France Ligue 1 – Caen v Bastia Preview (27/8/16)


Caen preview

The Normandy side had a great come from behind win against Lorient on the opening day but they actually disappointed me at Lyon last week. They eventually lost 0-2 but it was a shame they offered little going forwards. Most Caen sides under Patrice Garande have a real good go, even against the bigger teams. But for some reason there was a flat element to Caen last Friday night. Ok, they were facing a good side but it was like they almost gave them too much much respect, and uncharacteristically sat back. I’m sure things will be a bit different now they face a team like Bastia at home. There’s some doubt about the participation of certain players, especially winger Herve Bazile.

Bastia preview

The Corsicans have had a really solid start to the season. They more than held their own against PSG on the opening day, perhaps unlucky to lose 0-1. Last week they were excellent at dispatching Lorien 3-0 on the road. This was a great result for a team not particularly known for it’s away success. I am not a great fan of watching them play under the management of Francois Ciccolini but I have to admit they are quite effective. He is a disciplined tactical coach and makes his sides hard to break down in any match. First and foremost he thinks of defence, so fits in well with French football! The squad has been very settled of late and I don’t expect him to make many changes here.

Conclusion & betting analysis

I usually like backing overs in Caen games, especially here at Le Stade Michel D’Ornano. They are a very proactive team and like to play attacking football. However, I’m the complete opposite when it comes to Bastia games. It’s best to avoid overs when they are in town and the risk of a low scoring match is simply too great. Maybe this match might develop into a decent affair, but if Bastia can keep it 0-0 for a while then it’s more likely to become a tight tactical battle. Caen won't have a lot of space to penetrate a solid defence and will probably get frustrated. Over 2 goals can be backed @ 1.84 and that is really generous for a Caen game. But the wise option is to refrain from betting here because the fear of losing is too much.

Prediction: 1-1
Recommended bet: None

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