France Ligue 1 – PSG v Metz Preview (21/8/16)


PSG preview

The defending champions laboured to a 1-0 win away at Bastia last week. Their opponents put up some good resistance, although perhaps this wasn’t altogether a surprise because Bastia are well known for being strong defensively. A trip to Corsica is never easy either, so we can forgive PSG for being a little under par. This is their first home match of the season and I’m sure they’ll want to put on a show. Key centre back Thiago Silva is injured but that could almost prove irrelevant here. Metz won't have much of the ball and will likely create few chances. Edinson Cavani returns from injury and should spearhead the attack.

Metz preview

Les Grenats surprised everyone by beating Lille last week. They were largely outplayed and second best but managed to hang in the game and were rewarded with two dubious penalty calls which went in their favour. I still think on paper Metz have the weakest team in the whole ligue and will find it difficult to survive this season. Victory last week might give them some belief that they belong at this level but logically it’ll be a very tricky task to stay up. They can head into this game with no pressure on their shoulders because nobody expects them to avoid defeat. Winger Kevin Lejeune is injured but Metz should retain a similar team that started last week.

Conclusion & betting analysis

This is pure david vs goliath. The big dog of PSG against a Metz side who are favourites for relegation. The gulf in class is vast and I’d expect PSG to dominate right from the off. They were a bit rusty last weekend but I think we can attribute that to the opposition and also the difficult location. Metz won't offer the same sort of resistance and it would take a herculean effort for them to avoid defeat. The question isn't if PSG are going to win, but by how many? In terms of betting this is vitally important because the general asian handicap line is PSG -2.25. The goal line is 3.25 and I think the better bet of the two is the hosts. That way, if the match ends exactly 3-0 then the bet would be a full winner, or a 2-0 success would result in a half loss. I have a feeling PSG will want to put on a show for their fans and lay down a marker. They should have way too much for Metz and the only danger is if they get complacent or don’t focus as much as they should. Realistically, this should be a cakewalk and I think they’ll score at least three goals, probably more. Matz are unlikely to find the net and won’t get many chances.

Prediction: 4-0
Recommended bet 1 unit: PSG -2.25 @ 1.88 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)

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