France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v Bourg-en-Bresse Preview (18/11/16)

Valenciennes preview

  • Three straight defeats have stalled VA’s progress following a good run of results. They are playing better than scorelines might suggest, but often find ways of messing up.
  • VA have the second worst defensive record in the ligue, a surprise when you consider the personnel available on their roster. They have been more attack minded this year and left holes at the back.
  • Squad condition is good with few injuries or suspensions to anyone significant.
  • The northern outfit have lost 2 of their last 3 at home but in general they’ve looked much better in front of their own fans this season, willing to gamble more instead of settling for a draw.

Bourg-en-Bresse preview

  • I feel they are naturally an attack minded side but a lot of Bourg’s recent games have ended with surprisingly few goals in them.
  • Centre back duo Bruce Abdoulaye & Ange Digbeu are both ruled out. The only other absentee of note is striker Boussaha due to suspension.
  • They are a difficult side to predict and capable of anything. I’m not entirely sure what the Bourg gameplan will be tonight which makes them a dangerous animal.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • There’s no doubt in my own personal mind that Valenciennes are the better team. In literally every area of the field they have extra quality and some exciting talent. However, this team finds too many ways to mess up games which is concerning.
  • VA have become a strong over 2.5 team this year and have no problems scoring goals. I think this will be an open game of football, although Bourg’s stats are very off putting when considering an over bet.
  • Seven of the visitors’ last eight games have all ended under 2.5 with only one of those contests in which both teams scored. Over 2.25 is only around the 1.85 mark and simply too short to warrant a bet.
  • I fancy Valenciennes will get the three points in an open contest. But they are too short on a -0.25 handicap around the 1.80 mark.
  • Frustratingly, this game is one which I will leave alone. The value just isn’t there and the strange, unexpected trends in Bourg’s recent results ensure this is a difficult contest to bet in.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None