France Ligue 2 – Ajaccio v Amiens Preview (29/11/16)

Ajaccio preview

  • ACA are an inconsistent side but haven’t been playing too badly recently. They are unbeaten in three games and have enjoyed some good performances facing stronger teams of late.
  • A 1-1 draw away at in-form Niort has to be classed as a good outcome, even though they were significantly stronger in the second half and probably should’ve won. That followed up from an excellent 2-0 win against Strasbourg.
  • ACA have the third best home record in the league, winning 5 out of 8 here. Their two defeats were facing lesser opponents in which they were a strong favourite.
  • The squad is in good condition with few injuries. No1 keeper Riffi Mandanda is ruled out, but his deputy Jules Goda is virtually no downgrade. He made an excellent penalty save on Friday night to only keep them 0-1 down, and that eventually proved crucial.

Amiens preview

  • Christophe Pellisier’s side continue to overachieve and are now back in fourth place following an excellent 3-0 win against Brest on Saturday. They totally dominated the second half and if they’d won 4 or 5 nil then it wouldn't have been undeserved.
  • It was a timely win for Amiens because they looked to be losing their way a bit, certainly from an offensive point of view. Prior to that game they’d failed to score in any of their last four, but it was noticeable how much more dangerous they were.
  • At the back things have been much better. The visitors have kept clean sheets in four of their last five games and have generally been difficult to penetrate all season.
  • A very similar squad that featured on Saturday is retained again. Their only injuries are to long term casualties.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Ajaccio have had an extra day of rest and preparation. This could be important, especially as Amiens now have a long trip to Corsica. Maybe the visitors will be flat after their excellent win and performance. It could be hard to maintain that sort of display here.
  • This is a place nobody likes to visit, especially in midweek. I have to give Ajaccio the edge due to their great home record. I don’t expect this’ll be a classic by any means but a tight ACA victory is the most likely outcome.
  • Ajaccio are often underestimated by the bookies and that looks to be the case again here. They are priced between a -0.25 and DNB favourite which looks a little on the generous side.
  • However, despite this I will refrain from betting. Amiens could be hard to break down and their defensive record has to be respected. If this match ended 0-0 it wouldn't surprise me. I also have a nasty habit of losing in Ajaccio games this season. Their only two home defeats were when I backed them!
  • ACA tend to have a knack of doing what’s not expected of them. A lot of people will look at this game and predict them to win based on many factors. But I have seen the Corsicans struggle in this sort of situation before, so I’ll be cautious.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None