France Ligue 2 – Amiens v Brest Preview (26/11/16)

Amiens preview

  • After a stunning start to the season in which they shocked everyone, Amiens’ form has definitely tailed off a bit. They’ve only won 1 of their last 7 games, although do remain fairly hard to beat.
  • They produced an excellent defensive display to draw 0-0 at Le Havre last week and will fight hard for everything. There is great organisation, team spirit and determination within this squad.
  • Home form isn’t that great. Christophe Pellisier’s men have only won 2 of their 7 matches here at Le Stade de la Licorne. Most of their home match have been really low scoring.
  • With the exception of some long term injuries, the squad is actually in decent health. They have no suspensions or new casualties and welcome back important midfielder Thomas Monconduit after missing out last week.

Brest preview

  • Two defeats in their last three games has seen Brest lose top spot, although they are still well situated in the table. A victory here would give them a five point cushion ahead of third placed Lens.
  • The Brittany outfit are the only remaining unbeaten away side in Ligue 2, winning 3 and drawing 4 on the road so far. The big difference is that they don’t concede many goals on their travels, shipping in just four goals.
  • Coach Jean Marc Furlan said he was disappointed with how his side defended on Monday night during the defeat to Niort (2-3). This could prompt him to prepare a more conservative gameplan for today.
  • Brest aren’t helped by issues at left back with Nganioni still injured. With Gaetan Belaud also struggling on the right hand side of defence, it’s clear where their issues lie.
  • Defensive midfielder Alexandre Coeff and winger Valentin Lavigne are also both still injured and the loss of the former was also quite noticeable on Monday. He had previously started every single fixture.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Amiens haven’t scored in any of their last four matches, three of which have ended 0-0. They are struggling in front of goal but are keeping it tight at the back. A total of 6 out of 7 home games have ended under 2.5 this year and I’m expecting something similar.
  • Brest play some nice football at times under Jean Marc Furlan, he has a history of being a proactive and positive manager. However, on the road he’s been willing to set up much more rigid. Their last two away wins have been tight 1-0s at Laval and Tours
  • I’m surprised that Amiens are -0.25 favourites here. They were underrated for most of the season but have since become overrated a bit. Brest are definitely the better team and considering they are unbeaten away from home, the +0.25 handicap on them could have some appeal.
  • I won’t get involved though because I see this being a very tight match with chancers at a premium. If Amiens did get ahead they would be like a dog with a bone and not relinquish their advantage easily.
  • The goal line is set between 2.0 and 2.25 which actually looks a little high. I’d be surprised if this match goes over but as I’ve mentioned before, I’m not a great fan of taking under bets.

Prediction: 0-0

Recommended bet: None