Dallas lost in midweek, 2-1 away against Chicago Fire. This was the first time they suffered back to back defeats in well over a year! That is a tremendous record in MLS but those two setbacks don't worry me at all. They totally dominated San Jose last weekend, yet came up against an inspired defence and goalkeeper (0-1). In Chicago midweek they only fielded three first team regulars, with a number of key players sat back at home in Dallas preparing for this massive weekend contest against their most bitter rivals. In the Texan derby, the stakes are high and both teams will be giving 110% to prevail.
Houston, quite frankly do have a massive problem away from home, if you’ll excuse the pun! They've lost all 5/5 road contests, with a horrible 3:14 goal differential which simply isn’t good enough. Their players are simply too soft on the road and don’t really have the guile or solid tactics to frustrate anyone. The big strength of Houston lies with their fast pacey attackers like Quioto, Ellis, Manotas & Torres. They will certainly pose a threat to the Dallas defence, but the bigger problem is at the other end where they’ve simply shipped in far too many goals on their travels.
I totally got my fingers burnt backing Dallas last week against San Jose. But I really felt they were unlucky to lose and came up against a team inspired at the back. There is absolutely no way that Houston will be able to offer up anywhere near as much resistance. The threat that the Dynamo have is in a different area upfront. They may well score which is one of the reasons why I like the idea of backing over 2.75 goals. Dallas are a -1 Asian Handicap favourite around the even money mark and this is good enough for me to take as well. Houston have such a poor road record and facing perhaps the best MLS team in their own backyard is likely to be a step too far. This is a Texan derby, so maybe the formbook can’t be considered quite so much, but I’m still confident enough to go with two selections here.
Recommended bet 1 unit: Dallas -1 (Asian) @1.99 (minimum odds acceptable 1.90)
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @2.02 (minimum odds acceptable (1.71)
Player importance explanation: K =Key, X =Regular XI starter, B = Bench player