Tippeligaen – Valerenga v Bodo Glimt Preview (19/8/16)


Valerenga preview

The Oslo side have suddenly found form and head into this contest having won their last four consecutive contests. There was little sign of this happening, but all the little things are starting to go their way now. They luckily beat Sarpsborg 2-0 despite conceding a lot of chances, then last week scored an injury time winner against Brann. The feel good factor is back and it’s clear to see all of the players are much more confident at the moment. Centre back Jonathan Nation and winger Daniel Holm are both injured for today’s game but neither have been starting recently so it shouldn't affect the team much. Coach Kjetil Rekdal has near enough kept the same XI in all of their four recent victories. There's’ only been the odd change here and there and I see no reason why he’d mess with a winning formula.

Bodo Glimt preview

The visitors have endured a fairly tough recent run which leaves them just outside of the relegation zone. Bodo went on a decent unbeaten run not so long ago, but have followed it up with a four game winless streak. This has prompted the club to sign four new players this week in order to change things up. This could make them instantly unpredictable, also because current players at Bodo might get the kick up the ass which they need! At the back they've signed German Sascha Mockenhaupt and he’ll replace Brede Moe who is out indefinitely with glandular fever. The other additions are all in midfield and attack and seem quite technically gifted. So this might signal a change in fortune for Bodo. They are unpredictable at the best of times and now there are even more question marks surrounding them!

Conclusion & betting analysis

Valerenga are very short priced here around the 1.50 mark. This doesn’t surprise me. They have, and always will be one of the most overrated sides in Norway because of reputation. That said, at least VIF do come into the match in great form on the back of four straight wins. It would be a little foolish to bet against them, but on the other hand who would want to back the hosts on a -1.25 handicap? Bodo aren’t that bad and they might significantly improve thanks to their new signings. The bet I like for this match is over 3 goals. It’s been quite noticeable how open Valerenga recent games have been, and unless Bodo suddenly have a massive change of tactic then they'll come here looking to attack as well. I have been stung by a few over bets in Norway recently but the worst outcome I see here is a push. There should be at least 3 goals, with a good chance of 4+ being netted. Ultimately, I think Valerenga will continue their winning run, maybe by the same 3-2 scoreline which they won last week.

Prediction: 3-2
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 3 goals @ 1.90 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)

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