Monthly Archives: November 2021

Norway Eliteserien – Brann v Molde Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Brann

  • No win in their last 7 games has put Brann bottom of the table
  • 3-5-5 home record is the 2nd worst in the league
  • Only kept 2 clean sheets all season
  • Key midfielder Sivert Heltne Nilsen is suspended

Molde

  • Consecutive victories have moved them comfortably clear in2nd place
  • 5 points behind Bodø/Glimt and might need to win here to keep the title alive
  • Mixed 5-4-4 away record is only the 4th best in the league
  • 7 of their last 8 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Conclusion

Are Brann doomed? They are bottom of the table with only three games left and now have to play against Molde and Bodo Glimt. They could potentially do themselves a huge favour by beating Molde here, thus possibly crowning Glimt as champions before they face them next week. It will all depend on the earlier result in Rosenborg but either way Brann desperately need points. I am sure they will be well supported by a big crowd here and maybe they might enjoy being underdogs and spring a surprise. If Brann can get stuck in then they have a chance against a Molde side which can sometimes be poor on the road.

Molde are favourites around the 2.10 mark and they should win. The visitors have the offensive firepower to cause plenty of problems, but can be soft defensively on a bad day. If Bodo Glimt have earlier dropped points vs Rosenborg then they will likely be extra hungry to win and close the gap. I think there will be a few goals scored here but the line is 3.25 and this feels too high. I sense something like a 1-2 or 1-3 away win and it will be close if over 3.25 covers or not. This should be a good game to watch and a good atmosphere but from a betting perspective I think I will leave it alone.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Tromsø v Stabaek Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Tromsø

  • Great run of just 1 loss in last 12 games has Tromsø on the brink of survival
  • Won 3 of their last 4 home games after struggling here for most of the season
  • Under 2.5 goals in last 5 consecutive matches
  • The match will be played in very cold conditions at Alfheim Stadion

Stabaek

  • 3-0 win vs Kristiansund last week puts them in 14th place
  • Battling very hard to survive with motivation high
  • Lost 8 out of 13 away games this season
  • 11 out of 13 road games ended with over 2.5 goals - the most in the league

Conclusion

This match is going to be played at very cold temperatures. It is not expected to snow, but you can never fully rule that out in the Arctic Circle. Tromsø have been playing some good football recently and proven tough to beat. They have 31 points, which is probably going to be enough to officially survive. A draw in this match would definitely be enough to absolutely secure their spot in the Eliteserien for next season. TIL are short priced favourites around the 1.60 mark. But I think these odds are slightly short in a match they don’t HAVE to win facing an extremely motivated opponent.

Stabaek are fighting for their lives and will be giving it everything to get some points here. Their victory last week 3-0 vs Kristiansund is sure to have filled them with some confidence and extra belief. They currently are situated 14th which would be enough for a relegation playoff match. If they could win this fixture then Stabaek could possibly look upwards in the table but even a draw would not be a bad outcome. I sense this will be a low scoring match which Tromsø will probably edge 1-0 or 2-0. But this could equally end a draw. TIL do not have to push for the victory if they don’t want to and that puts me off backing them. It would not surprise me if under 2.75 goals landed in this game, it could be a tight one.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Rosenborg v Bodø/Glimt Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Rosenborg

  • In poor form with just 1 win in their last 7 games
  • Still in the hunt for the bronze medal position but need to pick up points 
  • 8-2-3 home record has been ok this season
  • 10 out of 13 home games ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Several injury doubts and midfielder Per Ciljan Skjelbred is suspended

Bodø/Glimt

  • Unbeaten in their last 15 consecutive Eliteserien matches
  • 7-4-2 away record is the best in the league
  • Need 5 more points to be officially crowned champions again
  • Fredrik André Bjørkan (DL) & Hugo Vetlesen (CM) doubtful with injury

Conclusion

This match on paper is probably Bodø/Glimt’s hardest remaining fixture as they bid to retain the Eliteserien title. They are unbeaten in 15 straight Eliteserien matches and this game reminds me of the fixture they had vs Haugesund a few weeks ago on a grass pitch. On that occasion they drew 2-2 in what was a wild match after a Europa Conference League game. Glimt played on Thursday, although only at home vs CSKA Sofia and won 2-0. Glimt have been defensively strong this season but I personally feel it will be their attack which is the key in this game.

Rosenborg have not defended well this season and have all sorts of holes at the back. Even goalkeeper Andre Hansen doesn't look very secure anymore, possibly due to some lingering injuries which have affected him this year. RBK have loads of injuries in their squad, with defender/midfielder Pavle Vagic the latest to go down. He got injured in training and will miss 4-5 months. Veteran midfielder Per Ciljan Skjelbred is suspended. 

If Glimt had a full week of rest and preparation ahead of this game I would probably take them on a DNB handicap. I think they can get the 3 points and have played well against RBK in the last few meetings. Most of the recent H2Hs have contained plenty of goals and I expect the same again. Conditions will be very cold, as low as -7 degrees Celsius but these teams are used to brutal conditions so I don’t think it will affect things too much. I see something like a 1-3 or 2-3 type of result and over 3 goals stands out to be a decent bet. This should be an attacking end to end type of fixture.

Prediction: 2-3

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.91

Norway Eliteserien – Mjøndalen v Sarpsborg Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Mjøndalen

  • 7 points picked up from their last 4 games 
  • Back in the fight for survival only 2 points off the relegation playoff
  • 2-5-6 is the worst home record in the league - did win here 5-0 recently tough
  • Two regular defenders are suspended - Nikolas Walstad and Joachim Olsen Solberg

Sarpsborg

  • Late equaliser conceded vs Odd last week (1-1) ended their 4 game winning run
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 fixtures
  • Lost 8 out of 13 away games - although did win their last two on the road
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Conclusion

Sarpsborg have been in good form but technically they have little to play for now. This can of course make them a dangerous beast but it could also lead to a below-par performance simply because motivation could be questionable. It is weird how they announced Lars Bohinen would not be renewing his contract next season and they won four straight games - which was nearly five in a row but for a late goal conceded vs Odd last week. Sarpsborg have a mixed away record but have overall struggled on the road this season.

Mjøndalen are giving it absolutely everything in their bid to survive. They beat Kristiansund here 5-0 but have also drawn with Odd and claimed a morale boosting win 2-1 vs Godset last week. Beating their bitter local rivals in such a key game will mean a lot to the players and the fans. Mjøndalen certainly have some momentum and also plenty worth fighting for. They have two defensive suspensions for this match which could impact them negatively. This is probably the hardest match of the round to predict but because Mjøndalen are scrapping hard for everything, I have a gut feeling they can get a point, or maybe even win the game. It all depends on which version of Sarpsborg shows up. Nothing interests me in terms of a bet for this game.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Kristiansund v Viking Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Kristiansund

  • Just 1 win in their last 6 games has seen KBK stall in 5th place
  • Very strong 9-2-2 home record is the 3rd best in the league
  • 4 of their last 5 fixtures all ended with over 2.5 goals
  • 9 out of 13 home matches have however ended with under 2.5
  • Midfielder Sander Kartum is suspended

Viking

  • Five points clear in 3rd place 
  • Have recently dropped points vs Sarpsborg & Haugesund
  • 6-3-4 away record is the 3rd best in the Eliteserien
  • 20 out of 27 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Key attacker Zlatko Tripic ruled out for the rest of the season

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Two picks stand out to me here - Kristiansund DNB & Over 3 goals. These days I try to avoid taking two selections in one separate match but in this instance I am going to take both. I really think Kristiansund are underrated in this game. They have an excellent home record and love being the underdog. Everyone is down on them recently after suffering bad defeats to Mjondalen & Stabaek. But those losses were away from home and when they were favourites to prevail - a position Kristiansund usually don’t enjoy.

Viking are in 3rd place but are facing pressure to secure that position. They have looked a bit nervy recently losing to Sarpsborg and only beating Haugesund. Both were games they probably should have won. They’ve lost key man Zlatko Tripic for the rest of the season with a broken foot and that is a major blow. Despite all that, I think most people are expecting Viking to win this match. But this is a very tough place to visit and I could see Kristiansund counter attacking to great effect here. They should not be slight underdogs on a DNB line so I will definitely take that pick. I see this being a frantic end to end type fixture so over 3 goals also makes sense in my opinion. Unless huge amounts of chances get missed then this outcome should at worst be a push. I see something like a 3-1 or 3-2 home victory though.

Prediction: 3-2

Recommended bet: Kristiansund DNB @2.05

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @1.78

Norway Eliteserien – Haugesund v Sandefjord Preview (28/11/21)

Match Preview

Haugesund

  • Only 1 win in their last 9 games, but decent draws vs Viking and Glimt recently
  • Strong 8-3-2 home record this season is the 5th best in the league
  • 10 out of 13 home matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Midfielder Kevin Krygard is suspended

Sandefjord

  • Down in 13th place with only 1 win in their last 9 games
  • Lost 9 out of 13 away matches this season
  • 9 out of 13 road games ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Key midfielder Harmeet Singh rated doubtful with injury

Conclusion

A lot of factors point to over 2.5 goals here. But at this stage of the season I’m not sure I want to be betting on that outcome due to the grass pitch conditions in Haugesund. Neither team has been in great statistical form recently, although Haugesund played well vs Glimt and Viking recently. They don’t have much left to play for which makes them quite unpredictable. Haugesund have been strong at home this season so they are deserving favourites.

Sandefjord still aren’t safe from relegation although they have a 6 point gap to 14th place Stabaek. They probably already have enough points but it has been a struggle recently. It was recently announced that nearly a dozen players have contracts running out at the end of the season and that the club are in negotiations to try and extend some of these. There is obviously uncertainty surrounding this which might have contributed towards their poor recent form. My best guess is that Haugesund win this match something like 2-1 but I am not sure, so will just leave this match alone.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Odd v Vålerenga Preview (27/11/21)

Match Preview

Odd

  • Just 1 win in their last 12 games has seen Odd drop down to 12th place
  • Very poor recent home form with 4 defeats and 2 draws in their last 6 games here
  • Kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 19 games
  • Over 2.5 goals in 10 out of 13 home matches
  • Midfielder Markus Kaasa doubtful with injury

Vålerenga

  • Just 1 loss in their last 7 games and they are in a solid 7th place
  • Not won any of their last 8 away league games
  • Striker Vidar Kjartansson ruled out for the rest of the season due to injury
  • Drawn 12 out of 27 games - by far the most in the league

Conclusion

 

Vålerenga drew yet again last week as they conceded a late equaliser vs Tromsø (1-1). Draws have been their achilles heel all year as they are a difficult team to predict at this stage of the season. They don’t appear to have that much to play for, although they are only 3 points behind big rivals Lillestrom so would love to finish above them. Manager Dag Eilev Fagermo would also like to beat his old club, especially after suffering defeat here 1-4 last season.

Odd are still not safe from relegation. They do have a 6 point cushion to Stabaek and with a better goal difference, but with only 3 games left they did not foresee that their safety wouldn’t be assured. Odd have had some big defensive problems this season and just one clean sheet in their last 19 games tells its own story. They have been involved in a lot of over 2.5 matches this year and to be honest Vålerenga should have had a lot more as well. 9 of their games have ended exactly 1-1 this year and that is the danger scoreline again. I am going to back over 2.5 goals. The price is not great around the 1.72 mark but I think this will be an open game containing quite a lot of chances.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @1.72

Norway Eliteserien – Lillestrøm v Strømsgodset Preview (27/11/21)

Match Preview

Lillestrøm

  • Defeat away to Glimt last week (2-0) means they stay in 6th place
  • 6-3-4 home record is only the 10th best in the league
  • Mixed recent record with over/under results
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Strømsgodset

  • Home defeat to local rivals Mjondalen last week (1-2) would have hurt
  • Situated in a comfortable midtable position with not much to play for now
  • 1-4-8 away record is the worst in the Eliteserien
  • #1 keeper Viljar Mhyra and right back Lars Vilsvik both doubtful to play

Conclusion

Lillestrøm are not the greatest price here but they should win fairly comfortably. Their form has dropped off a bit recently and in total they have lost 5 of their last 10 games. Some of their recent fixtures have not been easy though and this is a far more manageable game. A few weeks ago they easily dominated Stabaek 3-0 here and I expect a similar sort of encounter. Lillestrøm have had a strong season overall and to finish anywhere in the top half would be a decent achievement. 

Strømsgodset have also had a fairly good year. Many people expected them to struggle this season but for the most part have been comfortably positioned in midtable. Most of their success has been at home though and it has been a major struggle on the road. Godset have the worst away record out of anyone in the league and haven’t travelled well. To be honest, their overall form in recent weeks hasn’t been very good anyway. The almost freak 6-0 win vs Molde is their only victory in the last 8 games. This is a boring and basic pick but Lillestrøm just to win outright at 1.70 is my selection. They really should get the 3 points.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Lillestrøm to WIN @ 1.70

France Ligue 2 – Dijon v Auxerre Preview (22/11/21)

Match Preview

Dijon

  • Completely 'all or nothing' side with 5 wins, 9 defeats and just 1 draw this season
  • 7 of their last 8 games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • 3-1-4 home record has been mediocre
  • Several absences to key starters due to both injury and suspension
  • Striker Mickael Le Bihan and left back Adama Fofana the most significant absences

Auxerre

  • Three consecutive victories has them up to 3rd in the table
  • 3-3-1 away record. Have only lost once on their travels
  • 4 of their last 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Squad close to full strength with the trio of Sakhi, Lloris & Coeff all returning from injury

Conclusion

Dijon matches don’t always tell the full story recently. They probably should have picked up more points and have looked fairly decent under the management of Patrice Garande. However, they don’t take enough chances and find ways to shoot themselves in the foot - which kind of sums up Dijon’s season so far. They are back inside the bottom 3 positions - mostly due to their terrible run at the start of the campaign. Absences to several regular starters, including striker Mickael Le Bihan does not help them here.

Auxerre are the slight favourites with the bookmakers on a DNB handicap and I would say they are most likely team to win here. Jean Marc Furlan has them playing some decent football right now and they head into the contest having won their last three consecutive matches. If they are allowed to impose themselves on the game then it will spell trouble for Dijon. I see an away win and over 2.5 goals landing. Maybe both teams will score. Dijon have had a lot of under 2.5 games recently but most of their fixtures should have contained more goals. I will leave this match alone. It is also a regional derby affair so the crowd could come into play. Dijon are no mugs either and will have some sort of gameplan to be competitive.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Norway Eliteserien – Molde v Rosenborg Preview (21/11/21)

Match Preview

Molde

  • Victory at home to Sandefjord last week (3-1) has moved them back within 5 points of Bodo Glimt
  • 10-1-2 home record is the best in the league
  • 11 out of 13 home games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Rosenborg

  • Just 1 win in their last 6 games has seen RBK drop down to 4th place
  • 4-5-4 away record has been quite mediocre
  • 19 out of 26 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Right back Erlend Reitan is suspended
  • Several injury problems across the whole squad

Conclusion

Rosenborg are 5/1 to win this match which might just be the biggest price they’ve been to win an Eliteserien game for several years. Molde should get the 3 points though. They are much the better team and in a more favourable situation. Molde at home are a very difficult force to stop and they have the best home record out of anyone in the Eliteserien. The Aker Stadion is a real fortress. They seemed to recover from their 6-0 mauling at the hands of Godset but did show some vulnerability in that fixture. If Rosenborg were at full strength and firing on all cylinders then they might have a chance of an upset but they simply aren’t in good enough form. The visitors have too many injury doubts and the squad is actually far too thin to be able to compensate. I am expecting an open game of football with a few goals but the goal line of either 3.25 or 3.5 doesn’t interest me. I think something like 3-0 or 3-1 Molde is likely.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet: None