France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Metz Preview (16/10/16)

om-metzMarseille preview

  • OM are once again underachieving and find themselves as low as 16th heading into this match. They should've picked up more points but blown a number of good positions.
  • They have at least shown an improvement in home form this season, unbeaten so far at the Velodrome and only conceding one goal.
  • Key playmaker Remy Cabella is injured but crucial midfielder Lass Diarra returns after  nearly a 2 month layoff.
  • Expectations will be high for OM tonight. Fans will expect an easy win so if things start to go badly then expect a poisonous atmosphere around the Velodrome.

Metz preview

  • Les Grenats are so far the best performing promoted side and are situated in 10th position.
  • They are however, reeling after suffering a humiliating 1-7 home defeat to Monaco just prior to the international break.
  • There have been times when they’ve looked out of their depth a bit at Ligue 1 level, but on other occasions have shown great spirit. The first goal is often crucial in their games.
  • Metz have three suspended players to regular starters. Centre back Simon Falette and the midfield duo of Doukoure & Cohade will all miss out.
  • Metz have kept three consecutive clean sheets on the road and picked up victories at Nantes and Montpellier, which is fairly impressive.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Monaco thrashed Metz 7-1 a couple of weeks ago and as a result everyone is suddenly expecting Marseille to do something similar.
  • This however, is a completely different situation. Marseille regularly struggle in the position of a big favourite and with huge expectations on their shoulders they might have issues once again.
  • OM are on a -1.25 handicap but it would be very risky backing them. The last time they covered this sort of line at home was a long time ago.
  • On paper, the hosts should of course prevail quite easily. But Metz might surprise a lot of people here. They have kept a lot of clean sheets on the road and even held PSG for nearly an hour in Paris. They’ll be difficult to penetrate.
  • In addition, Marseille often make individual mistakes at the back and might over-commit. I could see Metz scoring a goal on the break or from a sert piece.
  • I think a 1-1 draw or a 2-1 home win is the most likely outcome. OM on a -1.25 line or over 3 goals doesn’t interest me at all, and with a gun to my head I would actually bet the opposite outcomes.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None