France Ligue 1 – Bastia v Montpellier Preview (19/11/16)

Bastia preview

  • A run of 4 losses in 5 games has put Bastia just one point above the relegation zone and under some pressure. Not a lot of things have been going their way recently.
  • The Corsicans have injuries and suspensions right across the board. The most notable absences are goalkeeper JL Leca, midfielder Yannick Cahuzac & centre back Sebastian Squillaci. The overall squad depth is being tested to the full though today.
  • Bastia are known for home strength. They are so good in front of their own fans and can never be underestimated here. However, SCB have already suffered 2 losses out of 6 at Le Stade Furiani this season.

Montpellier preview

  • An excellent 3-1 win against Marseille just before the international break has given them some breathing space on the relegation zone. MHSC have only lost 1 of their last 5 games.
  • The visitors have had a number of injury and suspension problems recently, but the situation is improving. Only midfielder Yacouba Sylla and striker Casimir Ninga are ruled out, the latter for the whole season.
  • No team has conceded more goals than Montpellier (26) but nobody outside of the top four places has scored more goals than them either, netting 19 times.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • There is quite a strong rivalry between the two teams, it’s a Mediterranean derby and I expect a spicy encounter full of passion and commitment.
  • Montpellier coach Frederic Hantz is suspended and he returns to the club where he is considered a hero and legend. It will be an emotional match for him.
  • Montpellier have been a huge over team in recent weeks with all of their last five matches going well over the 2.5 mark. However, they face a Bastia team who aren’t known for being involved in many classics.
  • Montpellier have the edge in terms of team news and form. However, the away team doesn’t have a great record in this fixture and it’s never a great idea to bet against Bastia at the Furiani.
  • Despite the low scoring nature of a lot of Bastia games, over 2 goals @ around the 1.85 mark has tempted me in. Montpellier fixtures are so open that I will risk backing this bet. It’s a slight gamble but unless something dramatically changes there should hopefully be at least a couple of goals here.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.86