France Ligue 1 – Montpellier v Marseille Preview (4/11/16)


Montpellier preview

  • Came from 0-2 down away from home against Lorient last week and managed to rescue a point.
  • Just one win and one clean sheet since the opening day of the season means they are hovering just above the relegation zone.
  • They've conceded a whopping 25 goals which is significantly more than any other team in Ligue 1.
  • Last week they lost half a dozen players to illness. All of those are back now but no1 keeper Jourdren and centre back Daniel Congre are both still injured, along with Lacey striker Ninga who is out for the rest of the season.

Marseille preview

  • New coach Rudi Garcia has started life with a couple of 0-0 draws. OM have looked solid defensively and more organised, but struggled in an offensive way.
  • Matters won't be helped by the loss of striker Bafetimbi Gomis who is injured tonight. Everyone else is available with the exception of Abou Diaby, who's always injured!
  • All previous results from OM should be ignored. This is a new regime under Garcia who is a very experienced coach and brings about his own style.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • South Coast derby between a couple of teams who don't really like each other. I expect a committed performance from both and it could be quite a spicy encounter.
  • This match has the feel of an over 2.5 match about it. Montpellier have been involved in a lot of higher scoring matches this season and cannot defend well.
  • Howver, Rudy Garcia's start at the helm of OM is off putting. They look much more organised and on the back of consecutive 0-0s, it's probably not the best idea to back the overs, even if the line is a tempting 2.25.
  • Montpellier are slight favourites on a DNB handicap but I'm not interested in betting here. This one is capable of going either way and until we see OM for a prolonged period of time under Garcia, it'd probably be best to swerve their fixtures.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None