  • Squad looking quite healthy with only long term absences ruled out

Conclusion

This is another match in which I quite fancy a few goals. Quevilly-Rouen have performed surprisingly well this season and their mercenary type signings to boost the squad have worked out reasonably well so far. Their matches can be difficult to predict because they range from boring 0-0 draws to entertaining 2-2 fixtures. It all depends what sort of style and tactic they opt for on the day. Against the bigger clubs with higher reputation then QRM usually park the bus more and try to defend their way to some points. However, this should be a fixture they really fancy taking 3 points out of so I think they will open up more.

Niort are another very up and down team who should also fancy taking the victory. On paper, this is a very winnable game for both teams and considering that each side is currently situated in a nice midtable position there shouldn’t be any fear of losing. Niort have had some very difficult away games this year and this is their easiest since the second round when they won at Dunkerque 2-1. The over 2.25 line is a very generously priced 2.10 and I am happy to take those odds. I think someone will win the game 2-1 and just sense this is the type of game which will produce quite a lot of chances.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: Over 2.25 goals @2.10