France Ligue 1 – Dijon v Lorient Preview (22/10/16)


Dijon preview

  • Les Rouges were denied by a controversial late penalty away at St Etienne last week, holding them to a 1-1 draw. They are however, unbeaten in three straight games.
  • Last week was the best they defended all season, but I think it was a one off. They aren't particularly known for their defensive solidity.
  • Matters aren’t helped by the suspension of key centre back Cedric Varrault, who is a big leader of this team. Right back Vincent Rufli is injured, and left back Bouka Moutou remains out too.
  • Their shield in defensive midfield, veteran Florent Balmont is another casualty, but Dijon are at full strength in attack.  They’ve only lost once at home so far this season.

Lorient preview

  • A total of 7 defeats in 9 games and a 100% losing away record sees Lorient remain second bottom of the table.
  • The situation is quite dire and they've put in a number of poor performances. Plenty of errors have been made and in both boxes they’ve constantly been lacking.
  • Coach Sylvain Ripoll has tried many different formulas and starting XIs, but not a lot seems to be working.
  • He’s still without leading striker Benjamin Moukandjo & winger Jimmy Cabot due to injury. A few other players are either left out or regaining match fitness with the reserves.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • This is a battle between 16th and 19th in the table. Both will fancy their chances of beating each other and both really would love to obtain three points.
  • Dijon have looked competitive upon promotion. They know they are going to have to fight hard to survive, but they have shown potential in all areas of the field.
  • All of their last three home games have been entertaining encounters, 4-2, 3-0 and 3-3 respectively. They certainly haven't abandoned the attacking approach which served them so well in Ligue 2.
  • In recent years, Lorient matches have been a hotbed for goals, yet not so much this season. Nevertheless, in these sort of fixtures where both teams fancy their chances an open encounter can develop.
  • With that in mind, over 2.25 goals around the 1.90 mark catches my eye and I’m willing to back it.
  • I think Dijon on a -0.25 also needs to be taken. Lorient have lost every single away match and their overall form is so poor that odds of 1.96 on a -0.25 are simply too big to ignore.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bets both 1 unit: Dijon -0.25 @ 1.96 & Over 2.25 goals @ 1.91