Monthly Archives: December 2021

Eliteserien Betting Record Review 2021

This was a disappointing season after the excellent 2020 which saw me obtain +13 units of profits in 96 selections. The main problem was that I only netted a profit of +0.92 units on over/under selections, whereas last season I had ten times the success in that market. It is difficult to exactly pinpoint what went wrong. The over 2.5 % for Eliteserien was still very high - close to the 61% mark. 56 of my selections in this market were on overs so it was not like there was a lack of goals. Of the 24.5 overs losers I had, I was unlucky to run into exactly ten 1-1 scorelines - many of which the line I was on either 2.5 or 2.75. There are fine margins in football and if just 3 or 4 of those 1-1s had turned into 2-1s then I would be looking at the same +13 units of profit this season.

The two worst teams for me were Tromsø & Vålerenga. I wasn't actually aware until I checked the stats how badly Tromsø were for me this season and they they cost me -5.88 units across all selections. They ended with the most under 2.5 matches in the whole league but I lost on 6 over selections with this team. They had a weird home and away dynamic which made no sense. Vålerenga cost me -3.32 units and I was much more aware of them being a problem. This was mostly due to their inanely high amount of draws, especially 1-1s. Strømsgodset were another poor team for me but overall I made profit on 11 out of the 16 teams. It was just a select few which cost me.

I improved on handicap selections this year but in 2022 I will need to get back to winning more over selections to obtain better profit. I will definitely need some more luck - such as avoiding excessive 1-1 draws but I also need to find a way of limiting my losses on some of the teams that don't go over enough. An overall profit of +4.48 units is acceptable enough but the bare minimum of what I expect of myself. Thanks to anyone who stayed loyal this season and hope my previews gave some good insights. The 2022 season is set to run from April 2nd through to mid November

Month Bets Staked P/L Yield
May 2021 21 21 -2.355 -11%
June 2021 21 21 +5.125 24.40%
July 2021 11 11 -0.04 -0.03%
August 2021 7 7 -0.01 -0.01%
September 2021 11 11 +3.39 30.81%
October 2021 15 15 +1.065 7.1%
Nov & Dec 2021 15 15 -2.69 -17.9%
OVERALL 101 101 +4.485 4.44%

Last update - 17th Dec 2021

Eliteserien Betting Record 2020

Eliteserien Betting Record 2019

France Ligue 2 – Ajaccio v Grenoble Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Ajaccio

  • Top of the table with 5 wins in their last 7 games
  • 6-2-1 home record is the best in the league
  • A staggering 16 out of 18 matches ended with under 2.5 goals
  • #1 keeper Benjamin Leroy likely injured

Grenoble

  • Down to 15th place after 3 straight defeats
  • Have now sacked manager Maurizio Jacobacci 
  • Caretaker manager Frederic Gueguen is in charge
  • 1-2-6 away record is the worst in the league
  • Key playmaker Yoric Ravet still injured

Conclusion

The big question here is how Grenoble will play after recently sacking their manager Maurizio Jacobacci. Neither team were involved in the Coupe de France at the weekend so have been able to focus on this fixture. Ajaccio are top of the league but they aren’t a very convincing team. A lot of their wins are by exactly a one goal margin and they have dropped points to the likes of Pau, Valenciennes and Quevilly Rouen in the last few weeks. I definitely think ACA prefer being the underdog. The sheer amount of under 2.5 fixtures in their games is quite remarkable and this is a defence which has only conceded 8 goals. Grenoble are a wildcard team for this match though because we don’t know what to expect from them. The most logical outcome is something like 1-0 or 2-0 Ajaccio but at a price of 1.65 I am happy to leave them alone.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Sochaux v Valenciennes Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Sochaux

  • Only 1 win in their last 6 games has seen Sochaux drop down to 6th place
  • 5-2-2 home record this season
  • 8 out of 9 hime games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • #1 keeper Prevot and left back N’Dour both ruled out

Valenciennes

  • Defeat to Paris FC last week was the first for interim coach Christophe Delmotte
  • Mixed 3-4-2 away record
  • 7 out of 9 away games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Midfielder Julien Masson not included in the squad

Conclusion

Interim Valenciennes coach Christophe Delmotte has gone back to basics in both away matches he took charge of, drawing 0-0 at Le Havre and Ajaccio. Those are not easy games, although VAFC did ride their luck in both encounters and probably deserved to lose. I am massively tempted by backing Sochaux at a price of 1.90 but something isn’t quite right with them at the moment. They beat Pau in their most recent home matches, but even then needed a late goal. Sochaux have not been convincing enough recently but their extra quality and class should be enough here. They are just the better team and it might only require one goal to win if Valenciennes continue to operate so defensively away. Under 2 or 2.25 goals is highly likely to land in this match. 1-0 or 2-0 Sochaux is what I see happening but the risk of a draw puts me off backing them odds-on. 

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Rodez v Bastia Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Rodez

  • 4 out of 6 recent wins have moved Rodez up to as high as 7th
  • Mixed 3-3-2 home record
  • 8 of their last 10 matches ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Defenders Bradley Danger (susp) & Nassim Ouammou (inj) both ruled out

Bastia

  • 9 points from 7 games since new coach Regius Brouard took over
  • Lost 7 out of 9 away matches this season
  • 15 out of 18 games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • #1 keeper Vincensini (inj) & defender Le Cardinal (susp) both ruled out

Conclusion

This isn’t going to be a very exciting game. Both coaches and teams are defensive minded and usually fairly negative. The goal line is as low as 1.75 here and it is of no surprise. I would say this is a 0-0 contender, although Bastia often travel so poorly that Rodez might nick it 1-0 or something. Taking the hosts -0.25 or DNB would probably be quite a safe option because it is unlikely Bastia win. All it takes is one moment though and if they score, Bastia would likely be very hard to break down.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Quevilly-Rouen v Caen Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Quevilly-Rouen

  • Consecutive victories has moved them up to 11th
  • Over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 games
  • 2-3-3 home record has been relatively poor
  • No new injuries or suspensions

Caen

  • Victory vs Guingamp last week (2-0) was their first in 8 games
  • 2-5-1 away record - only lost one away match so far
  • 6 out of 8 road games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Attacker Mehdi Chahiri injured for 2 months, but no other new absences

Conclusion

I kind of fancy over 2 or 2.25 goals here but this is a tough match to predict. It is capable of going either way. Caen finally managed to win again after a very lean spell. They have been playing better football recently, drawing away to Auxerre and were unlucky to lose at home to Paris FC. It has not been the easiest start to life at the club for coach Stephane Moulin but he is a quality manager and he will eventually sort things out. Quevilly-Rouen have a lot of pace and physically in their team and can be dangerous on the break. However, I would expect Caen to have a good gameplan and if they play to their potential they should win. I see something like a 1-2 away victory and the overs did tempt me. Something tells me Caen could put up a disciplined performance and keep a clean sheet if they battle really hard though, so I’ll leave this alone.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Paris FC v Amiens Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Paris FC

  • Won their last 5 straight matches with only one goal conceded
  • 4-3-1 home record has been strong
  • Under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8 games
  • #1 keeper Vincent DeMarconnay ruled out

Amiens

  • Just 1 defeat in their last 11 games has moved Amiens up to 14th
  • Drawn 5 out of 8 away matches
  • 6 out of 8 road games ended with under 2.5 goals
  • Right back Mickael Alphonse remains the only significant absence

Conclusion

Both teams are in good form and this is a tough match to predict. Paris FC have won 5 straight games and look extremely solid. Amiens have finally managed to string a couple of wins together after a largely disappointing season so far. They don’t lose many games and I expect this will be a close, tight sort of match decided by one moment or a mistake. I think Paris FC have the coaching edge with Thierry Laurey though and they are really focused to attack the top of the table right now. Paris FC have won a lot of matches 1-0 recently and something similar again wouldn’t surprise me. I can’t back them at a price of 1.95 though because Amiens can be hard to break down themselves. For those who like unders, under 2 or 2.25 would probably be a good pick.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 2 – Niort v Pau Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Niort

  • Up to 8th place after a mixed run of recent results
  • 4-1-3 home record, usually win or lose here
  • 4 of their last 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Left back Darlin Yongwa is injured
  • #1 keeper Mathieu Michel is in the squad for the first time this season

Pau

  • Lost 6 and won 3 of their last 9 games with no draws
  • 1-2-5 away record is the 2nd worst in the league
  • Over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games
  • Midfielder Quentin Daubin (susp) & attacker David Gomis (inj) ruled out

Conclusion

This is a tough game to predict. It really depends which version of Niort shows up. They beat Toulouse here 2-1 but also lost at home to Nancy not so long ago. They generally prefer being a clear underdog rather than a favourite but in this instance the bookies can’t really decide. This is the sort of fixture where nobody is strongly fancied to win so maybe it will end a draw. In terms of betting, over 2.25 goals does interest me. A lot of recent Niort fixtures have been quite open and all season long I have been attracted by Pau overs. The way they play should yield more goals but a combination of bad luck and poor misses often costs them. This feels like the sort of match someone will win 2-1 but I don’t know who. Because of Pau’s poor away record I would just about predict Niort to get the 3 points but I see both teams scoring and the over landing in this game.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: Over 2.25 goals @2.06

France Ligue 2 – Nimes v Toulouse Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Nimes

  • Won 3 of their last 4 games to move back to 10th place
  • Very mixed 3-3-3 home record
  • Last 3 home games all ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Defender Kelyan Guessoum is injured

Toulouse

  • A run of just 2 wins in their last 9 games has dropped Toulouse down to 2nd place
  • Strong 4-4-1 away record - only lost once
  • Their 38 goals scored is by far the most in the league
  • Attacker Rafael Ratao is suspended

Conclusion

By a quirk of the fixture list these two teams played against each other just a few days ago in the Coupe de France. Toulouse won that match 4-1 and I see them winning again. Nimes for me are quite overrated. They are managed by a poor coach and have actually gotten really lucky in several recent games. Les Crocos have won 3 of their last 4 league games but probably didn’t deserve any of them. Toulouse have been out of form in terms of results but actual performances have merited more points. I think this is an ideal fixture for them to finish the year on a high. The visitors are quite simply the better team and as long as they stay composed should win. I also considered over 2.5 goals for this game but ultimately just taking Toulouse straight on the nose at 1.84 is good enough for me.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet: Toulouse -0.5 Asian Handicap @1.84

France Ligue 2 – Nancy v Dijon Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Nancy

  • Rock bottom of the table with just 2 wins all season
  • Lost last 3 consecutive games following a brief resurgence
  • Over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 games
  • 4 suspended players - including defenders Ciss & El Kaoutari who would have started

Dijon

  • In 16th place after a mixed set of results recently
  • Only drawn 2 out of 18 games, the least of anyone in the league
  • Last 3 away games all ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Left back Rocchia & AMID Benzia both injured

Conclusion

Both teams should fancy the win, leading to quite an open game. Nancy need to start winning games otherwise will risk getting cast adrift at the bottom. They are already 7 points off just the playoff position after a run of 3 straight losses. Benoit Pedretti is still in charge and has been given backing from the board. They believe he is the right man after he took over from Daniel Stendel earlier this season. The players do seem more behind him for sure. I would say Dijon are the more likely team to win this match but they are too unreliable to back. Goals are likely because of the need for both teams to win. There are also a few defensive absences on both sides which could help the overs. I think over 2.25 goals is worth backing with 2-1 either way or even a 2-2 draw possibility.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: Over 2.25 goals @ 2.05

France Ligue 2 – Guingamp v Dunkerque Preview (21/12/21)

Match Preview

Guingamp

  • Lost 3 of their last 4 games to drop down to 14th
  • 3-2-3 home record - which has been improving recently
  • Last 5 consecutive home games ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Midfielder Souleymane Diarra is the only main absentee

Dunkerque

  • Down in 19th place after losing their last 4 straight games
  • 2-1-5 away record so far
  • 5 out of 8 away games ended with over 2.5 goals
  • CB Alioune Ba injured and midfielder Dudouit suspended

Conclusion

Guingamp ‘should’ win this game but at a price of around 1.80 I think I will give them a miss. They are too much of an inconsistent side in my opinion and capable of blowing very hot or cold. One big positive is that their squad is in very good health with few absences. I think the loss of CB Alioune B to injury could be a problem for Dunkerque. They have already been too leaky this season anyway and on the back of four straight defeats the last thing they want is one of their more regular reliable players ruled out. Guingamp home games are usually open affairs containing several goals so I think over 2.25 is worth backing. Dunkerque have only kept 3 clean sheets all season and could be a danger on the break. I see something like a 2-1 or 3-1 home win.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: Over 2.25 goals @2.01