France Ligue 1 – Lille v PSG Preview (28/10/16)


Lille preview

  • Victory at home to Bastia (2-1) last week came as a welcome relief to everyone and moved Les Dogues out of the relegation zone.
  • Things are far from rosy in the LOSC garden though. They have only beaten two promoted teams, plus a Bastia outfit renowned for being horrible away. They have constantly flopped when facing better opposition.
  • The hosts aren't helped by a string of injuries which are severely weakening them. At the back, key man Marko Basa is ruled out, whilst midfield Mounir Obbadi is another casualty.
  • The bigger issues are in attack though where nearly half a dozen players miss out. These includes the likes of Bautheac, Lopes & Ryan Mendes. Eder will lead the line upfront but they have nothing else available in the striking department barring unproven youngsters.

PSG preview

  • The defending champions slipped further behind Nice after only drawing 0-0 at home to arch rivals Marseille last week. Despite being hardly threatened by OM, they lacked the penetration needed to break down what was a resolute side.
  • Perhaps a similar test awaits here. PSG don’t look as good under the management of Unai Emery. They’ve already dropped a surprise number of points and their goalscoring efficiency is nowhere near as good if you take away their easy wins against promoted sides, and the Caen 6-0.
  • The squad is at full strength, minus right back Serge Aurier and playmaker Javier Pastore.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • It’s difficult to see how Lille are going to score a goal here. They have struggled in offense at the best of times this season anyway, but minus a lot of attacking players I don’t expect them to create much.
  • The hosts will try and take a leaf out of OM’s textbook and frustrate PSG as much as they can. The visitors might struggle to break them down too.
  • Something isn't right with PSG this season. They have yet to click properly under their new manager and I think some teams in this ligue are starting to sniff some weakness.
  • In five away games, they’ve only covered their asian handicap line on one occasion, which was the 6-0 win at Caen. That big success is starting to look like a bit of a one off though.
  • They can be backed on a -1 or even a -0.75 handicap here, which in theory should be a fairly safe bet. PSG are much the better side and their high chance of keeping a clean sheet might make the bet viable.
  • However, the threat of a 0-0 or them not covering fully puts me off. Until PSG are clearly firing on all cylinders then I’m happy to leave them alone.

Prediction: 0-1

Recommended bet: None