France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Montpellier Preview (21/10/16)


Monaco preview

  • Les Monegasques lost last week at Toulouse (1-3) and are now down to third place in the table. They are four points adrift of top side Nice.
  • Leonardo Jardim’s men played on Tuesday night away against CSKA Moscow in the Champions League, so there could be an element of fatigue, both physical and mental ahead of this game.
  • For these reasons, predicting the starting XI is extremely difficult. A number of players could be rested out or benched.
  • Squad depth is good for Monaco though and they always have a range of youngsters who can fill in and do a decent job.

Montpellier preview

  • Victory against Caen (3-2) last week was their first since the opening day of the season and came as a welcome boost.
  • Striker Casimir Ninga who scored twice in that contest is ruled out for the rest of the season due to injury. This is a massive blow because he’d been in good form.
  • With Steve Mounie suspended, then Montpellier will definitely lack for pace and threat going forwards and their attack force will have a different look about it.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • I was considering taking the overs here, but with a goal line between 2.5 and 2.75 it looks too steep.
  • Monaco could be tired after their midweek match and opt to rest a few players, whilst Montpellier will be hurting after Ninga’s injury.
  • The hosts are a short priced 1.60 favourite, and whilst they should get the job done are an easy swerve because the value isn't there.
  • This smells of a good old Monaco ugly win by a one goal margin. I doubt they will play that well, but will probably get the job done.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None