France Ligue 1 – Lille v Bastia Preview (22/10/16)


Lille preview

  • Defeat at Guingamp last week (0-1) was their sixth of the season and things certainly aren’t rosy in the Lyon garden.
  • Off the field, the club is being taken over by new owners which might give them a boost, but the standard of their performances on the field has been terrible.
  • Coach Frederic Antonetti is under some pressure and he isn’t helped by a string of injuries upfront. Bautheac, De Preville, Lopes, Mendes, & Obbadi, all of whom are potential starters.
  • Lille have looked fairly toothless up front all season anyway only scoring 8 goals in 9 games. Without these options it will further decrease their threat.

Bastia preview

  • The Corsicans suffered a rare home loss last week, going down 1-2 against Angers.
  • Bastia are a limited side and usually very poor away. They’ve lost 3 out of 4 road trips and failed to score in any of their last three.
  • No new injuries to deal with and striker Enzo Crivelli is the most notable absentee due to suspension.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Quite how Lille can be as short as 1.80 to win this match is a mystery. They are playing really badly at the moment and this price is based on sheer reputation.
  • Bastia are a poor road team but can defend well sometimes and will make themselves hard to break down.
  • I expect this to be a dire match between a team that is lacking confidence and can’t score, facing a side that parks the bus.
  • I am certainly not foolish enough to back Lille and if I had to choose then I’d side with the visitors +0.75. However, betting on Bastia away from home is usually just throwing money away.
  • The goal line is set between 1.75 and 2.0 and this looks quite fair. I certainly don’t expect a classic and it’s a major 0-0 contender. Maybe Bastia could even sneak a tight win.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None