France Ligue 1 – Metz v Lorient Preview (26/11/16)

Metz preview

  • Les Grenats picked up a surprising win away against Toulouse last week (2-1). They were pretty solid defensively and took their chances at the other end. The victory was a welcome boost ending a poor run of results.
  • Metz have the second worst home record in the league conceding 16 goals here in just 6 games. It’s true seven of those came against Monaco but they seem less solid in front of their own fans.
  • Key striker Mevlut Erding is still injured and midfield playmaker Yann Jouffre is rated doubtful and might not be risked with a midweek match coming up.

Lorient preview

  • No joy yet for new coach Bernard Casoni who has suffered two defeats in his first two games in charge. Lorient have arguably looked a bit better but are still conceding too many goals at the wrong time.
  • Les Merlus are rock bottom of the table on just seven points. They've already suffered a massive 10/13 defeats this season and find themselves adrift of safety.
  • First choice goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte and big centre back Mickael Ciani are both still injured, but the rest of the squad has improved its health.Casoni has more weapons to chose from this week.
  • FCL have lost all of their away games this season and have been consistently poor on the road for the last few years.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • It’s a surprise to see Metz as a slight underdog on a DNB handicap in some places. Lorient have been the worst side in Ligue 1 this season and have been appalling away from home.
  • Having said that, I don’t particularly rate Metz. They are situated in midtable but they are possibly the second worst side in the division right now. They aren’t a team you can trust and I fully expect them to be involved heavily in the relegation battle this season.
  • If I had any sort of faith in Metz then I would back them DNB. This is an inflated price against a poor Lorient. But the visitors have recently had a coaching change and this is the first winnable game for Bernard Casoni after facing Bordeaux and Monaco, both of whom are significantly better than Metz.
  • I suspect this will be an open game of football and could be an over 2.5 affair. Both sides should fancy their chances of victory leading to a potentially entertaining game.
  • However, there is little value on a goal line priced between 2.25 and 2.5. There is still uncertainty surrounding Lorient with a new coach on board and the Metz offense can stutter without key striker Mevlut Erding.
  • There were definitely some temptations here but ultimately I’ve decided not to bet. This is another game worth watching for its in-running potential though.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None