Match Notes 2

Match Notes

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Valenciennes are teetering just above the relegation zone and won just 2 of their last 15 games . One of those was a shock 4-2 success at home to Lens a few weeks ago. This is a similar type of fixture so perhaps they can take some comfort from that result. Metz are deserving favourites although to have them so short around the 1.75 offers no value at all. I would say something around the 2.10-2.20 mark would be fairer. Despite all that, I am expecting them to win fairly easily tonight. This is going to be their last match of 2018 due to their scheduled fixture on Friday getting postponed. With nothing else to look ahead to, I expect a fully focused Metz who will aim to finish the year in style and on top of the table.

Metz haven’t been as free scoring as they were in the early stages of the season. They have faced a number of teams recently who have been willing to dig in and be really defensive against them though, so it’s perhaps understandable. My concern for Valenciennes here is that they have a habit of being way too open and potentially allowing big chances. They have just been fortunate themselves that they’ve faced poor attacks or negative teams like Paris FC, Beziers & Niort recently and been allowed to ‘get away with it’ Metz have the firepower and ability to fully take advantage. I like the overs for this game and I will be aggressive and take over 2.5 goals at a bigger piece. I just see this as better value than being conservative and taking over 2.25 at poorer odds. Metz could cover this line on their own, although I suspect Valenciennes will have a go themselves and might score. It’s a shame for the hosts that key playmaker Gaetan Robail isn’t available but this should still be quite an open game containing numerous chances.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @2.07

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Clermont are a team that I rate very highly. They have only lost 2 of their last 14 games and can at times play some excellent football which is nice on the eye to watch. They did lose last time out away at Paris FC 3-0 though and I wonder how much this will set them back. Of more concern are some fitness problems within the camp. Midfielder Manuel Perez misses out here which is a blow because they've had an extremely settled midfield/attack in recent weeks, near enough going unchanged for the last 7 games in this department. Perez started the season on the ACL injured list but back then they had Lorenzo Rajot available, but he is ruled out for the rest of the year and their squad depth could be exposed. The defence meanwhile doesn’t have any official abenes, but a number of players including Nsimba, Ogier, Sissoko and Phojo have been suffering fitness concerns in the last week or so due to injury or illness so might not be operating at full capacity.

Lens meanwhile, surprised me by beating Brest in their last fixture. Things hadn't been going well for Les Sang et or and that success managed to break a five game winless run. Prior to that they had come back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Lorient so the team clearly has some momentum right now. Their squad is in prime condition today apart from long term central defenders JK Duverne and Aleksandar Radovanovic who are both sidelined due to torn ACLs. If Clermont were at peak condition I would totally back them on a -0.25 Asian Handicap but I have a feeling Lens could take advantage of some of their defensive concerns today. I’m convinced the best bet is over 2 goals. Lens away games tend to have a history of containing goals and in recent times they had a wild 2-4 loss at Valenciennes and an exciting 2-2 draw at Les Havre. Something like a 2-2 outcome wouldn’t surprise me again and the overs are definitely my fancy here.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: Over 2 goals @1.77 

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The goal line for this match is a genuine 1.75, in fact some would argue it is close to 1.5! Even for French Ligue 2 standards this is a really low goal line, a bit too low if you ask me even though I wouldn't necessarily fancy goals. Paris FC matches this season average just 1.5 goals in them which is much lower than anyone else. However, there have been situations where Grenoble fixtures have exploded into life with the right goal at the right time. 0-0 is certainly a possibility here but all it takes is one mistake, a moment of brilliance or a mistake for someone to get ahead. In fact, some of Paris FC’s recent away performance lead me to think Grenoble could nick this game 1-0.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None

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I would personally say the odds are the wrong way around here. Chateauroux should probably be favourites in between a DNB and -0.25 line. Auxerre have been going well recently but are missing two players tonight, Jordan Adeoti (DM) and Remy Dugimont (ATT), both of whom have been playing well recently. Chateauroux have a couple of suspensions of their own and I see this being quite a tight match where one goal could prove the difference between the two teams. It’s a 0-0 candidate and both teams tend to be involved in fairly low scoring games at the moment. I think under 2.25 is worth backing because the true goal line for this game is more around the 2.0 side. Attacking firepower anc chances could be limited and taking this line means still some profit if exactly 2 goals are scored.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: Under 2.25 goals @1.85

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There has been a very interesting development ahead of this match. Niort head coach Patrice Lair resigned his position, supposedly for ‘personal reasons’ This is despite the team doing remarkably well in 6th position, much much better than anyone expected this season. Lair instilled a new level of discipline and has especially improved the defence. There were some rumours of certain players not happy with his methods but also he has made quotes about how poor the facilities are at Niort. Either way, I am sure the team will be affected negatively by this development. Lorient are one of the stronger teams in the division and can take advantage of this IMO. It doesn't help Niort’s cause that key defender Ibrahima Conte isn’t available for this match due to his parent club being Lorient. I like the idea of taking the hosts on a handicap here and see something like a 2-0 or 3-0 win.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet: Lorient -0.75 @1.82

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I keep waiting for Le Havre to actually string together a bunch of victories or go on a decent unbeaten run, but it never seems to materialise. On the face of things, this would appear to be a good opportunity. GFCA aren’t a great team, and although improved since their manager change a month or two ago it is definitely Le Havre who are the better team here. Whether they can be trusted as a -0.25 away favourite is rather dubious at the moment and any value is probably with GFCA in all honesty. HAC at least have striker Tino Kadewere at their disposal and presumably he will be in the XI again after scoring in what was his first ever start for the club in their previous Ligue 2 fixture. I’m predicting an away win, but I am not at all sure here and if Le Havre cocked up here by even losing I wouldn’t be surprised.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None