France Ligue 1 – Bastia v Metz Preview (10/12/16)

Bastia preview

  • It’s now been nine games since Bastia last won a Ligue 1 fixture. This poor run leaves them rooted inside the relegation zone.
  • This is a much more winnable fixture though and SCB know they simply have to take advantage of these sort of matchups.
  • Key midfielder and captain Yannick Cahuzac is suspended, but the rest of the squad is close to full health, minus longer term absentees.
  • Le Stade Furiani is a difficult place to visit but Bastia’s measly total of 6 goals scored here in 6 games is hardly a great return. They lack firepower.

Metz preview

  • Les Grenats were sensationally beating Lyon 1-0 last week when the match was stopped because of crowd violence. Lyon keeper Anthony Lopes was hit by a firecracker forcing the abandonment.
  • This isn’t great news for Metz who will probably now lose that game automatically and might get more punishment too. It’s a big dark cloud hanging over the club at the moment.
  • On the field, Metz have been surprisingly competitive this season but I still consider them one of the weakest sides in the division. Some of their results, such as losing 4-0 at Nancy prove this fact.
  • The visitors are missing a key player from all areas of the field. At the back, Simon Falette misses out whilst Yann Jouffre (CM) & Mevlut Erding (ATT) are both injured.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Bastia haven’t won any of their last nine games but this is a great chance for them to register three points. They are always strong at home and should've won all of their last three games here.
  • I have to wonder what sort of mindset Metz are in after last week’s shenanigans. It really can’t have helped them both on or off the field and the players could be in a fragile state mentally.
  • Bastia can be backed around the 2.0 mark, which isn’t too bad. I prefer to take a -0.25 handicap for extra security and this is acceptable around the 1.70 mark.
  • The loss of key midfielder Yannick Cahuzac is a blow for SCB, but Metz are also missing important players and are arguably more badly affected. It’s going to be a tricky tip to Corsica for them.
  • This might be a surprisingly open fixture considering who is involved but I prefer just to stick with the Bastia -0.25 pick. At this location, they should have too much for Metz.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Bastia -0.25 @ 1.72

Minimum odds acceptable 1.65