France Ligue 1 – Metz v Guingamp Preview (21/12/16)

Metz preview

  • Les Grenats have lost 7 of their last 10 games and are now hovering just one place above the relegation zone.
  • Their last three defeats have all been on the road. The last time they played at home the game ended in abandonment against Lyon due to the firecracker incident. One of the stands is closed tonight so there could be a reduced attendance.
  • Metz have injuries to five regular starters, the most notable being striker Mevlut Erding and playmakers Yann Jouffre & Kevin Lejeune. First choice keeper Thomas Didillon is also a casualty.

Guingamp preview

  • Antoine Kombouare’s men obtained a magnificent victory at home to PSG on Saturday. They put in a great performance and everyone should be on a massive high heading into this game.
  • Guingamp can be an inconsistent side though, literally capable of anything. Their road form is average, capable of good or bad.
  • Squad condition is pretty good, although central defender Jeremy Sorbon is ruled out injured. The ex Caen player has started all 18 Ligue 1 games for them this season, featuring in every single minute!

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Guingamp are the better team and really should be winning this sort of match. But I wonder if they’ll be overconfident after beating PSG? Everyone is singing their praises right now and there’s a good chance they could treat Metz too lightly.
  • The visitors are on a -0.25 handicap so even the bookies are overrating them too much as well. Guingamp are the better side but they should only be on a NDB handicap here, these odds look too short.
  • In the match which was abandoned against Lyon, Metz actually played really well and were leading 1-0. I was lucky that game was called off because I’d backed Lyon -1 that day. I personally think the pick would’ve lost. Metz can be dangerous opposition at home if they get ahead.
  • This probably has a good chance of ending over 2.5. Metz games tend to be high scoring and Guingamp do occasionally get sucked into shootouts.
  • However, Guingamp are one of the bigger under sides in Ligue 1. Their match against PSG at the weekend was one of the few times any of their games have gone over 2.5 this season.
  • If the goal line was 2.0 at a decent price, I’d back it. But only over 2.25 is available at around the 1.85 mark. This isn’t tempting enough, so I’ll leave the match alone.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None

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