Category Archives: Ligue 1

France Ligue 1 – St Etienne v Lyon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

This is usually a cracking match to watch and full of great intense rivalry between two teams who hate each other. I have been burnt before betting on the fixture so I’m always reluctant to get involved. The formbook should be thrown out of the window, but I’d say it’s Lyon who have looked better recently. Historically, OL have a strong past record in these derbies too, although have now lost on both of their last two visits to Le Stade Geoffroy Guichard. I actually think St Etienne are great value on a +0.5 handicap. How on earth are Lyon odds-on here? These odds seems very strange to me, there is no way OL should be so short. If I had more confidence in Sainte right now, I’d totally back them. But they just haven't been playing well enough for my liking and something isn’t quite right. My best guess is a draw here but it could end anything so the most sensible option is probably to refrain from betting.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Caen Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

Marseille results have improved recently, and they may well win this match. However, I don’t think it’ll be easy against a Caen side who have been surprisingly hard to break down this season. Their defensive record is fairly impressive and most of their matches are fairly tight, containing relatively few goals. A whopping 10/11 of their fixtures have ended under 2.5 and I’m willing to bet on that happening again. In fact, I’m surprised a 2.75 goal line is on offer. I’m guessing the presumption is that OM will easily win and could potentially run riot. But they played in the midweek Europa League so that distraction won't have helped them. I think the hosts will labour towards a victory, maybe 1-0 or 2-0. It’s possible Caen could even get a point here and surprise everyone. Either way, I’m not expecting a classic so I think unders on this 2.75 line is sensible.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Under 2.75 goals @1.89

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Metz v Lille Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

First game in charge for new Metz coach Frederic Hantz, who I actually think is a terrific appointment. He has a good past pedigree in this division and his sort of style should suit Metz. This is a battle between the bottom two teams in the division and I’m expecting an open fixture. Often when two poor out of form teams play each other then things can get a bit frantic, and you've got to think both outfits will fancy their chances of the win. Both desperately need a victory and indeed the pressure is desperately on coach Marcelo Bielsa. He could be on his last legs and defeat would probably see him sacked. I don’t know why Metz are +0.25 underdogs and they look a good value bet to me. Who would back Lille as a favourite in any fixture right now? They look a mess, devoid of confidence and with the new manager factor to consider, I’m firmly in the Metz court for this one.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Metz +0.25 @1.86

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.92

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Nice v Dijon Preview (5/11/17)

Match Preview

My concern with Nice is that their European endeavours this season have affected them too much. The backlog of games has been a real hindrance and they’ve struggled to juggle domestic and European matches. It’s also taken its toll on the squad in terms of injuries, with many key men often being ruled out. That's the same case again today and there’s a long list of absences. I really think Dijon are underestimated here and I like the idea of backing them on a +0.75 handicap. Les Rouges are better than their league position anyway and have picked up form recently. They've had a whole week of rest and I could see them catching Nice out in many ways. I also like backing over 2.5 goals because I think both teams will play in quite an open fashion. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this ended up as an away win and I feel there is good potential for both bets to win.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Dijon +0.75 @1.94

    Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.5 goals @1.88

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Troyes v Strasbourg Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

The bookmakers can’t separate either side here and in some places Strasbourg are slight favourites. This is wrong in my opinion, Troyes do deserve some sort of favoritism, between a DNB and -0.25 handicap. Both teams are newly promoted and should fancy their chances of winning here. This fixture ended 4-0 last season and it could be a good opportunity for Troyes to win again. Neither outfit has looked great defensively of late and the step up a division is maybe taking is toll on everyone. But I would expect both will enjoy this game as a chance to flex their wings a bit and open up, leading to an end to end type fixture. I fancy the overs based on current form and match situation. The goal line looks generous with a 2.25 line offered around the 1.85 mark. Here is one of those type of games where anyone could win and a high scoring draw can’t be ruled out, so I’m happy to strike with the overs.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @1.84

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Nantes v Toulouse Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

Nantes aren’t a bad price here and could be backed on a -0.25 handicap at decent enough odds. However, I fear the draw too much. Toulouse are a solid team who aren't in bad form and won't be easy to break down. Nantes aren’t the most free scoring team at the best of times, they couldn't even net against Dijon last week and the first goal (if one is scored) would be absolutely massive here. Toulouse are missing rock at the back, Christopher Julien who is also very dangerous from set pieces. In addition, left wing back Moubandje is injured. This could tip the scales in Nantes’ favour and maybe allow them to sneak another 1-0 win. But I haven't been impressed with them in the last 2-3 weeks, so I’ll leave this one alone. It goes without saying this match also has strong under potential, but the line is 1.75 and too low for me to fancy getting involved.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Montpellier v Amiens Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

This is an interesting game because statistically I think Montpellier aren't a bad value bet here. Either they are being underestimated or Amiens overestimated, I’m not sure. In my eyes the home team should be closer to a -1 Asian Handicap. However, betting value doesn’t always guarantee success and this might be a potentially hard match for Montpellier. They will be facing a side hard to break down and who will fight hard for everything in a physical way. I don’t expect this match to be a classic by any means and it’s a likely under. Ultimately, I think Montpellier may well find a way to win the game, just. But the risk of a 0-0 or 1-1 draw puts me off backing them. When you factor in the poor pitch at this stadium, and the possible chance of a thunderstorm at some point, I’m happy enough to leave this one alone, although on pure price MHSC are generous odds.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Guingamp Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

It’s a shame that both teams miss some decent attacking talent here, otherwise it literally could've been full of goals. Monaco are renowned for dealing with injuries well, but some of the men they miss here are crucial. Thomas Lemar especially is a massive player for them in the final third, and Falcao’s goalscoring record speaks for itself. I still think Monaco will probably find a way to win this match, it’s amazing how often they manage it with a depleted squad. Guingamp are no mugs though and I expect they’ll stay in the game right until the end. If both teams were at full strength I’d certainly have been interested in backing over 3 goals, and maybe even Monaco on a handicap, However, due to the absences involved I'm going to have to refrain in this instance.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Angers v PSG Preview (4/11/17)

Match Preview

I said a couple of weeks ago that Dijon looked good value on a +2 handicap to cover against PSG and I’ll say the exact same thing here about Angers. The hosts are a solid team, hard to beat and generally keep matches quite close against anyone. This season they went toe to toe with Lyon and have picked up many more respectable results. Obviously, now the challenge facing them is tougher but PSG are missing a couple of key players here which could make a difference. Neymar, Angel Di Maria and Marquinhos, along with Thiago Motta all won't feature which is a blow for them.

Of course, PSG have managed fine before without key players, and even last week easily beat Nice 3-0 without Neymar. On the road things can be different though and the memory of Montpellier frustrating them (2-2) and the fortunate 2-1 success vs Dijon spring to mind. I think PSG will win, but not easily and if I had some bollocks I’d back Angers +2 on the Asian lines. However, I don’t want to risk anything and all it would take is a strong 10-20 mins from PSG and they could win by two or more without much sweat. I don’t think they’ll be at their best here though so for those presuming an easy win, maybe think again.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player

 

France Ligue 1 – Marseille v PSG Preview (22/10/17)

Match Preview

So the big Le Classique match and I desperately hope Marseille can be competitive here. PSG smashed them in this fixture 5-1 last season and have won on all of their last five visits to Le Stade Velodrome. In general, the visitors tend to reserve some of their best football for this fixture so it could get ugly if key players are in the mood, which I expect they will be. Marseille have got to find a way to somehow restrict PSG, but at the same time also need to maintain threat themselves. It will be interesting to see the tactical gameplan manager Rudi Garcia uses. He managed to draw 0-0 in Paris last year using a negative style, but this is a much better PSG team now.

There is no doubt in my mind that PSG can be targeted at the back. I personally think they've looked more prone to conceding this year, but it usually doesn’t matter because they score so many themselves. I’m really not sure here. Statistically, I think OM are a bit of value. But it’s so very difficult to rank PSG properly in this league due to their sheer strength. They are the best team obviously but exactly what high level will range depending who’s opinion you listen to. I think we’ll see an away win, but my instinct is that it won't be a complete cakewalk. OM can be competitive here if they have a proper gameplan. They tend to collapse vs the likes of Monaco and PSG though, so they simply can’t be backed in any form reliably.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

 

Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player