Category Archives: Ligue 1

France Ligue 1 – Lorient v Lille Preview (10/9/21)

Match Preview

Lorient

  • Five points on the board after four matches is a decent start for FCL
  • Won their only previous home game 1-0 vs Monaco
  • Veteran CB Jeremy Morel is injured
  • Midfielder playmaker Enzo Le Fee also ruled out

Lille

  • Also have five points from their first four games
  • Yet to keep a clean sheet this season
  • 3 out of 4 matches ended with over 2.5 goals
  • Attacking duo Jonathan Bamba & Timothy Weah both still injured

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Lille comfortably won both meetings last season by 4-0 and 4-1 margins. Based upon that the 2.35 that they win this evening could look a big price. However, this is a different Lille with a huge target on their backs as defending champion and it has been a difficult start to the season. They finally got a win on the board by beating Montpellier 2-1 just before the international break but in all honesty they have not looked very convincing. The injuries to Weah and Bamba don’t help, but more worryingly the watertight defence which conceded few goals last year has yet to even keep a clean sheet.

Lorient are a weird team and will probably line up in a 5-3-2 formation here. I think they have been lucky to pick up as many points as they have done and at times have been massively outplayed. The manager Christophe Pelissier certainly gets the most out of this team. Lorient ground out a 1-0 win vs Monaco at home and they will probably just try and frustrate Lille whilst also hitting them on the break. The injury to Jeremy Morel at the back really hurts them. He might be old but he is still a key cog in the Lorient wheel.

I think Lille will take the victory tonight but I am not convinced by them enough to actually bet anything. I suspect they will finally get their act together defensively and keep a clean sheet, so I’d be looking at something like a 0-1 or 0-2 away win.

Prediction: 0-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 1 – Lorient v Monaco Preview (13/8/20)

Match Preview

Lorient

  • Started the season with a fortunate 1-1 draw away to St Etienne
  • Sold striker Yoanne Wissa to Brentford this week for nearly £9m
  • Attacking midfielder Quentin Boisgard still ruled out with COVID
  • Winger Stephane Diarra is the only other main injury
  • 10-2-7 home record last season was actually the 6th best in the league

Monaco

  • Disappointingly drew 1-1 at home to Nantes last week
  • In the middle of a hectic UCL schedule. They face Shakhtar in just 4 days time
  • Key centre back Benoit Badiashile is injured
  • Could be some squad rotation with Boadu and Jean Lucas likely to come in again

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Monaco were really poor last week and struggled to break down Nantes. It is clear they maybe have too much of an eye on the Champions League qualifying right now and are perhaps untrustable. Monaco should still have too much for Lorient here whatever sort of XI they field, but this match will probably mean more to Lorient. Les Merlus had a decent home record last season and will be looking forward to welcoming back their own fans. Monaco actually won this fixture last season 5-2 and the other meeting ended 2-2. If I was to bet on anything then over 2.25 or over 2.5 is something I’d consider. Monaco to win around the 1.85 mark doesn’t really interest me if they lack focus like they did last Friday night. I am expecting Monaco to find a way to get the 3 points this time though, something like 2-1 maybe. Lorient will likely try and frustrate them with a back five formation but they are unlikely to be as solid as Nantes were. I am happy to leave this match alone and probably avoid most Monaco games until September to be honest.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 1 – Troyes v PSG Preview (7/8/21)

Match Preview

If you are going to face PSG this season then now is the time. They are going to be missing an abundance of key players, most notably Neymar, Di Maria, Verrati & Paredes. This is still going to be a decent XI that takes to the field though and it will be a chance for certain individuals to shine and catch the eye. In some ways, they are lucky to be facing a newly promoted side in the first match but it was the same last season and they lost against Lens. Troyes are going to be bang up for this game and give it their absolute all. The crowd should get behind them big style and maybe it will be a banana skin. They head into the match on the back of some nice promotion momentum and the squad is seemingly in decent condition. 

From a betting perspective, PSG are 1.35 favourites, which to be honest feels a bit on the short side. If I was to bet anything in this game then over 2.75 or over 3 goals would be my pick. However, if Troyes park the bus and just operate defensively then it will likely lead to a closed game of football which PSG sneak 1-0 or 2-0. I would like to see Troyes have a go and really get at PSG because I feel that is the best way for them to get points. I am not going to take anything pre game for this fixture and just watch it. Logically I think PSG take it something like 1-2 or 1-3 but I am not entirely sure.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 1 – Lyon v Brest Preview (7/8/21)

Match Preview

Lyon

  • 4th placed finish last season means they missed out on the Champions League
  • First game in charge for new manager Peter Bosz
  • Defensive duo Henrique (DL), Da Silva (CB) are both suspended
  • Maxwel Cornet and Jason Denayer ruled out through injury and COVID
  • Midfielder Bruno Guimaraes on international duty
  • Lyon home record last season was 11-3-5

Brest

  • Survived last season by just a one point margin
  • First match in charge for new manager Michel Der Zakarian
  • Squad condition good with only long term injuries Lasne & Herelle ruled out
  • New goalkeeper Marco Bizot is included in the squad
  • Away record last season was 3-4-12 and the third worst in the league

*NEW*

Lyon Season Preview 2021/22

Brest Season Preview 2021/22

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Lyon are priced around the 1.33 mark to win this match which actually seems quite short in my opinion. The Asian Handicap line is -1.5 which is a horrible type of line to be betting on any team, let alone in the first match. The obvious worry for OL is at the back. They are missing a load of defenders and it looks like youngsters Malo Gusto and Castello Lukeba could both be in the XI. Neither have ever started a Ligue 1 match before. Lyon are close to full strength in midfield and attack but there are a number of players not up to full match sharpness and will likely only be good to come off the bench in the 2nd half.

Brest come here under the management of Michel Der Zakarian for the first time. Their pre season hasn’t been great but he is a wily old fox who will have some tricks up his sleeve. I am sure the Brest manager will come here with a gameplan which at least involves exposing Lyon on the break or some set pieces. My gut feeling for this game is for over 2.5 goals to land but the goal line is an extreme 3.5! This seems mega high for the first round of the season and to be honest I almost feel that Lyon are overrated here. It is like the expectation is for them to blitz past Brest something like 3-0 or 4-0. I don’t see that happening and if anything Brest could be some value on a handicap. There are a lot of question marks in my mind surrounding this fixture so I would say it’s probably best just watched. I see something like a 2-1 or 2-2 type result.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Nantes Preview (6/8/21)

Match Preview

Monaco

  • Played just 3 days ago in the UCL qualifiers vs Sparta Prague (2-0)
  • Finished 3rd last season on 78 points
  • Had the best home record in Ligue 1 last season (12-5-2)
  • New signings Nubel (GK), Jean Lucas (CM) & Boadu (ATT) included in the squad
  • Benjamin Lecomte (GK) & Krepin Diatta (AM) are the only main injuries

Nantes

  • Survived by the skin of their teeth last season in the relegation playoff
  • Had a good record from when Antoine Kombouare took over as head coach
  • Overall away record of 6-5-8 was not too bad
  • New signing Wylan Cyprien is injured
  • DMID Pedro Chirivella is suspended

*NEW*

Monaco Season Preview 2021/22

Nantes Season Preview 2021/22

Conclusion & Betting analysis

I have to think that Monaco’s extra competitive match sharpness could be crucial here. They played just 3 nights ago in Prague but looked quite good and it is probably beneficial at this stage of the campaign to be playing more matches. Monaco finished the 2nd half of last season like an absolute train under Nico Kovacs and I think this year they are the most likely side to push PSG. The principality side have been known for sluggish starts in recent years but I don’t think they will drop any points here. Monaco have too many attacking weapons for then not to rack up at least few goals facing a Nantes side which has looked a bit disjointed in pre season.

Friendly results are of course not important but they have lacked goals and stuttered against sides like Niort, Lorient & Clermont. Having key man upfront Randal Kolo Muani back from Olympic duty is big and he is included in the squad tonight. New signing Wylan Cyprien is injured and regular starter at DMID Pedro Chirivella suspended. I think Nantes will have a conservative gameplan but I just don’t see this team being solid enough to resist Monaco. I personally see something like a 3-0 or 3-1 home victory and the only decision is whether to take the -1.25 handicap or back over 2.75 goals. I think both will cover but I have ultimately leaned towards the handicap because it brings the 2-0 result into play and I worry about Nantes’ lack of bite in attack for this match.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet: Monaco -1.25 Asian Handicap @2.02

France Ligue 1 – St Etienne v Lyon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

This is usually a cracking match to watch and full of great intense rivalry between two teams who hate each other. I have been burnt before betting on the fixture so I’m always reluctant to get involved. The formbook should be thrown out of the window, but I’d say it’s Lyon who have looked better recently. Historically, OL have a strong past record in these derbies too, although have now lost on both of their last two visits to Le Stade Geoffroy Guichard. I actually think St Etienne are great value on a +0.5 handicap. How on earth are Lyon odds-on here? These odds seems very strange to me, there is no way OL should be so short. If I had more confidence in Sainte right now, I’d totally back them. But they just haven't been playing well enough for my liking and something isn’t quite right. My best guess is a draw here but it could end anything so the most sensible option is probably to refrain from betting.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Caen Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

Marseille results have improved recently, and they may well win this match. However, I don’t think it’ll be easy against a Caen side who have been surprisingly hard to break down this season. Their defensive record is fairly impressive and most of their matches are fairly tight, containing relatively few goals. A whopping 10/11 of their fixtures have ended under 2.5 and I’m willing to bet on that happening again. In fact, I’m surprised a 2.75 goal line is on offer. I’m guessing the presumption is that OM will easily win and could potentially run riot. But they played in the midweek Europa League so that distraction won't have helped them. I think the hosts will labour towards a victory, maybe 1-0 or 2-0. It’s possible Caen could even get a point here and surprise everyone. Either way, I’m not expecting a classic so I think unders on this 2.75 line is sensible.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Under 2.75 goals @1.89

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Metz v Lille Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

First game in charge for new Metz coach Frederic Hantz, who I actually think is a terrific appointment. He has a good past pedigree in this division and his sort of style should suit Metz. This is a battle between the bottom two teams in the division and I’m expecting an open fixture. Often when two poor out of form teams play each other then things can get a bit frantic, and you've got to think both outfits will fancy their chances of the win. Both desperately need a victory and indeed the pressure is desperately on coach Marcelo Bielsa. He could be on his last legs and defeat would probably see him sacked. I don’t know why Metz are +0.25 underdogs and they look a good value bet to me. Who would back Lille as a favourite in any fixture right now? They look a mess, devoid of confidence and with the new manager factor to consider, I’m firmly in the Metz court for this one.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Metz +0.25 @1.86

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.92

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Nice v Dijon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

My concern with Nice is that their European endeavours this season have affected them too much. The backlog of games has been a real hindrance and they’ve struggled to juggle domestic and European matches. It’s also taken its toll on the squad in terms of injuries, with many key men often being ruled out. That's the same case again today and there’s a long list of absences. I really think Dijon are underestimated here and I like the idea of backing them on a +0.75 handicap. Les Rouges are better than their league position anyway and have picked up form recently. They've had a whole week of rest and I could see them catching Nice out in many ways. I also like backing over 2.5 goals because I think both teams will play in quite an open fashion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended up as an away win and I feel there is good potential for both bets to win.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Dijon +0.75 @1.94

    Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.5 goals @1.88

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Troyes v Strasbourg Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

The bookmakers can’t separate either side here and in some places Strasbourg are slight favourites. This is wrong in my opinion, Troyes do deserve some sort of favoritism, between a DNB and -0.25 handicap. Both teams are newly promoted and should fancy their chances of winning here. This fixture ended 4-0 last season and it could be a good opportunity for Troyes to win again. Neither outfit has looked great defensively of late and the step up a division is maybe taking is toll on everyone. But I would expect both will enjoy this game as a chance to flex their wings a bit and open up, leading to an end to end type fixture. I fancy the overs based on current form and match situation. The goal line looks generous with a 2.25 line offered around the 1.85 mark. Here is one of those type of games where anyone could win and a high scoring draw can’t be ruled out, so I’m happy to strike with the overs.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.84

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player