Tippeligaen – Odd v Valerenga Preview (28/8/16)


Odd preview

The Skien outfit have really let their season slip. During the first half of the campaign they were a legitimate challenger to Rosenborg for the title, but a poor mid season slump has seen their form really drop. Fagermo’s men have shockingly only won 1 of their last 6 games, and the victory was against lowly Start, so doesn’t really count. A combination of factors have been to blame, but for now Odd seem to have lost their spark and desperately need it to re-ignite. They still sit second in the table but a number of challenges like Brann & Sarpsborg are starting to line up below. The heat is on and Odd need to respond sooner rather than later. Injuries haven't helped them recently, but at the time of writing the situation is expected to be better than it has been in recent weeks.

Valerenga preview

VIF’s winning run came to an end last week when they were held by Bodo. The Oslo club are still unbeaten in their last six matches though and picked up a whopping 14 points during this period. It’s been a great run for Kjetil Rekdal’s men and looks to have sent them clear of relegation. There’s still some work to be done but ‘Enga can breathe a lot more easily compared to a couple of months ago. They do have to cope with a double suspension blow at the back for this fixture, with both Waehler & Larsen ruled out. Valerenga have had a very settled team recently so this could cause some defensive issues. However, the most impressive thing about them of late is how they've dominated games and looked dangerous going forwards.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Both teams are in contrasting form ahead of the game. Odd are in a bit of a slump, whilst Valerenga are flying. Therefore, I’m surprised Odd are as short as 1.75 on a -0.5 asian handicap. I personally wouldn't be backing them @ that price and this is more because of reputation rather than current form. The Valerenga double suspension at the back does have to be considered though. Therefore, my preferred pick for the game is over 2.75 goals. Odd can be a bit hit or miss with overs and their offense isn’t doing anything great right now. But I sense this will be an end to end, open type game which contains quite a few goals. Valerenga might have to rely on their own attack force to bail them out of trouble. Over 2.75 is available around the 1.75 range here and there should be at least three goals for the pick to prevail.

Prediction: 2-2
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @ 1.75 (minimum odds acceptable 1.65)