France Ligue 1 – Metz v Angers Preview (27/8/16)


Metz preview

If you’d offered Metz three points after two games they’d have snapped your hand off. On the opening day they came from behind to beat Lille 3-2 and then actually gave a relatively good account of themselves vs PSG last week. At 1-0 down, they created 2 or 3 good chances to equalise and if they’d managed to take one, it might’ve been a different story. In the end, the 3-0 scoreline was probably a little bit harsh on them. I look on paper and this Metz side is currently one of the worst in the division, led by a coach who I’ve never really rated. But the feeling is good around the club and they are under no real pressure. Metz will really feel like this is a winnable game and in front of their own fans I think they’ll be on the front foot. I don’t expect a lot of changes to take place within the team.

Angers preview

The visitors have lost both of their matches by a 0-1 scoreline and this rather highlights their problem. Lack of goalscoring has been a big problem so far. It’s not that Angers haven't created chances, they simply haven't been able to finish them off. Famara Diedhiou & Karl Toko Ekambi thrives at ligue 2 level, but so far in the top flight they've fired blanks. It’s early days but I already sense a feeling of ‘second season syndrome with Angers. It could be a struggle for them this term and to lose this match would be real bad news for them. Squad condition looks fine, but something isn’t quite right at the moment.

Conclusion & betting analysis

The way things are going at the moment I actually think Metz will win this match. There’s much more of an element of confidence surrounding them and they are in what I call a promotion honeymoon, clearly enjoying life. I think this might be a good game to watch and both teams will fancy their chances. The atmosphere at Le Stade Saint Symphorien was really good on the opening day, the Metz players obviously extra motivated by their fans. Lets not forget on paper this is one of the worst teams in the ligue, so I’m reluctant to back them on a -0.25 handicap, even @ decent odds. The pick I do like is over 1.75 goals. Metz showed a willingness to attack last season, as was the case against Lille here in round one. Angers might not have scored, but it hasn’t been for lack of trying. Sooner or later they will hit the back of the net with the amount of chances being created. Over 1.75 is priced reasonably enough and even if only 2 goals are scored, this bet will half win!

Prediction: 2-1
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 1.75 goals @ 1.75 (minimum odds acceptable 1.65)