France Ligue 1 – Bordeaux v Dijon Preview (26/11/16)

Bordeaux preview

  • Les Girondins have drawn 5 of their last 7 games and let more points slip through their fingers last week by conceding a late equaliser against Guingamp.
  • There’s clearly plenty of ability within this Bordeaux team but they lack consistency and can’t string together a complete 90 mins very often. They have too many sloppy phases in matches and a general lack of clean sheets this season also has to be a concern.
  • In this regard, they aren’t helped by the absence of starting keeper Cedric Carrasso who remains injured. However, the rest of the squad is in good condition minus some long term casualties.
  • Les Girondins have only lost once at home this season and the general demeanor of their performances in front of their own fans has been encouraging under the management of Jocelyn Gourvennec.

Dijon preview

  • A defeat against Nancy last week (0-1) ended a run of six games without a loss. It was an avoidable defeat though because they missed a crucial penalty when the scoreline was 0-0 with only 20 mins left and were ultimately punished for this mistake.
  • Les Rouges have proved themselves to be competitive at Ligue 1 level and have adapted their away tactics to be different compared to the natural positive mindset of this tea.
  • Dijon have only scored two goals on their travels thus far and the coach sets them up in a much more disciplined and organised formation compared to home games in which they are far more offensive. I would expect a similar sort of approach here as they hope to frustrate Bordeaux.
  • Veteran defensive midfielder Florent Balmont is still injured, as is Marvin Martin who suffered yet another setback last week. The ex Lille man has hardly played any minutes this season, so won’t be missed.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Dijon have proved to be a tougher nut to crack away from home than many expected. They’ve shown good defensive organisation and I think similar sort of tactics will be employed again here.
  • Bordeaux have the extra quality and individuals who could make a difference. This hasn’t occurred often enough for their liking this season but it’s the sort of match where one moment of class could be crucial.
  • The hosts are a short priced 1.75 favourite and this simply isn't generous enough for a team that draws too many games. There’s every chance this could end all square so I’m not interested in backing them.
  • Likewise, the over/under line is set between 2.25 and 2.5 which isn’t tempting enough. If this game opened up then it wouldn't be the biggest surprise but it would probably require early goals due the the likelihood of Dijon preferring to sit back.
  • Ultimately, I think Bordeaux will find a way to win, albeit only just. I prefer to leave this game alone and don’t see it as a great betting prospect.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None