France Ligue 1 – Toulouse v Metz Preview (19/11/16)

Toulouse preview

  • TFC are winless in three games but are still situated in seventh spot and doing quite well.
  • They have an excellent home record under Pascal Dupraz and only two defeats against Lyon have tarnished his reign here. Every other Dupraz home game has resulted in a victory.
  • Winger Jimmy Durmaz is suspended. Everyone else of significance is available, although some guys like Diop and Braithwaite are carrying knocks and might only start from the bench.

Metz preview

  • A 0-0 draw at home to 10 man St Etienne ended a poor four game losing streak, but Metz are definitely on a downward curve.
  • They've failed to score in 6 of their last 8 fixtures and won't be helped by the loss of key striker Mevlut Erding to injury, or midfielder Renaud Cohade to suspension.
  • Metz don’t have a bad away record this season, picking up seven points so far. But their overall form since the early stages of the season has significantly gotten worse.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Toulouse are a -1 Asian handicap favourite and this seems fair enough. They are very strong at home under Dupraz and Metz are starting to look like the pre season relegation candidates that they were in August.
  • At worst, I’d expect TFC to win the game by a one goal margin so I think it’s worth backing them on this handicap.
  • Simply put, they are by far the better team and I’d be surprised if Metz threatened much. Without Erding upfront their are losing a key performer and I don’t expect they’ll create many chances.
  • This may well be an over 2.5 match as well, but you might need Toulouse to fully cover that line by themselves. So I prefer to stick with the -1 pick and I think the most likely scoreline is 2-0 or 3-0.

Prediction: 2-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Toulouse -1 (asian) @ 1.83